Jamesb101.com

commentary on Politics and a little bit of everything else

MyDD and Charlie Cook discuss his call on the Democrats chances in 2010…..

MyDD’s Jonathan Singer exchanged thoughts with Charlie Cook on his call that Democrats could lose up to 30 seats in the House in November’s mid-term elections……

From Singer……

The past few weeks and months I have been writing quite a bit about my view, contrary to those held by many inside the Beltway and Charlie Cook specifically, that the Democrats’ control of the United States House of Representatives is all but lost at present. Don’t get me wrong, I am not so obtuse to believe that the political environment favors the Democrats. But I just don’t buy the notion that the Republicans are on the verge of retaking the House in the upcoming midterm elections.

Yesterday I wrote a post noting internal Democratic polling showing one of the red state Democratic incumbents the Cook Political Report currently rates in the “tossup” category leading by margins well in excess of 20 points against named challengers. “If the Republicans can’t even be competitive in an R+16 district featuring a freshman Democrat in a race Cook now labels as ‘a tossup,'” I asked, “how, exactly, are they supposed to win back the 40 seats they need to regain a majority in the chamber?”

Charlie has been kind enough to respond with four comments on my post. I have included the full text of each comment below the fold, for those interested. Here are a few grafs culled from these comments that seem to be representative.

Jonathan, I think what this poll suggests is that Democrats in tough districts who have opposed the Democratic Congressional leadership and the President on just about every important matter, have a decent chance of surviving.

My job, having started the Cook Political Report in 1984, is to call them as I see them. We saw a big wave coming in 1994 but underestimated it then. In 2006 we saw one and nailed it. We saw signs of problems and began writing and talking about it last summer and see little sign that we are wrong. If more Democrats had the cover that Bright had, maybe we would be.

Yes, we have been writing “Dems in trouble” for about eight months now, but it isn’t much different from when we were writing that Republicans were in trouble during the 2006 and 2008 cycles. And Republicans were in fact in trouble. Our job is to watch races individually and look for trends. If the partisans for the side on the short end of the trends don’t like it, they typically attack the messenger. you can be sure that Republicans weren’t happy with what we were writing in the months leading up to the 2006 election, but we were right.

All of the points that Charlie makes are fair…….

What I would like to note, however, is that while I don’t dispute the particular points that Charlie is making, I still don’t buy his overall thesis. This isn’t the first time that the two of us haven’t seen eye-to-eye. The last time he came on the site to comment on one of my posts, back in December 2007, it was to defendthe projection made by his publication that the Democrats would pick up between two and eight seats in the House in the 2008 election — a projection I believed to be too dour towards the Democrats, about whom I wrote, “I’d be surprised if [they] didn’t net a pick up of at least 10-15 seats in the House next fall.” As it turned out, the Democrats netted a 21-seat pickup in the House that fall. In May 2006, hecommented similarly, downplaying my reading of his House race analysis as a major shift towards the Democrats (while, in fairness, also saying “one could reasonably say that the House is close to 50-50, perhaps a bit better for Democrats”). Earlier that year he stopped by MyDD to comment on a post I wrote questioning whether the Democrats would necessarily be worse off in the event that GOP Congressman Bob Ney retired instead of running for reelection. Cook wrote, “If you are a Democrat, you need to really hope that Bob Ney does NOT retire.” In the end, Ney did retire, but the Democratic nominee, Zack Space, won by a 24-point margin nonetheless.

For the entire piece.……

And the Dog also believes that Cook’s numbers are too high…...

March 3, 2010 - Posted by | Counterpoints, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Updates | , , , , ,

10 Comments »

  1. Cook is right, you’ll see.

    Comment by Daniel G. | March 3, 2010 | Reply

    • that’s what I’m afraid of…..he, he, he

      Comment by jamesb101 | March 3, 2010 | Reply

  2. james,

    Usually I don’t predict Primary Races. I’m going to tell you now that.

    1. Congressman Dan Burton (R-IN 5) will lose renomination on May 4th.

    2. Halter will upset Lincoln in Arkansas on May 18th. It will be called the BIGGEST 2010 Primary Upset.

    Voters are FED UP with Burton & Lincoln.

    Comment by Daniel G. | March 3, 2010 | Reply

    • Woa!…..that’s a big one!

      Comment by jamesb101 | March 3, 2010 | Reply

      • Burton…huh?

        Comment by jamesb101 | March 3, 2010

  3. james,

    Burton’s Reelect Numbers ARE….ONLY 28 Percent my friend.

    Burton will be THE FIRST Incumbent House Member to lose a Primary. You watch.

    Comment by Daniel G. | March 3, 2010 | Reply

  4. James B, Daniel G., IL Brandon, Illinois Jim, Blanche Lincoln is likely the next female United States Senator going to get her *** handed to her this year after watching KBH get destroyed all over the state if you look at who carried the majority of 254 counties:

    http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=309125

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_gubernatorial_election,_2010

    Comment by Conservative Democrat | March 3, 2010 | Reply


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