commentary on Politics and a little bit of everything else

A serious look at the long term Aftgan and region's stratergy…….

If you’ve been following me here, you know that I believe that the only way the  United States can ‘win’ in that country is to surge now as Gen. McChrystal has requested, and then, under that protection do nation building to preserve any gains……..

Two things have occurred within the last 24 hours for me that have made me think that Obama is taking a longer time then expected,tenets because some basic tenets of my  above argument stand on wobbly legs…..I did an earlier post in which I said Aftghanistan is just too darn backwards to ever have the US declare ‘victory’……and that view should not be discarded….

First of all Yesterday I have a look discussion with a guy who regularly travels to India……he’s an American now but he was born and lived his youth in India…..And he’s been to Afghanistan….

His point to me on the subject was that , in agreement with my feelings, Afghanistan was a hard sell for anybody to ‘win’…he felt that the people of that country simply did not want anybody coming in to change their way of life, and their country…and that the political system of ‘forced democracy’ was flawed and corrupt. He was emphatic…the country was simply not capable of changing due to economic, political and religious constraints ……

In the case of Pakistan…my friend argued correctly that the bad guys in Afghanistan were put there by the Pakistani’s to work against India, their arch enemy…….He pointed out that it was inconceivable for the Pakistani’s to remain in a fight against these forces…why?…because in the end..when the US leaves the area, they, The Pakistani’s, will still have to deal with India….and that was their principal concern……not the United States problem with terrorism….

I also just go finished reading a strategic paper from the Democratic Strategist which is biased in one way, but which clearly lays out the argument my friend gave me yesterday……which is that any counterinsurgency campaign must deal with the three constraints I have laid out above…..

The piece, as does my friend..and my prior post,  repeats, loud and clear, the reason why no  has been able to hold, as their own, that region…..

The Aftgan’s don’t want anybody to, never have, and it seems, never will…..

But we now know this…..the United States and NATO are moving the troop levels above the 68,000 troops they have been saying are in country…..President Obama, the Commander-in -Chief is going to have to decide (take your time, Sir) WHAT HE WANTS?, WHAT CAN BE ACCOMPLISHED?……and the DEFINITION of a win, victory or just a get out point…….

This one is a problem  that may not have  solution….. A true Kobarishi Maru…….

October 13, 2009 - Posted by | Military, Politics | , , , , , , , ,

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