commentary on Politics and a little bit of everything else

Merlin on PPP Polls for the Mass Senate race….as I said a few days ago…no one really knows what’s coming on Tuesday….

To make the Dog sweat a little bit longer about the Massachusetts Special Election….. here are the internals:

In a 3-Day Average (Wednesday,Thursday,Friday) Brown leads Coakley 47-45.

And for the one Night of Friday Brown leads similar 47-45.


From PPP……
Here’s what we saw on day 1 of our Massachusetts poll:

-The electorate is becoming more Democratic. Last weekend we found it at Obama +16 and now we see it at Obama +20. So all the efforts to get the party base more engaged in the election are paying off.

-Balancing that out to some extent though is that we’re now seeing Brown win about 19% of the Obama vote, in comparison to 15% on our poll last week.

-Both candidates have seen a pretty large increase in their negatives over the last week, reflecting the increasingly nasty nature of the campaign.

-Even though the race is too close to call overall, 58% of voters think Brown has made a strong case for why he should be elected while only 41% say the same of Coakley. That speaks to voter perceptions that Brown has run the superior campaign and again you have to wonder how different things might be if Coakley had acted with a sense of urgency ever since the primary.

If today’s interviews hold up through tomorrow I don’t think we’re going to be able to make a clear prediction of the winner in our final poll- still too close. Expect the final results tomorrow night between 10:30 and 11.


My hunch is that PPP will likely again have Brown ahead by 1-2 Points.

So, can Coakley can turn a 2-3 Point deficit into lead over the Final Two Days.

I DON’T think so,  therefore I’m saying Brown + 1. ( this is Merlin’s call, he’s dropped the Coakley by 5%, which the Dog is staying with )

Don’t bother me if I’m wrong……( is he kidding me???…after all the grief he’s given me? )….. But I’ve been in the Polling Business for almost 5 years.


January 17, 2010 - Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Media, PoliticalDog Calls, PoliticalDogs Merlin, Politics, Polls, Updates | , ,


  1. The Final PPP will be released between 10-10.30pm ET tonight.

    BTW folks I’m still scratching my head that Survey USA didn’t come out with a Poll on that Race.

    Very disappointing indeed cause we’ve a barnburner and they’re sitting on the Sidelines.

    Comment by Merlin | January 17, 2010 | Reply

  2. barnburner……….

    maybe they are being a little cautious?

    Comment by jamesb101 | January 17, 2010 | Reply

  3. you darn right!….its a barnburner…..like the Dogs says….no one is certain on this one….how about a nailbiter?

    Comment by jamesb101 | January 17, 2010 | Reply

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