Jamesb101.com

commentary on Politics and a little bit of everything else

Coakley leads by 8% in New Poll…….

This thing is all over the place….with dueing polls…the Dog still believes she wins by 5% points….ONLY ONE POLL HAS SHOWN SCOTT BROWN AHEAD..

……and that poll was from a week ago…..

Here’s the latest…….


A new BMG/Research 2000 poll in Massachusetts finds Martha Coakley (D) leading Scott Brown (R), 49% to 41%.

Key finding: Brown is ahead among independents 49% to 36%; “significant, to be sure, but not the overwhelming advantage suggested in the Rasmussen (71-23) and PPP (63-31) polls that came out recently.”

A final Public Policy Polling survey in the race will be released Sunday night.

January 14, 2010 - Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Media, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Women | , ,

14 Comments »

  1. Cook & Rothenberg have moved the Massachusetts Senate Special Election into “Toss-up”

    Cook Quote:
    “This race call is one of the toughest we’ve had in a long time. The modern electoral history of federal statewide races in Massachusetts argues strongly that while state Attorney General Martha Coakley, the Democratic nominee, could have a close race, at the end of the day it’s unlikely that she ends up losing. After all, no Republican Senate candidate has won in the Bay State since 1972.”

    “But the non-quantitative arguments are quite strong. Republican Scott Brown has been the superior candidate with, by a long shot, the better campaign… To the extent Coakley may still have a tiny advantage, it appears not to meet the normal standard we have for a ‘lean’ rating: a competitive race but one in which one party has a clear advantage. We see no clear advantage.”

    Rothenbergs Quote:
    Democratic desperation and other compelling evidence strongly suggest that Democrats may well lose the late Senator Edward Kennedy’s Senate seat in Tuesday’s special election. Because of this, we are moving our rating of the race from Narrow Advantage for the Incumbent Party to Toss-Up.

    Whatever the shortcomings of the Coakley campaign (and they certainly exist), this race has become about change, President Obama and Democratic control of all of the levers of power in Washington, D.C. Brown has “won” the “free media” over the past few days, and if he continues to do so, he will win the election.

    Late Democratic efforts to demonize Republican Scott Brown, to make the race into a partisan battle and to use the Kennedy name to drive Democratic voters to the polls could still work. But the advertising clutter in the race works against them, and voters often tune out late messages, which can seem desperate.

    http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2010/01/ma-senate-moved-to-toss-up.html

    So what’s up James? You think you’re better Pundit than Charlie and Stu? I don’t think so.

    Either Candidate can win this NOW.

    Comment by Merlin (Daniel G.) | January 14, 2010 | Reply

  2. again…..the last poll has Coakley up by 8%….there is only one poll that has Brown ahead……and that poll is from last week….

    Comment by jamesb101 | January 14, 2010 | Reply

    • 7NEWS / Suffolk is going to release their Poll tomorrow morning 10am.

      The Pollster.com Aggregate shows a 6,4 Point lead for Coakley.

      The 8-Point Poll you mentioned is BOGUS because it was paid by the extreme liberal Website “Blue Mass”

      Internals have Coakley only up two.

      My guess Suffolk shows only a 2-4 Point lead for Coakley. Maybe it’s EVEN tied.

      Comment by Merlin (Daniel G.) | January 14, 2010 | Reply

  3. are you still standing behind your +5% points for Tuesday?

    Comment by jamesb101 | January 14, 2010 | Reply

    • szays the same thing I said…She’s up in every poll but one..in the one she’s down within the MOE by 1% points…what’s the problem????/

      she’s ahead in every poll!

      Comment by jamesb101 | January 14, 2010 | Reply

  4. james,

    Rothenberg & Cook wouldn’t have moved it into “Toss-Up” if it wouldn’t be between a 2-5 Point lead.

    Here are the usually estimates for Pundit Changes:

    1. If it’s between 0-5 Points it’s a Toss-Up

    2. Above 5 it’s a Leaner

    3. Above 10 it’s Likely

    4. And above 15 it’s a Solid or Strong.

    Didn’t you know that?

    Comment by Merlin (Daniel G.) | January 14, 2010 | Reply

    • Yep…..they just predict…the voters vote and they have been polled and have Coakley winning by each poll save one..which is behind by 1% point within the MOE…..

      AM I MISSING SOMETHING, HERE?

      No matter how you call it…right now she’s ahead….

      Comment by jamesb101 | January 14, 2010 | Reply

      • The Key is the Independent Vote my friend. I’m not buying that Brown only leads Indies 49-36.

        He is way over that say 65-35 or so.

        Obviously I’m virgiously for Brown because I want this HR jamming to stop. This Bill is bad.

        Comment by Merlin (Daniel G.) | January 14, 2010

  5. The object is to win?….right?

    Comment by jamesb101 | January 14, 2010 | Reply

  6. Coakley has the big money behind her, its going to be a tough one. Big Pharma, the insurance companies, & Big Labor all have her back. I guess we know who is writing the healthcare bill afterall.

    Comment by pwgi | January 14, 2010 | Reply

    • Ben…the Supreme’s are going to strike down most of the laws telling the people with money, they can’t use their money to push who they want…we all better get used to this…..

      Comment by jamesb101 | January 14, 2010 | Reply

  7. I kinda figured that one out Daniel…..he, he, he

    Comment by jamesb101 | January 14, 2010 | Reply


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