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Nate Silver on Political Pollster's leanings……

Nate Silver calculates the “house effects” for the five most prolific pollsters so far this year — the systematic differences a pollster’s surveys tend to lean toward one or the other party’s candidates.

Thus far in the cycle, Rasmussen has a Republican-leaning house effect of 5.5 points. Research 2000 has a Democratic-leaning house effect of 4.4 points. Meanwhile, Public Policy Polling, YouGov and Quinnipiac are within a point or two of the average.

Key point: “It’s extremely important to emphasize that just because a pollster has a house effect doesn’t mean that it’s wrong. They may result from legitimate differences of opinion about how to conduct surveys. Rasmussen, for instance, is one of the few pollsters to already be employing a likely voter model at this point. It’s not uncommon for likely voter polls to have comparatively better results for Republicans, since Democrats rely on votes from groups like young voters and minorities who turn out less reliably in midterm elections.

Nate Silver works for FiveThirtyEight.……

Here’s the chart with the Silver piece……

I keep telling Daniel this!

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March 11, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Updates, Women | , , , | 4 Comments

Nate Silver on Political Pollster’s leanings……

Nate Silver calculates the “house effects” for the five most prolific pollsters so far this year — the systematic differences a pollster’s surveys tend to lean toward one or the other party’s candidates.

Thus far in the cycle, Rasmussen has a Republican-leaning house effect of 5.5 points. Research 2000 has a Democratic-leaning house effect of 4.4 points. Meanwhile, Public Policy Polling, YouGov and Quinnipiac are within a point or two of the average.

Key point: “It’s extremely important to emphasize that just because a pollster has a house effect doesn’t mean that it’s wrong. They may result from legitimate differences of opinion about how to conduct surveys. Rasmussen, for instance, is one of the few pollsters to already be employing a likely voter model at this point. It’s not uncommon for likely voter polls to have comparatively better results for Republicans, since Democrats rely on votes from groups like young voters and minorities who turn out less reliably in midterm elections.

Nate Silver works for FiveThirtyEight.……

Here’s the chart with the Silver piece……

I keep telling Daniel this!

March 11, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Updates, Women | , , , | 4 Comments

Cuomo will not personally be involved in investigating the man with his next job…….

I think that is a good idea……being involved would be a VERY BAD thing…..

People could get the idea that he was going after Paterson….

The Dog thinks that no matter who sits in judgement…Paterson will not charged with any criminal wrong doing…..

To do so would invite a uproar…(Cuomo has already dropped more than ten points since this whole thing pointed  to him doing an investigation..first he’s gonna run over him politcally….now he could send him to jail? )

A Black, blind Governor …..being charged in New York???… ( especially with Cuomo’s past black problems? )*

Whew…I wouldn’t want be behind that……

Andrew Cuomo recused himself from two investigations his office was conducting of Governor David Paterson’s office, saying he wanted to avoid the “appearance” of impropriety, since it’s very likely Cuomo will run for governor this fall.

The first investigation is looking into accusations that Paterson and the state police interfered with a woman’s attempt to file domestic violence charges against a top gubernatorial aide. The other case involves charges that Paterson lied to investigators about his plans to pay back a developer for free World Series tickets.

“I have removed myself from the case,” Cuomo announced in a 40-plus minute conference call today, telling reporters that the cases will now be handled by former Chief Judge Judith Kaye, who will work pro bono. “There is no finer person in the State of New York to take on this responsibility.” he said.

Cuomo said he has interviewed dozens of witness, but not the governor, and that the allegations are credible.

“If there was no merit to either of these referrals, I could have saved everyone a lot of time and dismissed them. I don’t believe they are without merit,” Cuomo said. “We do believe they need to be investigated.”

In recent days, Cuomo’s public approval rating had dropped by as much as 13 percentage points, with the public saying they wanted an independent prosecutor, not Cuomo, investigating the matter.

Cuomo said polling wasn’t the reason for his move, and that it had been in the works before the numbers were released.

March 11, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Law, Media, Men, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Updates | , , , | 4 Comments

Jennifer Aniston and Gerard Butler for W Magazine…HOT

Nuff said!

For more…….

March 11, 2010 Posted by | Entertainment, Media, Men, Other Things, Updates, Women | , , , , | 2 Comments

Dan Senor…..Possible New York Senate Republican candidate……

[Dan Senor is expected to decide within a month on a candidacy.]

Ah, what about all that Fox Cable time…..does that help?

And Rick Lazio needs to start a new career guess, huh?

Mr. Senor, 38, who is married to the CNN anchorwoman Campbell Brown, is expected to decide in the next month whether to run. The discussions between Mr. Senor and the Republican leaders reflect their dissatisfaction with the existing field of Republican candidates in the state and their consensus that Ms. Gillibrand remains vulnerable to a challenger in the election this fall.

In recent weeks, as Democratic political prospects have soured, a number of big-name Republicans — including Rudolph W. Giuliani, the former mayor and presidential candidate — have urged Mr. Senor to consider running.

“Rudy is very impressed with him and pleased that he is considering running,” said Anthony V. Carbonetti, a senior adviser to Mr. Giuliani, who said the former mayor had lunch with Mr. Senor a few days ago.

Among others who have encouraged him are Senator John Cornyn of Texas, the chairman of theNational Republican Senatorial Committee; Michael R. Long, the leader of the New York Conservative Party; and Edward F. Cox, the chairman of the state’s Republican Party, according to people with direct knowledge of the conversations

The Republican leaders, who cautioned that they were not backing any single candidate, have told Mr. Senor that his deep ties in the party, expertise on national security and background as a businessman would make him a formidable candidate. His New York roots do not hurt, either: he was born in Utica, which could appeal to upstate voters wary of his Manhattan address.

Mr. Senor declined to be interviewed for this article.

Ms. Gillibrand, who was appointed to the Senate last year by Gov. David A. Paterson, appears to be cruising toward the Democratic nomination, but the depth of her support across the state is unclear. National Democratic leaders have aggressively, and successfully, sought to elbow out potential primary challengers to Ms. Gillibrand, like Representative Steve Israel and Harold E. Ford Jr., a former United States representative from Tennessee.

She has had lackluster poll ratings, and with Democrats headed into difficult midterm elections, Republicans see a chance to win a Senate seat in New York. So far, two Republicans have said they will run: Bruce A. Blakeman, who dropped out of the New York mayoral race last year, and David Malpass, a former economist at Bear Stearns who worked in the Reagan administration.

As a late entry into the race, Mr. Senor would need to raise an estimated $15 million over the next seven months to compete in the primary and then against Ms. Gillibrand, who is known as a thoroughbred in the Democratic fund-raising world. Republican Party leaders have pledged to aid him, and a number of influential donors have told him that they will raise money for him if he runs.

Powerful surrogates are already vouching for Mr. Senor (pronounced See-NOR). Last weekend, Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, promoted Mr. Senor as a possible Senate candidate during a speech to big donors of the Republican Jewish Coalition in Las Vegas, Mr. Graham’s office confirmed.

A Senor Senate candidacy could complicate the work of his wife, whose nightly program on CNN emphasizes its nonpartisan approach to news and politics. Her program at one point embraced the tagline “No bias. No bull.”

More…….

March 11, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Entertainment, Family, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Updates, Women | , , , , , | 5 Comments

Nixon and Kissinger…..from Talkandpolitics…….

Dallek on Nixon and Kissinger – short review

Done with the Dallek-book on “Nixon and Kissinger: Partners in Power”. A good read on both politics and the people involved. Most striking were perhaps the degree of emotion and personal sensitivities driving the actions and deliberations of the two men. The need for recognition and approval was sometimes cartoon-like, with Henry routinely threating to resign because there were “no need for him” etc.

As for the foreign policy and Nixon doctrine, there’s a nice epilogue discussing the legacy and debates on China and Soviet détente, as well as Mideast policies. Some claim they laid the groundwork for ending the cold war, some say they were too soft on the issue.

Either way, a fascinating book on a fascinating subject.

From Talkandpolitcs…..

March 11, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Entertainment, Government, Men, Politics, TalkandPolitcs, Updates | , , | Leave a comment

Virginia votes to block any Healthcare Law effects for its citizens…..

This is plain silly…..

These people know this is just for show…. since Federal Law supersedes state law on this issue….

What are they gonna do ……quit the union?

Virginia’s General Assembly has become the first state legislature to approve a measure that would block any federal efforts to institute health care reform.

The legislation passed, 80-17, Wednesday in the House of Delegates, after having already made it through the Senate. The bill now heads to the desk of Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell, who has promised to sign it, The Associated Press reported.

Supporters say the move preserves Virginia’s sovereignty, but the legality of such legislation is under question since federal laws generally supersede those of states.

“We never gave Washington the power to force us to buy any products of any kind,” Del. Charles Poindexter told Richmond’s CBS News affiliate. “Insurance is a product. They’re saying I have to buy insurance.”

The Assembly is controlled by Republicans but 21 of 39 Democrats backed the bill.

Thirty-four other state legislatures have filed or proposed similar measures rejecting mandated health insurance, according to the AP.

March 11, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Healthcare, Law, Media, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Updates | , , | 5 Comments

Harry Reid's wife and daughter involved in a serious car accident near Washington D.C…..

From the Washington Post.…..

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s wife and daughter were in a serious car accident Thursday afternoon on Interstate 95 in Fairfax County, and police said they are being treated at an area hospital for non-life threatening injuries.

Police said the Reids’ van was rear-ended and crushed by a fully loaded tractor-trailer while driving in heavy traffic.

Virginia State Police spokeswoman Corinne Geller said Landra G. Reid, 69, and Lana Reid-Barringer, 48, of McLean, were driving northbound on I-95 at about 1:10 p.m. in a 2005 Honda Odyssey van in stop-and-go traffic when Reid-Barringer began to stop for traffic ahead of her. A tractor-trailer loaded with rolls of plastic behind her did not stop and pushed the van into another car.

That car in turn hit a third car.

Geller said the van was crushed on both ends.

Both Reid-Barringer and Reid were wearing seatbelts and were transported to Inova Fairfax Hospital in Falls Church. The driver of a 1997 Jeep Grand Cherokee and the driver of a 2007 Chevrolet Cobalt, also involved in the crash, were transported to the hospital with non-life threatening injuries.

“Mrs. Reid has a broken nose, broken back and broken neck. Lana has a neck injury and facial lacerations. Both Mrs. Reid and Lana are conscious, can feel their extremities, and according to doctors their injuries are non-life threatening,” Jon Summers, a spokesman for Sen. Reid (D-Nev.), said in a statement late Thursday afternoon.

“Senator Reid has been to the hospital and appreciates the support he and his family are receiving from Nevadans and his colleagues in the Senate,” Summers said.

Landra Reid has been admitted to the hospital in serious condition, while Reid-Barringer will be released Thursday night, Reid’s office said in a later statement.

Reid went to the Capitol to preside over a health-care meeting and will return to the hospital when it concludes, aides said.

Police said the driver of the tractor trailer, Alan W. Snader, 59, of Ohio, was not injured. Snader was charged with reckless driving.

Traffic on I-95 was blocked for about two hours, and all lanes were reopened shortly after 3 p.m. The accident took place near Exit 166 at the Fairfax County Parkway, about 14 miles south of the District.

March 11, 2010 Posted by | Automobiles, Breaking News, Family, Government, Health, Media, Men, Other Things, Politics, Travel, Updates, Women | | 5 Comments

Harry Reid’s wife and daughter involved in a serious car accident near Washington D.C…..

From the Washington Post.…..

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s wife and daughter were in a serious car accident Thursday afternoon on Interstate 95 in Fairfax County, and police said they are being treated at an area hospital for non-life threatening injuries.

Police said the Reids’ van was rear-ended and crushed by a fully loaded tractor-trailer while driving in heavy traffic.

Virginia State Police spokeswoman Corinne Geller said Landra G. Reid, 69, and Lana Reid-Barringer, 48, of McLean, were driving northbound on I-95 at about 1:10 p.m. in a 2005 Honda Odyssey van in stop-and-go traffic when Reid-Barringer began to stop for traffic ahead of her. A tractor-trailer loaded with rolls of plastic behind her did not stop and pushed the van into another car.

That car in turn hit a third car.

Geller said the van was crushed on both ends.

Both Reid-Barringer and Reid were wearing seatbelts and were transported to Inova Fairfax Hospital in Falls Church. The driver of a 1997 Jeep Grand Cherokee and the driver of a 2007 Chevrolet Cobalt, also involved in the crash, were transported to the hospital with non-life threatening injuries.

“Mrs. Reid has a broken nose, broken back and broken neck. Lana has a neck injury and facial lacerations. Both Mrs. Reid and Lana are conscious, can feel their extremities, and according to doctors their injuries are non-life threatening,” Jon Summers, a spokesman for Sen. Reid (D-Nev.), said in a statement late Thursday afternoon.

“Senator Reid has been to the hospital and appreciates the support he and his family are receiving from Nevadans and his colleagues in the Senate,” Summers said.

Landra Reid has been admitted to the hospital in serious condition, while Reid-Barringer will be released Thursday night, Reid’s office said in a later statement.

Reid went to the Capitol to preside over a health-care meeting and will return to the hospital when it concludes, aides said.

Police said the driver of the tractor trailer, Alan W. Snader, 59, of Ohio, was not injured. Snader was charged with reckless driving.

Traffic on I-95 was blocked for about two hours, and all lanes were reopened shortly after 3 p.m. The accident took place near Exit 166 at the Fairfax County Parkway, about 14 miles south of the District.

March 11, 2010 Posted by | Automobiles, Breaking News, Family, Government, Health, Media, Men, Other Things, Politics, Travel, Updates, Women | | 5 Comments

Bankruptcy Judge's Report…..Lehman management knew they were in too deep…….

[0311lehman]

U.S. Bankruptcy Judge James Peck has released a report that opens to the whole world that big business guys who make millions of dollars in salary are just like everyone else…..well….not everyone…just the ones that lie and cheat….

A huge company began to over extend itself in 2007….and through lies, doctored up balance sheets…and tight lips….. they keep the place going (Remember Bernie Madoff?).

Lehman had simly run out of money…..so they dummy up the company and began to try borrow future money to pay past notes due….. (Again…rememeber Madoff? )

The problem here was they  where dealing with Billions…and Billions of dollars…..and they ended up starting a cascade of trouble that almost took the world’s economic systems with them…..

Lehman’s bankruptcy is the largest failure of an investment bank since Drexel Burnham Lambert collapsed amid fraud allegations 18 years prior…..

Immediately following the bankruptcy filing, an already distressed financial market began a period of extreme volatility, during which the Dow experienced its largest one day point loss, largest intra-day range (more than 1,000 points) and largest daily point gain. What followed was what many have called the “perfect storm” of economic distress factors and eventually a $700bn bailout package (Troubled Asset Relief Program) prepared by Henry PaulsonSecretary of the Treasury, and approved by Congress. The Dow eventually closed at a new six-year low of 7,552.29 on November 20. *

The report, all  2,220 pages of it…was exahustive  and cost $38 million to produce…..

It is said to be….. a detailed reading of what NOT TO DO……

At least the place isn’t there……

But the little guys…the employees…… got screwed along with a lot of investors……

Here’s from the piece……

As Lehman spiraled toward failure during the course of 2008, its financial plight was “exacerbated” by alleged misconduct of the investment bank’s executives, the report said.

Still other forces helped to tip Lehman over the brink in its final days, Mr. Valukas wrote. Investment banks, including J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., made demands for collateral and modified agreements with Lehman that hurt Lehman’s liquidity and pushed it into bankruptcy.

Mr. Valukus, chairman of law firm Jenner & Block, devotes more than 300 pages alone to balance sheet manipulation, accusing Lehman of using accounting methods to move assets off its books.

In the report, Mr. Valukus detailed a “materially misleading” approach Lehman took to how it funded itself. He focused on the “repo” market, in which firms sell assets in exchange for cash to fund operations, often just overnight or for a few days.

LEHMAN

[ Lehman’s top executives, including CEO Richard Fuld, were aware of accounting chicanery and failed to disclose it, the report said. Above, Fuld testifies before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee in October 2008. ]

The examiner said that Lehman—anxious to maintain favorable credit ratings—engaged in an accounting device known within the firm as “Repo 105” to essentially park $50 billion of assets away from Lehman’s balance sheet and reduce leverage ratios.

In an ordinary repo transaction, Lehman would raise cash by selling assets with a simultaneous obligation to buy them back within days, according to the report. The transactions would be accounted for as financings, and the assets would remain on Lehman’s balance sheet.

In a Repo 105 transaction, Lehman did the same thing. But because the moved assets represented 105% or more of the cash it received in return, accounting rules allowed the transactions to be treated as “sales” rather than financings. The result: Assets shifted away from Lehman’s balance sheet, reducing the leverage ratios it reported to investors.

“In this way, unbeknownst to the investing public, rating agencies, Government regulators, and Lehman’s Board of Directors, Lehman reverse engineered the firm’s net leverage ratio for public consumption,” says the report.

Lehman’s own global financial controller, Martin Kelly, told the examiner that “the only purpose or motive for the transactions was reduction in balance sheet” and “there was no substance to the transactions.” Mr. Kelly warned former Lehman finance chiefs Erin Callan and Ian Lowitt about the maneuver, saying the transactions posed “reputational risk” to Lehman if their use became publicly known.

Read the whole thing…..

*Wikipedia

For an excellent insight on the meltdown…… check this Frontline special out…..people tend to forget how hairy it got during that time…..


March 11, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Law, Media, Men, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, The Economy, Updates | , , | 4 Comments