PoliticalDog101.com

commentary on Politics and a little bit of everything else

Rasmussen……. Florida Senate…Crist 37%…..Rubio 37%….Meek 15%?

Wow……Meek is out and gone…

But this isn’t good news for Rubio……

Daniel should have more later…..

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Sunshine State finds Rubio and Crist each earning 37% of the vote, while Democratic hopeful Kendrick Meek trails with 15% support. Eleven percent (11%) are undecided.


June 9, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Updates | , | 2 Comments

Rasmussen Polling changes it up……Comes back……

The Right leaning polling outfit found itself out a limb reports Pollster.com ……

And has scurried back into the pack of major pollsters……

This from PoliticalWire……


As many readers have noted, the latest Rasmussen surveys of U.S. Senate races in Connecticut and Kentucky seem to have swung wildly back in line with other recent polls.

Pollster.com notes “something funny has happened in the past four days.”

Markos Moulitsas: “Remember, Rasmussen has two modes — the narrative setting mode, which he’s used to great effect this year to fuel the ‘Democrats are doomed’ narrative, and the ‘get it right’ mode he uses the closer we get to the actual election. Well, we’re not that close to November yet, but apparently he felt threatened by having such massive outliers vis a vis other pollsters. So he rushed new polling more in line with the composite polling trendlines.”

In an email, Scott Rasmussen declined to respond.

June 4, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates | , , , | 11 Comments

Is Rand Paul 25% ahead in the Kentucky Senate race…or 1%?

Nate Silver over @ FiveThirtyEight. has an interesting piece on the Rand Paul lead in the new Rasmussen poll…….

Unless you’ve been asleep for the past 24 hours……

You know that Rand Paul has run into a buzzsaw over his comments about the 1964 Civil Rights Bill……

Silver questions the Rasmussen 25% lead right off the bat…then correctly questions whether Paul is gonna have those numbers after the last 24 hours anyways…..

Pollster’s combined average has Paul ahead only by 1%…..

What’s the story here?

From Silver…….

I don’t quite know what to make of the new Rasmussen poll showing Rand Paul 25 (!) points ahead of fellow primary winner Jack Conway in Kentucky.

Paul has had a bad 24 hours in the Beltway media environment. Do I think that has any relevance whatsoever for Kentucky, a state which is culturally about as far removed from the Beltway as you can get? No, not really; it may even be a contrarian indicator. Nor is it unusual to see candidates get bounces after primary victories, although they often prove to be fleeting.

But. Rasmussen had shown a particularly large house effect in this race. Whereas the Pollster.com trendline of all non-Rasmussen polls had shown Paul ahead by just 1 point, Rasmussen’s trendline had him up by 15, even prior to this poll being released.

There’s More…

May 20, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Law, Media, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates | , , , | 7 Comments

CD……Rasmussen……Perry 51%…White 38%..in Texas Governor race…..

I need more than one poll on this….

After all this is Rasmussen…..

Texas Governor Rick Perry earns himself a little more breathing room this month, crossing the 50% mark for the first time in his bid for reelection against Democrat Bill White.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Texas shows the Republican incumbent with 51% support, while White earns 38%, his poorest showing to date. A month ago, Perry held a modest 48% to 44% advantage…….

Election…..2010 Texas Governor….

Rick Perry (R)                     51%
Bill White (D)                      38%
Some other candidate       4%
Not sure                                  6%

Rasmussen: Perry 51, White 38

posted by paulburka at 9:36 AM

The numbers speak for themselves. We are seeing an instant replay of the Republican primary. Another Perry opponent has been unable to find a theme that resonates with the voters. Meanwhile, Perry has found a strange political bedfellow–Anise Parker, White’s successor as mayor–who delivered Perry manna from heaven: the devastating criticism that the city, in “unbusinesslike” fashion, had been spending more than it has taken in “for years.” What a gift for Perry! This is going to stick. There’s no way White can recover from Parker’s throwing him under the bus on a central issue of the campaign: fiscal stewardship.

You might as well pencil in four more years of the last ten years. There is only one thing that the Democrats can do to change the current political dynamic in Texas. They are going to have to win an election, something they haven’t done since 1994. Until the Republicans lose a major race–and the only major race that matters is governor–nothing is going to change in Texas politics. And it doesn’t look as if the D’s can win this one.

included is this comment……

Anonymous says:This poll looks like an outlier to me. Your ultimate conclusions may be right, Paul, but there hasn’t been enough going on to justify the dramatic numbers shift. Texas Tribune says they’ve got a new poll upcoming. Let’s see what it says.
paulburka Reply:
May 17th, 2010 at 10:09 am

It’s always a matter of concern when a poll shows a four-point difference one month and two months later it turns into thirteen points. On the other hand, White has done nothing in these two months while Perry has had Anise Parker running interference for him. Do not forget that for twenty years Parker worked for Robert Mosbacher, one of the most stalwart Republicans in Texas. As I said in my post, what Parker said is going to stick……..

More……..

May 17, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, CD @ PolitcalDog, Counterpoints, Government, Media, Men, Politics, Polls, Updates | , , | 2 Comments

Daniel……Oregon Governor: Could the Republicans EVEN make "Blue Oregon" competitive? A new Survey shows Republican Dudley TIED with Kitzhaber and Bradbury…..

Hello Folks!

What is going on in the usual “Democratic Base States” in the North-West of the Country? First a SUSA Survey in Washington State showed longtime Incumbent Senator Murray could losing her Senate Seat against “Virtually No Names”. Now a new Statewide Survey in Oregon shows Democrats may have their work out to retain the Governors Mansion there. According to the Survey former NBA Pro Player Chris Dudley (R-OR) is TIED with former Oregon Governor John Kitzhaber (D-OR) and Former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury (D-OR) who a vying to become the Democratic Nominee.

Rasmussen Survey

Oregon Governor 2010

General Election

[ Kitzhaber and Dudley ]


Former Oregon Governor John Kitzhaber (D)  41 %
Former NBA Professional Chris Dudley (R)  41 %
Others  6 %
Undecided  13 %

Former Oregon Governor John Kitzhaber (D)  50 %
Former State Senator John Lim (R)  34 %
Others  5 %
Undecided  12 %

Former Oregon Governor John Kitzhaber (D)  48 %
Businessman Allan Alley (R)  33 %
Others  6 %
Undecided  13 %

Former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury (D)  40 %
Former NBA Professional Chris Dudley (R)  40 %
Others  6 %
Undecided  13 %

Former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury (D)  44 %
Former State Senator John Lim (R)  32 %
Others  9 %
Undecided  15 %

Former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury (D)  43 %
Businessman Allan Alley (R)  34 %
Others  7 %
Undecided  16 %

Job Approvals

President Barack Obama (D)

Approve 59 %
Disapprove 40 %

Governor Ted Kulongoski (D)

Approove 48 %
Disapprove 51 %

Major Candidates Campaign Websites:

http://www.johnkitzhaber.com/
http://www.bradbury2010.com/
http://www.chrisdudley.com/
http://www.limforgovernor.com/
http://www.allenalley.com/

Analysis:

This is worrysome for Democrats if they EVEN have to fight to hold Oregon. Looks like they’ll have TROUBLES everywhere.

Daniel G.

My answer to your question is ‘No’…again…it’s six months out from any of these elections…you and I know that in tradtional Democratic states …..the democrats almost alaways come home in the polls in Septemeber and October…..I your defense ..that did not happen enough in the New Jersey and Virgina rcent Governorships……

He, he, he…..both those Governor’s are now having troubles in the polls…..

I rest my case…..

The Dog….

April 29, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates | , , , | 28 Comments

Daniel……Oregon Governor: Could the Republicans EVEN make “Blue Oregon” competitive? A new Survey shows Republican Dudley TIED with Kitzhaber and Bradbury…..

Hello Folks!

What is going on in the usual “Democratic Base States” in the North-West of the Country? First a SUSA Survey in Washington State showed longtime Incumbent Senator Murray could losing her Senate Seat against “Virtually No Names”. Now a new Statewide Survey in Oregon shows Democrats may have their work out to retain the Governors Mansion there. According to the Survey former NBA Pro Player Chris Dudley (R-OR) is TIED with former Oregon Governor John Kitzhaber (D-OR) and Former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury (D-OR) who a vying to become the Democratic Nominee.

Rasmussen Survey

Oregon Governor 2010

General Election

[ Kitzhaber and Dudley ]


Former Oregon Governor John Kitzhaber (D)  41 %
Former NBA Professional Chris Dudley (R)  41 %
Others  6 %
Undecided  13 %

Former Oregon Governor John Kitzhaber (D)  50 %
Former State Senator John Lim (R)  34 %
Others  5 %
Undecided  12 %

Former Oregon Governor John Kitzhaber (D)  48 %
Businessman Allan Alley (R)  33 %
Others  6 %
Undecided  13 %

Former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury (D)  40 %
Former NBA Professional Chris Dudley (R)  40 %
Others  6 %
Undecided  13 %

Former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury (D)  44 %
Former State Senator John Lim (R)  32 %
Others  9 %
Undecided  15 %

Former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury (D)  43 %
Businessman Allan Alley (R)  34 %
Others  7 %
Undecided  16 %

Job Approvals

President Barack Obama (D)

Approve 59 %
Disapprove 40 %

Governor Ted Kulongoski (D)

Approove 48 %
Disapprove 51 %

Major Candidates Campaign Websites:

http://www.johnkitzhaber.com/
http://www.bradbury2010.com/
http://www.chrisdudley.com/
http://www.limforgovernor.com/
http://www.allenalley.com/

Analysis:

This is worrysome for Democrats if they EVEN have to fight to hold Oregon. Looks like they’ll have TROUBLES everywhere.

Daniel G.

My answer to your question is ‘No’…again…it’s six months out from any of these elections…you and I know that in tradtional Democratic states …..the democrats almost alaways come home in the polls in Septemeber and October…..I your defense ..that did not happen enough in the New Jersey and Virgina rcent Governorships……

He, he, he…..both those Governor’s are now having troubles in the polls…..

I rest my case…..

The Dog….

April 29, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates | , , , | 28 Comments

Daniel……Arkansas Senate: Lincoln & Halter ARE BOTH TOAST against U. S. Rep. John Nicolas Boozman (R-AR)

Hello Folks!

Is this likely GAME OVER for Democrats to hold the Arkansas Senate Seat? It surely look like so. According to a new Statewide Survey U. S. Rep. John N. Boozman (R-AR) leads Incumbent Senator Blanche Lambert Lincoln (D-AR) by 28 Points and Arkansas Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter (D-AR) by 25 Points.

Rasmussen Reports Survey

Arkansas Senate 2010

General Election

U. S. Rep. John N. Boozman (R)  57 %
Incumbent Senator Blanche Lambert Lincoln (D)  29 %
Others  9 %
Undecided  5 %

State Senate Minority Leader Gilbert Baker (R)  53 %
Incumbent Senator Blanche Lambert Lincoln (D)  31 %
Others  12 %
Undecided  4 %

’04 Republican Senate Candidate Jim Holt (R)  54 %
Incumbent Senator Blanche Lambert Lincoln (D)  31 %
Others  6 %
Undecided  9 %

State Senator Kim Dexter Hendren (R)  51 %
Incumbent Senator Blanche Lambert Lincoln (D)  30 %
Others  11 %
Undecided  8 %

Businessman Curtis Coleman (R)  52 %
Incumbent Senator Blanche Lambert Lincoln (D)  32 %
Others  8 %
Undecided  7 %

[Halter ]
U. S. Rep. John N. Boozman (R)  56 %
Arkansas Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter (D)  31 %
Others  7 %
Undecided  7 %

State Senate Minority Leader Gilbert Baker (R)  48 %
Arkansas Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter (D)  33 %
Others  10 %
Undecided  9 %

’04 Republican Senate Candidate Jim Holt (R)  49 %
Arkansas Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter (D)  31 %
Others  12 %
Undecided  8 %

State Senator Kim Dexter Hendren (R)  45 %
Arkansas Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter (D)  33 %
Others  13 %
Undecided  9 %

Businessman Curtis Coleman (R)  43 %
Arkansas Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter (D)  37 %
Others  11 %
Undecided  9 %

Major Candidates Campaign Websites:

http://www.boozmanforarkansas.com/
http://senatorgilbertbaker.com/
http://jimholt2010.com/
http://www.hendrenforsenate.com/index.php
http://www.curtiscoleman.com/
http://www.blancheforsenate.com/home
http://www.billhalter.com/

Job Approvals

President Barack Obama (D)

Approve  35 %
Disapprove  63 %

Governor Mike Beebe (D)

Approve  68 %
Disapprove  30 %

Analysis:

No matter how you slice this the Democrats will lose this Seat. Cook is probably going to shift it after the Primaries.

Daniel G.

Right now it does look pretty bad…but right now IS 6 months out…..

Halter has got too much progressive backing..he’ll never fly……

Daniel knows that…which is why he’s pushing Halter…..

He, he, he…

April 29, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Counterpoints, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Other Things, Politics, Polls, Updates | , , , | 1 Comment

Daniel….. Georgia Governor: Former Governor Roy Barnes (D-GA) in a TOSS-UP Race against Oxendine, Handel; Surprisingly former U. S. Rep. Nathan Deal (R-GA) leads Barnes by 7 Points …..

Hello Folks!

Former Georgia Governor Roy Barnes (D-GA) is in a competitive TOSS-UP Race against State Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine (R-GA) and former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R-GA) according to a new Survey in the Peach State. However (and this is surprising) former U. S. Rep. Nathan Deal (R-GA) who resigned in Mid-March to run full time for Governor leads Barnes by 7 Points.

Rasmussen Reports Survey

Georgia Governor 2010

[ Barnes and Deal ]

Former U. S. Rep. Nathan Deal (R)  46 %
Former Georgia Governor Roy Barnes (D)  39 %
Others  7 %
Undecided  8 %

State Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine (R)  45 %
Former Georgia Governor Roy Barnes (D)  43 %
Others  6 %
Undecided  6 %

Former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R)  42 %
Former Georgia Governor Roy Barnes (D)  41 %
Others  7 %
Undecided  10 %

Former Georgia Governor Roy Barnes (D)  42 %
State Senate President Eric Johnson (R)  37 %
Others  8 %
Undecided  13 %

Former U. S. Rep. Nathan Deal (R)  47 %
State Attorney General Thurbert Baker (D)  31 %
Others  9 %
Undecided  13 %

State Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine (R)  44 %
State Attorney General Thurbert Baker (D)  34 %
Others  9 %
Undecided  13 %

Former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R)  44 %
State Attorney General Thurbert Baker (D)  36 %
Others  5 %
Undecided  15 %

State Senate President Eric Johnson (R)  38 %
State Attorney General Thurbert Baker (D)  35 %
Others  9 %
Undecided  18 %

Major Candidates Campaign Websites:

http://www.nathandeal.org/
http://www.johnoxendine.com/
http://www.harenhandel.com
http://www.johnsonforgeorgians.com/
http://www.roy2010.com/
http://www.thurbertbaker.com/

Job Approvals

President Barack Obama (D)

Approve  41 %
Disapprove  57 %

Governor Sonny Perdue (R)

Approve  55 %
Disapprove  44 %

Analysis:

I’m not entirely surprised about these Results.

Barnes is a former Governor in this State and has very strong Name ID.
Barnes could win this under the right circumstances EVEN in a bad Democratic Year.

Daniel G.

Well, Well, Well….. Daniel……..

April 28, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Counterpoints, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, Politics, Polls, Updates | , , , | 2 Comments

Daniel……North Dakota Senate: The most populous Governor in the Nation John Hoeven (R-ND) leads his Democratic Rival by 45 Points !

Hello Folks!

No surprises in the North Dakota Senate Race. Popular Governor John Hoeven (R-ND) leads his Democratic Rival State Senator Tracy Potter (D-ND) by a whopping 45-Point margin.

Rasmussen Reports Survey

North Dakota Senate 2010

General Election

[ Hoeven ]

Incumbent Governor John Hoeven (R)  69 %
State Senator Tracy Potter (D)  24 %
Others  2 %
Undecided  5 %

Major Candidates Campaign Websites:

http://www.hoevenforsenate.com/
http://tracypotterforsenate.com/

Job Approval

Governor John Hoeven (R)

Approve  83 %
Disapprove  15 %

Analysis:

Can Hoeven carry Berg over the Finish Line? That’s the only Question that remains here.

Daniel G.

April 27, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates | , , , | 4 Comments

Daniel…..Michigan Governor Primaries: Hoekstra leads among Republicans, Dillon among Democrats …….

Hello Folks!

A new Statewide Survey in the Wolverine State surveying Likely Primary Voters finds that U. S. Rep. Peter Hoekstra (R-MI) still leads among Republicans while Michigan State House Speaker Andy Dillon (D-MI) leads among Democrats.

Meanwhile a whopping 51 % of the Electorate among Democrats is still Undecided.

Rasmussen Reports Survey

Michigan Governor 2010

Republican Primary

[ Hoekstra ]

U. S. Rep. Peter Hoekstra  28 %
Rick Snyder  14 %
Mike Cox  13 %
Mike Bouchard  9 %
Others  5 %
Undecided  32 %

Democratic Primary

[ Dillon ]

Andy Dillon  13 %
Virg Bernero  12 %
Alma Wheeler-Smith  9 %
Others  15 %
Undecided  51 %

Daniel G.

April 27, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Other Things, Politics, Polls, Updates | , , , | 2 Comments

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 34 other followers