Fri Jul 27, 2012 at 08:00:00 AM EDT
Attack Ads: Despite spending $100 million on attack ads, the presidential campaigns and allies have little to show for their spending spree. Public opinion polls have shown little to no movement over the last few months despite the ad onslaught.
Electoral College Tie: CNN has two good articles on the possibility of a tied Electoral College and how it is quite possible. CNN also provides 8 possible ways for the Electoral College involving some very plausible combinations of states. Click here to view the maps.
You Didn’t Build That: Four words (well technically five depending how you count) are hurting President Obama’s campaign as they have become a favorite attack of Republicans and the Romney campaign. Here is a breakdown of how it is hurting Obama.
Rubio-Giuliani: Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani has came out in favor of nominating Senator Marco Rubio for Vice-President. Giuliani believes Rubio would be the strongest fit for Romney and for the GOP’s future.
Gun Control: President Obama has opened up on the gun control issue and Democrats are taking cover. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid refused to enter the political minefield brought up by the President as he refused to discuss any attempts to bring forward gun control legislation next year and said the Senate already has a full schedule this year.
African-American Turnout: Democrats are worried about African-American turnout in Pennsylvania. Specifically they fear high unemployment and the new voter ID law will cause African-American turnout to be lower than in 2008. I tend to disagree with this analysis. African-Americans turned out in 2010 in Pennsylvania at near 2008 numbers.
Pentagon Cuts: Four days before the presidental election, tens of thousands of Defense Department civilian employees will receive layoff notices if the fiscal cliff is not addressed. This is electorally significant as a disproportionate number of the notices will be sent to Florida and Virginia residents.
My friend Daniel here is high on Wisconsin Republican (former Governor and HHS Secrtary), Tommy Thompson …
Thompson has a GOP Primary contest coming up on August 14…
And Tea Party people are after him for being a bit ‘moderate on Healthcare in the past’….
“While Tommy Thompson has always been at the forefront of health care reform, he has been an aggressive, consistent and outspoken opponent of Obamacare as it harms both the quality of care while introducing 21 new taxes further burdening businesses struggling to make ends meet in an economy driven to a low point by President Obama,” Nemoir said in a statement. “Any effort to say otherwise would be a gross misrepresentation of his position.”
A Marquette Law School poll earlier this month showed the race was tightening ahead of the Aug. 14 primary, with wealthy businessman Eric Hovde closing in on Thompson, and Neumann and state Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald well behind. Thompson still had a double-digit lead over his opponents and was the only Republican candidate ahead of Rep. Tammy Baldwin, the Democrat running for the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Sen. Herb Kohl.
The race has enormous implications nationally. A GOP victory in the state would give Republicans a major shot at regaining control of the Senate, which currently stands at 53-47 in favor of the Democrats.
Thompson’s tea party opponents believe that his health care stances give them an opening with GOP primary voters who detest the law. While Thompson has laid out an ambitious plan to replace the health care law, some comments he made before he became a Senate candidate are coming back to haunt him.
In 2006, he hailed the individual mandate included in the Massachusetts health care law. In 2009, he called a Democratic bill approved by the Senate Finance Committee an “important” step to expand coverage and provide “affordable, high-quality health care for all.” Eager to hear praise from a prominent Republican, Obama touted Thompson’s remarks.
His poll ratings are in stratosphere *…..
He has more money in the political bank than the majority of the countries Governor’s combined….
And just before the Democratic Convention he’s holding a get together for policy Democrats…..
Anderew Cuomo IS running for President in 2016 folks….
That is if Hillary Clinton DOES NOT run…..
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) “has studiously avoided talk of a 2016 White House run, but he has positioned himself on two fronts, amassing the nation’s largest gubernatorial war chest and organizing a series of August policy summits with Democratic leaders and academics,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Mr. Cuomo has raised nearly $1 million a month since he took office in January 2011 and has about $19.3 million to spend –more than 40 other governors combined… Meanwhile, just two weeks before his party gathers on Sept. 3 for the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, N.C., Mr. Cuomo is hosting a summit of his own, inviting Clinton administration veterans and others to Manhattan for a policy forum.”
*A new Quinnipiac poll finds New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) with a staggering 73% to 16% approval rating, an all-time high.
Perhaps even more striking, Cuomo holds a 69% to 19% approval rate among Republicans.
|Thursday, July 26|
Romney/Bush/Rubio: Jeb Bush has urged Mitt Romney to select Florida US Senator Marco Rubio to be his vice presidential choice. Bush has been making the push in public and private as of late, but ruled out himself being a candidate for vice president. He recently admitted he should have ran for president this cycle.
More Romney/Rubio: In light of the Aurora shooting, the Romney campaign has cancelled the campaign visit featuring Marco Rubio. While the Colorado visit has been cancelled, Rubio intends to still appear at a Las Vegas event.
Christie: New Jersey Governor Chris Christie says he would be interested in running in 2016 if Mitt Romney does not win in 2012 or elects to not serve a second term. Christie has been courted for vice president, but interest has waned as of late apparently over a personality difference with Romney. Who would have suspected.
O’Malley: Speaking of 2016, Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley has set up a federal PAC. The Democratic Governor of Maryland is viewed as a favorite of progressive members of the party who are looking for a candidate to run in 2016.
Obama/Leaks: The Obama campaign seems to be on the defensive and changing its story regarding the leaking of classified information. Senior campaign advisor David Axelrod said on Morning Joe that President Obama did not leak the information or authorized its leak. This is a change in the White House’s previous stance that nothing was leaked from the White House.
Portman: Ohio US Senator Rob Portman is considered to be near the top of Mitt Romney’s short list for vice president, but even if he is not selected, he will be a valuable asset in the Senate. Portman has a strong relationship with several moderate Democrats and could be a key ally for Romney in any budget deal.
North Carolina: Is North Carolina trending right again or is still a competitive battleground? The Romney campaign is treating it as a Republican leaning state while the Obama campaign seems to still think its in play. While I think Romney wins North Carolina, I am not sure it is completely in the bag.
Polling: The Hill provides an interesting analysis on the obscene nature of the amount of polling the Obama campaign is performing especially during June.
Enthusiasm: Republican voters have opened a significant enthusiasm gap over their Democratic counterparts. Democratic Enthusiasm is lower than in 2004 and 2008 while Republican Enthusiasm is in line with 2004 and substantially higher than 2008.
Here’s one guess …..
Could you call it a suggestion for the President’s handlers?…
Kevin Drum: “My guess: the flip-flopper charge probably won’t get much traction. It’s mostly a problem for conservatives, who don’t fully trust that Romney is one of them, but by the time summer rolls around they’re going to be his most fire-breathing supporters. They’ll have long since decided to forgive and forget, and independents won’t care that much in the first place as long as Romney seems halfway reasonable in his current incarnation. It’s possible that Obama can do both — Romney is a flip-flopper and a right-wing nutcase! — but if he has to choose, my guess is that he should forget about the flip-flopping and simply do everything he can to force Romney into the wingnut conservative camp. That’ll be his big weakness when Labor Day rolls around.”
Every few years as we get into the election season, we see more polls and much more commentary about the polls. So, from my vantage point of poll watching, I wanted to address a few things I see turning up with frequency in the many comments here. Most of this material is readily available on line, with some expert advice thrown in.
Are weekend polls accurate?
Gallup’s Presidential approval tracker (three day rolling average, MoE plus/minus 3) had had a mini-bump for Obama lately, and on one occasion when I posted on it, the question about whether a weekend Gallup was different than a weekday poll came up, as it has over the years. This story, looking at weekend bias, dates back to 2006:
Democrat Jim Webb has taken the lead over Sen. George Allen of Virginia, according to a pre-election poll released on Tuesday. Allen’s polling consultant rejected the latest results: “Any survey conducted Fridays and Saturdays, everybody knows they’re skewed toward Democrats.” Similar claims have surfaced in news reports about polling data since at least as far back as 2000. What’s so suspicious about weekend polls?…While it’s a common claim that weekend polls favor the Democrats, there isn’t much hard evidence to support that idea. One of the best studies of this question was conducted by two polling experts at ABC News. Gary Langer and Daniel Merkle looked at the data from ABC’s tracking polls for the last three presidential elections. They compared results from people reached on Sunday through Thursday with those reached on Friday and Saturday and found no difference. Among the Sunday-to-Thursday people polled in 2004, 49 percent supported Bush and 46 percent supported Kerry. Polls of the stay-at-home, Friday-to-Saturday crowd produced similar numbers—48 and 46.
The possibility of a day of the week effect has come up in relation to prior Gallup tracking data, such as for the 1996 and 2000 elections. We carefully examined those data for evidence of such an effect, and did not find anything to suggest a systematic effect.
Mark updated his thoughts for us:
I have not seen any studies showing solid evidence of a weekend effect that would counter the Langer-Merkle findings, but that doesn’t mean no such evidence exists, and it may say more about a lack of studies than a lack of evidence. It is possible that awhile interviews conducted over a weekend create no partisan skew, they do skew other important characteristics or attitudes in ways that pollsters’ standard demographic weighting fails to correct.—Mark Blumenthal
Is primary polling accurate?
Stats guru Harry J. Enten(I love the name of the blog: margin of error) looked at this past week’s Iowa entries and liked what he saw:
The 12/29-30 Selzer & Co. poll found Mitt Romney leading with 24%, Rick Santorum in second with 21%, and Ron Paul in third with 18%. This poll was the only one to correctly forecast first, second, and third place. It was the most accurate in predicting the spread between Santorum and Paul, and second most accurate in estimating the spread between Romney and Santorum.Overall, the 12/29-30 Selzer & Co. poll was the “most accurate” Iowa poll employing ARG’s Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy measure of pollster accuracy. This is not to say that Selzer & Co.’s full four-day (12/27-30) sample should not also be scored. The fact is that it was published as the “main” poll, but I think it’s necessary to point out that the two-day sample was quite accurate.
The Santorum surge was not a surprise… we wrote about it based on the Selzer/Des Moines Register poll two day sample. That isn’t a pat on the back, it’s to make a point: the polling isn’t always right, but it usually is pretty good, and it’s often more accurate than our predictions of what voters will do in a given state based on our biases.And that means that those suggesting Romney can’t win South Carolina or that Santorum’s surge will carry the day because of the evangelical vote needs to look at the polls and see if that’s supported by the data.
Do we have all the data?
We never do. Charlie Cook’s made the point for some time that candidate-driven polling (at least the well-funded national candidates) often have fresher, more detailed and sometimes more accurate data than we have. That doesn’t mean you should accept on face value campaign released polls. That might be the bit of good news released to drive a story while they hold tight onto the large portion of bad news.
Nonetheless, at least pay attention to references to ‘internal polls’ and match them to what we know. In Iowa, there were such references to dropping Ron Paul and Gingrich numbers, which proved to be the case.
At the same time, most media outlets prefer to look only at their own polls, at least on the day of release, so remember to look at them all, weigh their track records, see who they polled, and remember to go back to basics (see 20 Questions A Journalist Should Ask About Poll Results.)
Do these things, and there’ll be a lot less surprises on election day.
Because private business and state and local government are laying people off…
And it’s due to low demand for services from businesses and cost cutting while state and local governments are cutting THEIR costs also…
The increase in layoffs is a key reason why the U.S. recorded an average of only 21,500 new jobs over the past two months, far below the level needed to bring down unemployment, which now stands at 9.2%.
The cuts also reflect the shifting outlook of employers, many of whom had expected the economy to gain speed as the year progressed. Instead, growth has faltered. If the pace continues to disappoint, more companies will feel pressure to pull back. “Layoffs have played a big role [in weak job growth] over the last few months,” said Mike Montgomery, an economist at IHS Global Insight. “The soft patch is more layoffs and nothing else to pick up the slack.”
Probably a real good idea….
Though I think going on a talk program with his wife would be better..
He needs some breathing room…
And the rehab treatment thing plays good….And he’s gotta learn to be a one woman man…
A couple of weeks off for the rest of the stuff to come out might be a good idea also….
The media is in a feeding frenzy…..
The guy IS taking a beating…..
And there probably is more out there…
It will give him some face time with his wife also…..
Rep Anthony Weiner (D-NY) will leave Congress temporarily to tend to his personal life, a spokeswoman for the Congressman, Risa Heller told TPM on Saturday. The move falls short of a resignation, which Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and a group of top Democratic officials publicly demanded earlier the same day.
“Congressman Weiner departed this morning to seek professional treatment to focus on becoming a better husband and healthier person,” the statement reads. “In light of that, he will request a short leave of absence from the House of Representatives so that he can get evaluated and map out a course of treatment to make himself well. Congressman Weiner takes the views of his colleagues very seriously and has determined that he needs this time to get healthy and make the best decision possible for himself, his family and his constituents.”….More.….
The map at the top of the post is showing how many people are “of color” in America and where they are living. It is part of a series of maps which show the increase in the numbers and distribution of these said “people of color”.
It shows how, perhaps, non whites will be the majority in the United States by 2030. Naturally this has been blown up by various sites, and some newspapers like the British Daily Mail that really ought to know better. All are basically reworking the old “yellow peril” nonsense of yesteryear, purporting directly or just subtly to show how the white man is being bred out of “his” country. Now you see, I don’t think it shows anything of the kind. What it shows is something really very healthy in America. The falling away of racial hypocrisy.
It is called “America’s Tomorrow” from PolicyLink on Vimeo and if you click on the link here it will take you to all the maps.
America had, even when I was a boy, an appalling attitude to black people and arguably an even worse one to those who were of mixed race. Despite laws being in place which said all people are born equal, black people and those “of color” could not use the same restaurants, drink from the same taps, eat at the same restaurants or sit at the front of a bus. America still practised apartheid every bit as rabid and vile as South Africa. As for job opportunities forget it.
The map here shows the states that would not sanction mixed race marriages, which they called “miscegenation” well into the sixties. The last seventeen states (yes 17!) only relenting after being dragged kicking and screaming into the nineteenth century by Loving v Virginia 388 US1 1967. You can bet those states would do their level best to arrange statistics of mixed race peoples as advantageously as possible. Check those seventeen from this map to the top map.
Gray No Laws against mixed marriages.
Green Repealed before 1887
Yellow Repealed 1948 through 1967
Red Repealed 12 June 1967
How did you know if you were black? Well the slightest hint of a heavy tan, or curly hair was best avoided. Hair strengtheners and skin whitening creams were there for those that needed it. The “one drop rule” reigned supreme. This loathsome doctrine ascribed a black outcome to any person who had down to one sixteenth black ancestry, condemning them to sit at the back of the bus of life forever. Worst of all this rule was never some hangover of a benighted past, but was a product of the enlightened twentieth century……
Please read the first comment to this post over@ Talkandpolitics….
It is the prime example of problems we still have even with a ‘black’ mixed race President……
There are places that are not safe to go to ALL places, black, white and yellow….
Why point out just the black ones?
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