Jamesb101.com

commentary on Politics and a little bit of everything else

Dow goes up 203.52 points !

The market always leads the economy out of a slump, and it is doing it this time….The finish of 10,226.94 points is the highest it’s been for 13 months…..Look for ups and downs…but investors are jumping back in ……..Gold traded at 1,100.80 an ounce…..

November 9, 2009 - Posted by | Breaking News, Media, Politics, The Economy | , , ,

9 Comments »

  1. Recession isn’t over

    It’s good to see a little common sense approach to things for a change. Of that 3.5% GDP growth, 3+ percent of it (exact number depends on which report you believe) came from government spending. That’s spending money WE DON’T HAVE. So, it’s a bubble…again. When will the American people ever learn?
    Posted By Scott – Westfield, IN: November 7, 2009 12:21 pm

    http://blog.heritage.org/2009/11/06/morning-bell-10-unemployment-shows-objective-failure-of-obama-stimulus/print/

    http://moneyfeatures.blogs.money.cnn.com/2009/11/07/earth-to-economists-recession-isnt-over/

    Comment by Timothy Peter Leal | November 10, 2009 | Reply

  2. Yo TPL…it has been over since the late spring…it doesn’t matter what kind of spending it was…people bought cars, homes and a little bit of everything else….but we are out of it a moving ahead…..

    Comment by jamesb101 | November 10, 2009 | Reply

  3. check this out….
    http://politicaldog101.com/2009/11/06/unemployment-rises-to-10-2/

    Comment by jamesb101 | November 10, 2009 | Reply

  4. I would say check this article out from CNBC: http://www.cnbc.com/id/33846028
    but you are heavily optimistic.

    I agree that the government spending was so necessary, could you imagne what would have happened if the government didn’t step in, we may be talking unemployment numbers double what they are or maybe the NYT number from the other day would have been the real unemployment number without government intervention.

    The largest problem looming over the US is that if the job market continues to remain stagnant and jobs continue to get lost there is the potential that consumers won’t come back to the table (to buy homes, cars, etc) soon enough and we will slip back to either contraction or flat line growth, which will be horrible for the US.

    Comment by BenjaminDOG | November 10, 2009 | Reply

  5. the job market ALWAYS is stagnant after a down turn…even these people in the piece you linked know that…..they are being disingenuous to not mention that fact…I also mentioned here that employers have begun to get better productivity out of their workers ( http://politicaldog101.com/2009/11/06/unemployment-rises-to-10-2/ )…..car and home sales have generally been up….I am optimistic because every sign out there except employment has been creeping up…..and all of these knucklehead economists that are scared know that what is happening now is normal….

    Comment by jamesb101 | November 10, 2009 | Reply

    • A couple of things, productivity is up, but wages aren’t, in fact real wages are probably down when adjusted to inflatio n, which has been very low, but still slightly ticking up (and the fact that many people have had to forgo wage increases to keep their job, outside of Wallstreet of course). In addition you have always said that the US economy is a consumer based economy and if the consumer is not willing to spend money and the savings rate continues to stay (the highest in decades) it could have a negative impact on the economy and help to slow the recovery further. The key numbers to watch are savings rates and Unemployment. You also pointed out the gold price which is high because no one has that much faith in the US dollar because no one is confident that the economy or the US dollar will begin to strenghten. If gold starts to drop then I will say the recovery is in full swing. Look at the last time Gold was this high, 1982 (pretty tuff recession). There is a ceiling on how high home and car purchases can continue to climb if there are no real jobs being created and wages are not going up. And I will continue to point this out that all of these knucklelhead economists (which I agree with you they are) even the one’s you read where supposdly shocked by the crash last year and didn’t see it coming. SO to put any credence in what the economist say whether it is that we are out of the recession and things are looking up or that we have a lot more pain to go threw and that the recovery may be stalled is probably not the best idea.

      Comment by BenjaminDOG | November 10, 2009 | Reply

  6. this country discourages savings by taxing you twice…people would probably do better keeping their money buried in their back yard…

    Wages are slow in growing… agreed…..

    So the gold thing is right on time…the business sector is making more money thru productivity but will eventually have to hire when the economy picks up…….

    The market is moving upward so they are being dragged back in ….remember …good market bring private money back to companies……

    I am confident that this economy is on the mend…interest rates are still low to nonexistent due the Feds need to help…the economy will really on fire when rates start to rise and the Fed starts to worry more about inflation…say next late spring or so…..

    Comment by jamesb101 | November 10, 2009 | Reply

  7. Interesting article about people people less likely to quit their job (and for good reason) http://www.cnbc.com/id/33829595

    If less people are leaving their job that could also be an indicator of why worker productivity is up. People who are in a job longer are more efficient (usually). In addition more people are less likely to quit and are afraid of losing their job so they work harder to be more valuable. Recessions (or slow recoveries) are good times to watch how people act and how productive the can be a work.

    Comment by BenjaminDOG | November 11, 2009 | Reply

  8. well…. how about…no job…no money…no food?

    would that sound reasonable?

    Comment by jamesb101 | November 11, 2009 | Reply


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