Jamesb101.com

commentary on Politics and a little bit of everything else

Nate Silver on Political Pollster’s leanings……

Nate Silver calculates the “house effects” for the five most prolific pollsters so far this year — the systematic differences a pollster’s surveys tend to lean toward one or the other party’s candidates.

Thus far in the cycle, Rasmussen has a Republican-leaning house effect of 5.5 points. Research 2000 has a Democratic-leaning house effect of 4.4 points. Meanwhile, Public Policy Polling, YouGov and Quinnipiac are within a point or two of the average.

Key point: “It’s extremely important to emphasize that just because a pollster has a house effect doesn’t mean that it’s wrong. They may result from legitimate differences of opinion about how to conduct surveys. Rasmussen, for instance, is one of the few pollsters to already be employing a likely voter model at this point. It’s not uncommon for likely voter polls to have comparatively better results for Republicans, since Democrats rely on votes from groups like young voters and minorities who turn out less reliably in midterm elections.

Nate Silver works for FiveThirtyEight.……

Here’s the chart with the Silver piece……

I keep telling Daniel this!

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March 11, 2010 - Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Updates, Women | , , ,

4 Comments »

  1. james,

    Finally you aknowledged that R2000 is screwed to the left so stop bashing Rasmussen Polls when they’re going somewhat to the right.

    Comment by Daniel G. | March 12, 2010 | Reply

  2. Yo..both should just do polling…not editorial polling…..

    Comment by jamesb101 | March 12, 2010 | Reply

  3. The House is almost certainly GONE in November and the Democrats will keep the Senate.

    I don’t see Dems getting the House back anytime soon throughout our lifetimes.

    Comment by Conservative Democrat | March 12, 2010 | Reply

  4. You are talking about 40 seats CD!….40!…that’s a lot of seats……

    Comment by jamesb101 | March 12, 2010 | Reply


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