Jamesb101.com

commentary on Politics and a little bit of everything else

The Iraqi Election brings surprise…and concern……Maliki didn't win…..

[ former prime minister Iyad Allawi whose coalition won the Iraqi election last week….]

Well, well…..surprise…surprise…in a display that democracy is alive in Iraq…the countries voters have voted to narrowly NOT back its countries currently ruling coalition…….

The result of that vote will be that both Allawi and current Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki will be courting the countries groups to put together enough seats to rule…..

The process is new and will be sloppy and could take sometime…..while the US should be smiling…..most of the administration should be biting their nails and hoping that the Iraqi’s can put something of a governing coalition that won’t set the country backwards……

Stay Tuned……

Nothing about the coming process will be simple, not even the process itself. According to Michael Hanna, an expert in Iraqi politics and law at The Century Foundation, for instance, a recent Iraqi federal court ruling means that Allawi’s electoral edge doesn’t even guarantee him the first opportunity to form a government. Should another coalition assemble with more seats than Allawi’s Iraqiya list, it will usurp that privilege from him. And even if Allawi does go first, there’s no telling whether he can put together his own governing coalition. “Allawi’s victory is important symbolically and also represents a major political realignment but he is not yet in a position where we know that he will be the PM-designate,” Hanna says. “He and Maliki basically enter this next phase dead even.” (Read more from Hanna here.)

What does this confusion and uncertainty mean for the United States? There’s good news and bad. The good news is that U.S. officials generally feel they can work with either Maliki or Allawi, both known quantities with good relations in Washington. (This is more true of Allawi, a former Iraqi opposition leader in exile who worked closely with the CIA before the war; America has been growing impatient with some of Maliki’s recent strongman tendencies, which is not to say that Allawi is a pure Jeffersonian either.)

The bad news is that the longer it takes Iraq to form a government, and the more rancorous that process becomes, the more likely some factions are to win political leverage through violence, which is what happened after the country’s 2006 national election, fueling Iraq’s horrific civil war. Though informed opinion is divided on whether this is a realistic scenario, it’s impossible to rule out the possibility of a return to bloody anarchy.

But here lies still another uncertainty: If Iraq plunges back into chaos, how will Barack Obama react?

More……..

March 28, 2010 - Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Law, Media, Men, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Projections, Updates | ,

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