commentary on Politics and a little bit of everything else

Daniel….. Florida Senate: Crist trails Rubio BIG in Republican Primary but could win an Independent Bid according to a new Quinnipiac University Survey ……

Hello Dog Folks and Good Morning!

What will Florida Governor Charlie Crist (R-FL) do with his Senate Race?

There is now INCREASING Speculation that Crist could just change his mind and run as Independent in November.
The Wall Street Journal reported just YESTERDAY that Key Advisors of the Crist Campaign pushing for an Independent Senate Bid AND Crist himself dodged a Question on the Senate Race to a Reporter in Tampa.

On the heels of all this buzz Quinnipiac University is out with a Survey today showing Crist would do MUCH BETTER should he decide to run as Independent.

Crist leads Rubio in a 3-way Race for the General Election in November BY TWO POINTS.

Quinnipiac Unversity Survey

Florida Senate 2010

Republican Primary

Former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio  56 %
Incumbent Governor Charlie Crist  33 %
Others  1 %
Undecided  10 %

General Election

[ Crist, Rubio and Meek ]

Incumbent Governor Charlie Crist (R)  48 %
U. S. Rep. Kendrick B. Meek (D)  34 %
Others  2 %
Undecided  14 %

Former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio (R)  42 %
U. S. Rep. Kendrick B. Meek (D)  38 %
Others  1 %
Undecided  17 %

3-way General Election with Crist running as Independent

Incumbent Governor Charlie Crist (I)  32 %
Former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio (R)  30 %
U. S. Rep. Kendrick B. Meek (D)  24 %
Undecided  12 %

Major Candidates Campaign Websites:


Job Approvals

Governor Charlie Crist (R)

Approve  49 %
Disapprove  39 %
Not Sure  12 %

Senator Bill Nelson (D)

Approve  43 %
Disapprove  30 %
Not Sure  26 %

Senator George Lemieux (R)

Approve  20 %
Disapprove  21 %
Not Sure  59 %


IF Crist runs as Independent Meek is the BIG Loser.

IF Crist stays BUT also wins the Republican Primary Meek is FINISHED too.
A Rubio – Meek Race is currently a Toss-Up.
One interesting Caveat: How will the Health Care Issue play with Florida Senior Voters come November? MEEK IS SO STAUNCHLY LIBERAL that regardless how the Numbers against Rubio look like today I’m still not nervous.
The DSCC WILL CEDE Florida come August. Meek won’t get one Penny from them.

Daniel G.

Daniel…I ‘m still for  Rubio/Meek general……

And I think that Healthcare is finished as a factor in most of the November races……

April 15, 2010 - Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Healthcare, Law, Media, Men, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates | , , , , , , ,


  1. From the St. Petersburg-Times:

    Crist vetoes Teacher Tenure Bill fuelling buzz he will run as Independent.


    Though Crist said it hasn’t to do with Politics I DON’T BELIEVE HIM.

    Comment by Daniel G. | April 15, 2010 | Reply

  2. Read also this Piece:

    Readers commenting at POLITICO’S Ben Smith Article saying THAT’S IT. HE’S RUNNING AS INDEPENDENT.

    Comment by Daniel G. | April 15, 2010 | Reply

  3. All things are political Daniel…but mad teachers is not good…..

    They tend to vote in blocs……

    But Crist will make the right happy with the move..they’ll be back after the election….

    Comment by jamesb101 | April 15, 2010 | Reply

  4. Duh, the Democrats kissed the Florida Senate race goodbye once Sink chose to run for the governorship.

    Comment by Conservative Democrat | April 15, 2010 | Reply

  5. Ok…lets get this staright!

    We wait for him…Ok?

    How many guys did Daniel hope would run..only to not step up?

    Comment by jamesb101 | April 15, 2010 | Reply

  6. james,

    Anyways CD is spot on by saying Meek is too liberal. Why can’t you accept that?

    Comment by Daniel G. | April 15, 2010 | Reply

  7. because I don’t believe it……

    Comment by jamesb101 | April 15, 2010 | Reply

  8. Meek would have a better chance winning statewide office in California, because of the state’s liberal trends recently than Florida, which is still very conservative.

    Comment by Conservative Democrat | April 16, 2010 | Reply

  9. But he’s in Florida……

    I hope Crist drops out….

    Comment by jamesb101 | April 16, 2010 | Reply

  10. The press release from the Quinnipiac University poll showing Crist as the leader was incorrect. (on purpose?)

    “If Crist were to file as an independent for the general election, he would get 32 percent of the vote, compared to Rubio’s 30 percent and Meeks 24 percent.”

    “In a three-way general election:

    Crist would get 30 percent of Republicans, 27 percent of Democrats and 38 percent of independent voters;

    Rubio would receive 64 percent of GOP votes, 5 percent from Democrats and 29 percent of independents:

    Meek, a congressman from South Florida, would get 55 percent of Democratic votes, 15 percent of independents and no Republicans.””

    Add it up yourself, these percentile totals show Rubio with 98, Crist with 95 and Meek with 70 out of a possible 300% (the balance DK/NA)

    That equates to Rubio at 32.6%, Crist at 31.6% and Meek at 23.3% of the vote in a three-way race, Drist is still behind.

    You can see question 7 on the chart at Quinnipiacs site:

    Comment by Maxwell | April 17, 2010 | Reply

    • Ok Maxwell you have me thourally confused…..

      First of all the Q Poll correctly notes that Crist has answered no Indie run…or maybe…..so any poll with him as a Indie doesn’t mnatter….

      Second…Where did the percentage of the party stuff come from….question 7 lists the numbers you have as part of 100%..that’s all…..

      So all I see is …..
      Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl
      Meek 24% – 55% 15% 21% 27% 9%
      Rubio 30 64 5 29 36 25 44
      Crist 32 30 27 38 30 34 30
      SMONE ELSE(VOL) – – – 1 1 – 1
      WLDN’T VOTE(VOL) 1 – – 1 1 – 1
      DK/NA 13 6 12 16 11 14 14

      PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE
      Meek 25% 22% 20% 15% 32%
      Rubio 31 30 32 37 26
      Crist 32 35 30 35 30
      SMONE ELSE(VOL) – 1 1 – –
      WLDN’T VOTE(VOL) – 1 1 – –
      DK/NA 12 11 15 13 12

      That’s it…….Smart people can make numbers say anything…….

      Comment by jamesb101 | April 17, 2010 | Reply

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