Jamesb101.com

commentary on Politics and a little bit of everything else

Have Democrats turned the corner?

I hope so….

For the last few weeks I have seen evidence that the Democrats…as a party have begun to re-bound from the dark days of the end of last year……

Generic polls really don’t mean anything since each House and Senate race stands on its own…..but the results of several of the polling services are good to see nevertheless…

Here’s the Piece……from Nathan Empsall over @MyDD.Com……

From Florida to Colorado, Dems Clawing Back Up

by Nathan Empsall, Wed Mar 10, 2010

Kos had a headline last week that said, “The tide is turning.” I wouldn’t go quite that far – the generic ballot isn’t Charlie Cook bad, but it’s still not good – but it is true that Democrats have seen a spate of good news lately, both in terms of polls and policy, and I think more is on the way.

Part of the good news is that the DCCC is going on offense, as Jonathan highlighted this morning. We will lose House seats, but the best way to blunt those losses is to flip some red seats, and the GOP has targeted nine incumbents and four open seats.

They do so with certain polls at their back. Two of the last three generic ballot polls give Democrats a lead, and the third is from Rasmussen. Ipsos/McClatchy’s ten point lead is probably an outlier as well, but even ignoring both Rasmussen and Ipsos, we still have a 47-44 Gallup lead. It’s a smaller lead than Dems usually need to do well, but I’ll take it.

In Senate politics, Rep. Kendrick Meek is running surprisingly strong in Florida. According to PPP, likely Repub nominee Marco Rubio is ahead of Meek by just 44-39, “and because there are a lot more undecided Democrats (20%) than Republicans (12%) the race is realistically probably even closer than 5 points.” Perhaps even more importantly, “Meek leads 41-34 with independents, a very rare outcome in this political climate when independents are usually leaning strongly toward the GOP.” In New York, Kirstin Gillibrand’s favorable keep on climbing. Per Rasmussen, that somewhat conservative firm, her approval spread is now 50-37. In November, it was 40-37, and in September, it was a net negative of 39-42.

Certain Governors’ races are looking good, too, including three pick-up opportunities. First, in Nevada, a poll out Sunday is the sixth in a row to show Democrat Rory Reid leading Jim Gibbons – Rasmussen has him up 44-36 despite his father’s down-ticket drag. In Georgia, a state that has voted Democrat for President just three times in 48 years, the likely Democratic gubernatorial candidate is leading all potential opponents. Another PPP poll shows former Gov. Roy Barnes beating Republicans 40-39, 41-36, and 43-38. Another red state where I look forward to the Governor’s race is my native Texas, where our best candidate since Ann Richards goes against an incumbent with a 32% approval rating. And though it would be a hold rather than a pick-up, it looks like Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper has regained the lead inColorado.

These encouraging numbers come in the midst of a bad political environment for Democrats, and it’s an environment that’s only likely to get better. Democratic candidates fare poorly when their party fares poorly, and the party may be about to run into some welcome successes: The Census Bureau’s coming hiring blitz will knock half a point off the unemployment rate, yesterday’s bipartisan White House meeting suggests the Kerry-Graham clean energy bill is inching towards passage, and health care reform is in the endgame. February groundhogs are not October pumpkins, so it makes sense that February’s political messes won’t be October’s messes.

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March 11, 2010 - Posted by | Blogs, Counterpoints, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Updates | , ,

8 Comments »

  1. No, they don’t have turned the corner:

    1. It has nothing to do with Barnes as the GOP Primary has now begun in earnest with Oxendine and Handel jabbing at each other. You would expect Barnes would benefit from that.

    2. I can say ditto for Florida where Rubio & Crist ramping up Attacks and Meek is the Beneficiary.

    3. In Colorado the Dems lead because McInnis is an exceptional lousy Candidate.

    Comment by Daniel G. | March 12, 2010 | Reply

  2. THe GOP has lousy candidates also?

    Comment by jamesb101 | March 12, 2010 | Reply

    • james,

      Exceptional lousy Candidates:

      Rick Lazio in New York

      Bill McCullum in Florida

      Scott McInnis in Colorado

      In Florida fmr. Party Chair Jim Greer screwed everything up there.

      Ditto for Waldhans in Colorado. Waldhans should have lured AG Suthers into the Governor Contest.

      Comment by Daniel G. | March 12, 2010 | Reply

  3. both parties are blessed, huh?

    Ha, ha, ha…….

    Comment by jamesb101 | March 12, 2010 | Reply

  4. That’s not the deal in Colorado. Hickenlooper is in the lead because he’s running a popularity contest and most of the polls are being taken in the Metro Denver area, well hello…he’s the Mayor so of course people are gonna to have name recognition and pick him. Wait until this becomes a statewide campaign and McInnis will take him to the bank. Hickenlooper is pro big government and all about the taxes and that’s not what we want here. The Dems aren’t turning a corner, they’re just going in circles.

    Comment by Brandon Roberts | March 12, 2010 | Reply

    • Well…we’ll wait and see……No one really wants more taxes anywhere…stay in touch……

      Daniel is very high on Hickenlooper…thanks for your comment…..again..stay in touch…

      Comment by jamesb101 | March 12, 2010 | Reply

  5. Somebody needs to tell the jackass who wrote this post that Perry’s approval ratings are 54 percent !

    Comment by Conservative Democrat | March 12, 2010 | Reply

  6. CD….the Governor’s race is going to be much closer than advertised…….

    Comment by jamesb101 | March 12, 2010 | Reply


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