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SE on the political races in Connecticut…..

My Take on the 2010 CT Races

Here’s a rundown of how I think the CT races will go:

Governor: Incumbent GOP Governor Jodi Rell is retiring. On the GOP side, former Congressman Larry DeNardis, Lieutenant Governor Michael Fedele, and former US Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley are in the running. On the Democratic side, former State House Speaker Jim Amann, former State Representative Juan Figueroa, Simsbury First Selectman Mary Glassman, Businessman Ned Lamont, State Senator Gary LeBeau, Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy, and Rigefield First Selectman Rudy Marconi are in the running. I expect Fedele and Lamont to emerge from their Primaries. I expect Fedele to pick Foley as his running mate and Lamont to pick Amann as his running mate. I expect Lamont/Amann to prevail over Fedele/Foley 52-48. DEM GAIN.

Secretary of State: Incumbent Democratic Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz is running for Attorney General. On the Democratic side, New Haven Alderman Gerry Garcia, Jonathan Harris, State House Majority Leader Denise Merrill, and State Representatives Kevin Roldan and James Spallone are in the running. On the GOP side, former Cheshire Town Registrar of Voters Richard Abbate and Attorney Corey Brinson are in the running. I expect Merrill to emerge from her Primary. I expect Abbate to defeat Brinson 64-36. Merrill will defeat Abbate 60-40. DEM HOLD.

Attorney General: Incumbent Democratic Attorney General Richard Blumenthal is running for the US Senate. On the Democratic side, Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz and former State Senate Majority Leader George Jepsen are in the running. There are no announced candidates on the GOP side, but potential candidates are State Representatives Bill Hamzy, Themis Klarides, and Arthur O’Neill, Attorney John Pavia, and State Senator Andrew Roraback. I expect Bysiewicz to pummel Jepsen 67-33 and defeat whoever the GOP nominates. DEM HOLD.

State Treasurer: Incumbent Democratic State Treasurer Denise Nappier is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Nappier. The GOP has no announced or potential candidates. DEM HOLD.

State Comptroller: Incumbent Democratic State Comptroller Nancy Wyman is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Wyman. The GOP has no announced or potential candidates. DEM HOLD.

US Senate: Incumbent US Senator Chris Dodd is retiring. On the Democratic side, Software Executive Merrick Alpert, Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, and former Greenwich First Selectman Roger Pearson are in the running. On the GOP side, former Worl Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon, former Congressman Rob Simmons, and Euro Pacific Capital President Peter Shiff are in the running. I expect Blumenthal to crush his Primary opposition easily, 80-14-6 over Alpert and Pearson. I also expect Simmons to bodyslam McMahon 49-38. Blumenthal will crush Simmons 69-31. DEM HOLD.

US Congress: Democrats will retain Districts 1 and 3.

CT-02: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Joe Courtney is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Courtney. On the GOP side, Hebron Board of Finance Member Matthew Daly and Homeland Security Consultant Daria Novak are in the running. The Green Party has unified behind Montville School Board Chair G. Scott Deshefy. The Libertarians have unified behind Writer Dan Reale. I expect Daly to emerge from his Primary 71-29 and lose to Courtney 56-41. DEM HOLD.

CT-04: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Jim Himes is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Himes. On the GOP side, State Senator Dan Debicella, Non-Profit Group Executive Director Will Gregory, Businessmen Rob Merkle and Rick Torres, and former State Senator Rob Russo are in the running., I expect Debicella to prevail 50-42-5-2-1 over Gregory, Russo, Merkle, and Torres, and upend Himes 51-49. GOP GAIN.

CT-05: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Chris Murphy is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Murphy. On the GOP side, former Non-Profit Group Executive Director Justin Bernier, State Senator Sam Calguri, Health Care Executive Dan Carter, Businessmen Bill Evans and Mark Greenberg, and Attorney Kie Westby. I expect Calguri to prevail over Bernier 55-39 and upend Murphy 53-47. GOP GAIN.

POSTED BY SE-779

Update:…..we have been told that Daley has dropped out of the CT-02….Novak is said to have backing…But Se calls this Dem hold anyways…..

Update#2..……From SE…..’.You do know the stuff about Daly is stuff generated by the Novak people to gain traction. It’s incorrect. I don’t think my time is needed on a follow-up.’

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January 30, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Government, Media, PoliticalDogs SE posts, Politics, Polls, Updates | , , | 22 Comments

Merlin on the Florida Governor Race…..No Changes…..

Hello Dog!

There isn’t much Movement in the Florida Governor Race right now. Rasmussen basically confirms the earlier Q-Pac Poll (Q-Pac had McCollum up 41-31) showing McCollum ahead by 11 Points.

Rasmussen Survey

Florida Governor 2010

General Election

Attorney General William “Bill” McCollum (R)  46 %
Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink (D)  35 %
Others  5 %
Undecided  13 %

Job Approvals

President Obama

Approve  42 % (Q-Pac had it at 45 %)
Disapprove  58 % (Q-Pac had it at 49 %)

Governor Charlie Crist (R)

Approve  51 % (Q-Pac had it at 50 %)
Disapprove  47 % (Q-Pac had it at 38 %)

Full Results as always at Rasmussen Reports.com

Note:

Rasmussen to release updated Florida Senate Republican Primary Numbers next week.

Merlin

January 30, 2010 Posted by | Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDogs Merlin, Politics, Polls, Updates | , , , | Leave a comment

Duke loses to Georgetown with Obama and Biden in the stands…..

President Barack Obama sits courtside with VP Joe Biden as Georgetown battles Duke game at D.C.'s Verizon Center on Saturday afternoon.

There was a familiar voice behind the microphone during the Duke-Georgetown basketball game—Barack Obama’s.

The president, attending the game as a fan, provided about seven minutes of nationally televised hoops commentary in the second half of Saturday’s matchup of two top 10 teams at the Verizon Center near the White House.

The president shook hands with several fans as he entered the arena, and enjoyed the game from a front-row seat, not the luxury suites that top government officials sometimes prefer. Those with him included Vice President Joe Biden, White House senior adviser David Axelrod and White House spokesman Robert Gibbs.

Shortly after the second half began, the president was seated between CBS announcers Verne Lundquist and Clark Kellogg. Obama, an avid fan of the sport who often plays pickup games, seemed to impress the pair.

After Obama niftily described a spin move and basket by one player, Kellogg told him he could handle the job of announcing.

“After retirement, I’m coming after your job, Clark,” Obama replied. “I’m just letting you know. So you either have three more years or seven more years,” he said, referring to the possibility that he might be re-elected to a second term.

At another point, CBS aired tape of a pickup game Obama played during the 2008 presidential campaign, including a missed left-handed layup. That prompted Lundquist to ask Obama if he has problems dribbling to his right.

“I went to the Republican House caucuss just yesterday to prove that I could go to my right once in a while,” Obama joked, referring to a televised session Friday when the president attended a House GOP retreat in Baltimore.

The president—a Columbia University graduate—revealed no preference for either team, despite sitting among a throng of wildly cheering Georgetown fans, including some who were shirtless, smeared in blue and gray body paint and wearing wigs.

The Dog is unhappy his favorite College Basketball Team ….The Blue Devils from Duke, who lost…and sink to a 17 and 4 record…..

Note:…..Our friend Susan advises us that this the second college basketball game the President has attended this session…..

January 30, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Entertainment, Government, Media, Men, Politics, Sports, Updates | , , , , | 2 Comments

Merlin on the Wisconsin Governor's race…..

Hi Dog!

Now back to Politics. I want to start with some Polls I missed reporting to you yesterday. First is a new Wisconsin Governor Poll. It backs up my Theory that former Rep. Mark Neumann (R-WI) should run for Senate instead for Governor.

Rasmussen Survey

Wisconsin Governor 2010

General Election

Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker (R)  48 %
Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D)  38 %
Others  2 %
Undecided  12 %

former Rep. Mark Neumann (R)  42 %
Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D)  38 %
Others  7 %
Undecided  13 %

Merlin’s Thoughts:

As I outlined in the Wisconsin Senate Post a couple of Days ago Neumann should forgo a Gubernatorial Campaign and run for Senate instead should Tommy Thompson take a pass. Neumann squared off with Feingold in 1998 losing by only 2 Points.

Here are the Results from the 1998 Senate Race between Feingold and Neumann:

http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=157

Merlin

January 30, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDogs Merlin, Politics, Polls, Updates | , , | Leave a comment

Merlin on the Wisconsin Governor’s race…..

Hi Dog!

Now back to Politics. I want to start with some Polls I missed reporting to you yesterday. First is a new Wisconsin Governor Poll. It backs up my Theory that former Rep. Mark Neumann (R-WI) should run for Senate instead for Governor.

Rasmussen Survey

Wisconsin Governor 2010

General Election

Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker (R)  48 %
Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D)  38 %
Others  2 %
Undecided  12 %

former Rep. Mark Neumann (R)  42 %
Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D)  38 %
Others  7 %
Undecided  13 %

Merlin’s Thoughts:

As I outlined in the Wisconsin Senate Post a couple of Days ago Neumann should forgo a Gubernatorial Campaign and run for Senate instead should Tommy Thompson take a pass. Neumann squared off with Feingold in 1998 losing by only 2 Points.

Here are the Results from the 1998 Senate Race between Feingold and Neumann:

http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=157

Merlin

January 30, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDogs Merlin, Politics, Polls, Updates | , , | Leave a comment

More…… on the Chances of a Healthcare Bill……..

Is it?….The Dog believes …if it is….. Obama has done a Clinton replay……
Is Health care Reform Dead?
While President Obama insists he wants to move forward with health care reform, comments by chief of staff Rahm Emanuel in the New York Times about pushing it back makes some liberals think he’s willing to let it die.

Jonathan Cohn: “Was this a trial balloon? It’s impossible to know. Emanuel’s qualms about strategic over-reach on health care are among Washington’s worst kept secrets. It’s always possible he was freelancing. But it’s hard to imagine that, in a sit-down interview like this, Emanuel would toss out an idea like this without at least implicit approval from above.”

Kevin Drum: “Given the normal pace of congressional action — including the usual Republican obstruction — this would mean no action on healthcare for at least a month or two. Maybe more like three or four. Or maybe never. New pronouncements seem to come almost hourly on this stuff, so I’ll wait for a few other folks to chime in before coming to any conclusions. But if healthcare is now domestic priority #4, it might as well be domestic priority #100. It might not quite be dead, but no matter what Obama said in his State of the Union address, the grim reaper is starting to hover uncomfortably close by.”

Ezra Klein: “The timetable Emanuel is laying out makes little sense. The jobs bill will take some time. Financial regulation will take much longer. Let’s be conservative and give all this four months. Is Emanuel really suggesting that he expects Congress to return to health-care reform in the summer before the election? Forgetting whether there’s political will at that point, there’s no personnel: Everyone is home campaigning.”

Jonathan Chait: “Either Obama doesn’t know what he wants to do, and his deputies are spreading conflicting stories in order to see what takes, in which case he needs to make up his mind pronto. Or else he wants to do what he says he wants to do, but his chief of staff is out there subverting his agenda and making Congress doubt his seriousness, in which case Obama needs to shut up Emanuel or fire him.”

Will President Obama sign a comprehensive health care reform bill this year?
No
Yes

January 30, 2010 Posted by | Government, Healthcare, Law, Media, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Taxes, The Economy | , , , | 2 Comments

GOP Litmus test?……What Litmus Test?

From PolticalWire…….

Republicans Dismiss “Purity Resolution”

“The RNC avoided a potentially embarrassing resolution that would have given the party an ability to impose sanctions on candidates who do not follow key elements of the GOP platform, a move that would have shone a spotlight on some of the party’s best recruits,” according to The Hotline.

“GOPers meeting in Honolulu this week unanimously said the party is in good shape to make big electoral gains this year, but many worried that the proposed resolution could highlight differences between conservatives and several more moderate contenders.”

Note.…..He, he, he…..

January 30, 2010 Posted by | Media, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Travel, Updates | , , | Leave a comment

There WILL BE a second season of 'The New Jersey Shore'……..only not at the Shore…..and they will get paid…..

Just when you though it was over…the guys and girls get together and sign up for more…….

Who know’s what it’s gonna be like now that these people are ‘stars’?……


Snooki, The Situation, his abs – and the rest of their fist-pumping “Jersey Shore” pals – will be back for a second season.

The debaucherous gang has signed on for 12 new episodes of the hit reality show, MTVsays.

Only this time, they’ll bring their wild hairdos, skimpy outfits and booze-fueled brawls to a destination beyond the boardwalk in Seaside Heights, officials said.

Just where DJ Pauly D, Mike “The Situation,” Snooki, J-Woww, Sammi, Ronnie and Vinny will land has yet to be revealed, but the controversial show will air this summer.

“Our audience has fallen in love with Jersey Shore and its amazing cast who have really grown together as a family,” Tony DiSanto, MTV’s president of programming, said.

“That bond gives the show its heart, and we’re thrilled to reunite these friends.”

The lovable self-identified guidos and guidettes, who have angered some Italian-American groups with their antics, agreed to a deal after weeks of salary negotiations.

MTV officials would not say how much the cast members are being paid the second time around, but sources told OK! Magazine they’ll rake in $10,000 an episode.

jersey shore

January 30, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Entertainment, Family, Media, Men, Other Things, Updates, Women | , , | Leave a comment

There WILL BE a second season of ‘The New Jersey Shore’……..only not at the Shore…..and they will get paid…..

Just when you though it was over…the guys and girls get together and sign up for more…….

Who know’s what it’s gonna be like now that these people are ‘stars’?……


Snooki, The Situation, his abs – and the rest of their fist-pumping “Jersey Shore” pals – will be back for a second season.

The debaucherous gang has signed on for 12 new episodes of the hit reality show, MTVsays.

Only this time, they’ll bring their wild hairdos, skimpy outfits and booze-fueled brawls to a destination beyond the boardwalk in Seaside Heights, officials said.

Just where DJ Pauly D, Mike “The Situation,” Snooki, J-Woww, Sammi, Ronnie and Vinny will land has yet to be revealed, but the controversial show will air this summer.

“Our audience has fallen in love with Jersey Shore and its amazing cast who have really grown together as a family,” Tony DiSanto, MTV’s president of programming, said.

“That bond gives the show its heart, and we’re thrilled to reunite these friends.”

The lovable self-identified guidos and guidettes, who have angered some Italian-American groups with their antics, agreed to a deal after weeks of salary negotiations.

MTV officials would not say how much the cast members are being paid the second time around, but sources told OK! Magazine they’ll rake in $10,000 an episode.

jersey shore

January 30, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Entertainment, Family, Media, Men, Other Things, Updates, Women | , , | Leave a comment

Healthcare…and winning….An opportunity lost?

From Josh Orton over @ MyDD.com…..

Obama today:

The component parts of this thing are pretty similar to what Howard Baker, Bob Dole and Tom Daschle proposed at the beginning of this debate last year. Now, you may not agree with Bob Dole and Howard Baker and Tom — and certainly you don’t agree with Tom Daschle on much …

(LAUGHTER)

… but that’s not a radical bunch. But if you were to listen to the debate, and, frankly, how some of you went after this bill, you’d think that this thing was some Bolshevik plot.

(LAUGHTER)

No, I mean, that’s how you guys — that’s how you guys presented it.

And so I’m thinking to myself, “Well, how is it that a plan that is pretty centrist …”

No, look, I mean, I’m just saying — I know you guys disagree, but if you look at the facts of this bill, most independent observers would say this is actually what many Republicans — it — it’s similar to what many Republicans proposed to Bill Clinton when he was doing his debate on health care.

So all I’m saying is we’ve got to close the gap a little bit between the rhetoric and the reality.

I’m not suggesting that we’re going to agree on everything, whether it’s on health care or energy or what have you, but if the way these issues are being presented by the Republicans is that this is some wild-eyed plot to impose huge government in every aspect of our lives, what happens is you guys then don’t have a lot of room to negotiate with me.

I mean, the fact of the matter is is that many of you, if you voted with the administration on something, are politically vulnerable in your own base, in your own party. You’ve given yourselves very little room to work in a bipartisan fashion because what you’ve been telling your constituents is, “This guy’s doing all kinds of crazy stuff that’s going to destroy America.”

And I — I would just say that we have to think about tone.

It’s not just on your side, by the way. It’s — it’s on our side as well. This is part of what’s happened in our politics, where we demonize the other side so much that when it comes to actually getting things done, it becomes tough to do.

I think all that’s true. But you know what else? Turns out it’s a winning strategy for Republicans. The health care bill is nationally unpopular and legislatively dying (at best). Their prospects in November have improved.

Yes, Republicans have left themselves with little ability to compromise, but it’s not in their interest to compromise. And that Republicans would demonize the policy and misrepresent Obama was entirely predictable. Maybe they earnestly disagree with the proposals, or maybe they’re just self-interested and cynical. It doesn’t really matter – they’re not going to vote for health care reform. Whether they’ll compromise is not unknown. They won’t.

And yes, we need to change how Washington works. Without question, our political discourse needs to communicate to voters with honesty and respect.

But we also need to provide health care to uninsured Americans. So in the end, while it’s satisfying for our president to be right…to take the high ground in the argument about process, it’s not going to pass health care.

For that, you actually have to win.

Note.….The Dog added the color highlights…as a comment on the piece…..

January 30, 2010 Posted by | Family, Government, Healthcare, Law, Media, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, The Economy, Updates | , , , , , , | Leave a comment