Jamesb101.com

commentary on Politics and a little bit of everything else

Daniel…..Revisiting November Election Projection……

Hello Dog Folks and Good Morning!

Back in January I vistited my friend Scott Elliott over at “Election Projection”.

His Site is really MARVELLOUS and will be updated throughout the year until November.

The Projections are based on Polling BUT with an Election Formula that you can find on his Website.

It’s similar to “Daniel G’s Projections” although I’m doing it slightly diffencent as I have a little more tools than him.

Still his Site is great and I’ve used it as first place to start my own Projections.

So, based on his Projections we’re ( GOP ) going to win the following Seats:

THE SENATE:

Arkansas (Lincoln)

Colorado (Bennet)

Delaware (Open)

Illinois (Open)

Indiana (Open)

Nevada (Reid)

North Dakota (Open)

Pennsylvania (Specter)

Projected Tally as of today: Democrats 49 Seats, Republicans 49, Independents 2 Seats

http://www.electionprojection.com/2010elections/senate10.php

THE HOUSE

Seats that are projected to go from Democrat to Republican:

Arkansas – 2 (Open)

Colorado – 4 (Markey)

Idaho – 1 (Minnick)

Indiana – 1 (Open)

Indiana – 9 (Hill)

Kansas – 3 (Open)

Louisiana – 3 (Open)

Maryland – 1 (Kratochvil)

Michigan – 1 (Open)

Michigan – 7 (Schauer)

Mississippi – 1 (Childers)

Nevada – 3 (Titus)

New Hampshire – 1 (Shea-Porter)

New Hampshire – 2 (Open)

New Mexico – 2 (Teague)

New York – 29 (Open, possible Special Election)

Ohio – 1 (Driehaus)

Ohio – 15 (Kilroy)

Pennsylvania – 7 (Open)

Tennessee – 6 (Open)

Tennessee – 8 (Open)

Virginia – 5 (Open)

Washington – 3 (Open)

Seats that are projected to go from Republican to Democrat:

Delaware At-Large (Open)

Louisiana – 2 (Cao)

Projected Tally as of today: Democrats 236 Seats, Repblicans 199 Seats

http://www.electionprojection.com/2010elections/house10.php

THE GOVERNORSHIPS:

Seats projected to go from Democrat to Republican:

Illinois (Quinn)

Iowa (Culver)

Kansas (Open)

Michigan (Open)

Oklahoma (Open)

Pennsylvania (Open)

Tennessee (Open)

Wisconsin (Open)

Wyoming (Open)

Seats Projected to go from Republican to Democrat:

California (Open)

Connecticut (Open)

Hawaii (Open)

Minnesota (Open)

Vermont (Open)

Seats Projected to go from Democrat to Independent:

Rhode Island (Open)

Projected Tally as of today: Democrats 21 Seats, Republicans 28 Seats, Independents 1 Seat

http://www.electionprojection.com/2010elections/governors10.php

Please visit his Site often for Updates.

Daniel G.


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April 17, 2010 - Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Other Things, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates | , ,

23 Comments »

  1. Ooops,

    I forgot to post the Link for the Governors Races. Well, here is it:

    http://www.electionprojection.com/2010elections/governors10.php

    Comment by Daniel G. | April 17, 2010 | Reply

  2. Update:

    So how does this Site work?

    1. Click on the Governors Races Link.

    2. Then click on the Illinois State Page for example.

    3. On that Page you’ll see that Scott is tracking the Governor, Senate as well as the Race in IL-10 and IL-14.

    As you can see Brady is currently projected by 8,5 % over Quinn; Kirk is projected by 4,0 % over Giannoulias, Dold is projected by 0,5 (very close indeed) over Seals and Foster is projected 3,5 % over Hultgren.

    http://www.electionprojection.com/2010elections/statepages/il10.php

    Tacking for the Races will be initiated after the Primaries so keep an Eye on Indiana, North Carolina and Ohio after May 4th.

    Comment by Daniel G. | April 17, 2010 | Reply

  3. Update 2:

    So, how does Scott to his Projections:

    It’s a Formula and it can be found here:

    http://www.electionprojection.com/2008elections/formulas.shtml

    I know this is for 2008 but it’ll be updated shortly.

    Scott is using Polls and most importantly Pundits for his Projections.

    A Pundit for example is weighted 100 % while a State Poll is only weighted 50 % so IF for example Cook shifts Arkansas into Leans Republican that’s more weighted than the latest State Polls.

    I know it’s sometimes confusing but that’s how it is.

    Comment by Daniel G. | April 17, 2010 | Reply

  4. Daniel G’s thoughts on the Senate:

    Here is what I think:

    What I AM saying “Dog”

    that should the GOP win the Cali Seat you COULD see a PUSH by McConnell, Kyl, Cornyn, Thune and Folks to persuade Lieberman to switch Parties. Then it would be 51-49 Republican Senate.

    I was pushing for a 9 Seat gain ALL YEAR and as long as Lieberman is openly talking possibly switching to the GOP like he did before the Heath Care Debate YOU BETTER MAKE sure that we only win 8 Seats or less.

    Heck, just LAST WEEK Lieberman said and I quote: “He’s GLAD MOMENTUM is WITH REPUBLICANS”.

    So what should Dems make out of these Comments? The Fact is: DEMOCRATS CAN’T RELY ON HIM ANYMORE and if we get to 9 Seats I BET that Lieberman will stab Reid or whoever is Majority Leader in the FACE and switch Parties.

    The only thing that changed with Pataki & Thompson declining Bids is that we can’t win the Senate outright right now.

    Daniel G.

    Comment by Daniel G. | April 17, 2010 | Reply

  5. Liberman does this EVERY year..just to keep the dem’s off balance
    I submit to you that he isn’t going anywhere…
    Switching to the GOP would land him in the lap of the right…..
    He’d be put in room with no windows…..cut off from the dem’s AND the GOP….

    He stays….

    The more you break mine….
    Thank you for doing so….you keep me on my toes and same for you…
    The more I think Obama is gonna come out smelling like a rose in 2012…..

    Comment by jamesb101 | April 17, 2010 | Reply

  6. Your guy over Electionprojection is in line with my predictions…..

    I’m glad to be in such good company!

    Comment by jamesb101 | April 17, 2010 | Reply

    • james,

      Scott’s House Projections ARE STILL VERY CONSERVATIVE for us right now. You could see a lot of changes until November. I’m gonna tell you that we’ll win MORE THAN just 20 Seats in the House. 30-35 is the low end. We could also win over 40 Seats there.

      Comment by Daniel G. | April 17, 2010 | Reply

  7. I agree you’ll win more than 20…..but the top should be low 30’s thus keeping both house’s blue….

    If Reid is out….. look for a HARD charge by Schumer for the spot……

    I’ll venture he’ll beat Durbin…..

    He raised lot more money for the Dem’s in the senate than Durbin ever could…..

    Comment by jamesb101 | April 17, 2010 | Reply

    • I think you’re wrong:

      Cook & Rothenberg saying recently the GOP could take the House and that’s what I believe too.

      We’ll if you will still be so upbeat about your chances when we entering the months of September and October.

      Comment by Daniel G. | April 17, 2010 | Reply

      • Hey…that’s okay…YOUR guy and I are about on the same page…..

        Comment by jamesb101 | April 17, 2010

  8. If that happens Gillibrand is home free….the seat is her’s for as long as she wants it!

    Comment by jamesb101 | April 17, 2010 | Reply

    • Schumer is WAY, WAY too Liberal to be Senate Majority Leader. You need a somewhat Conservative Leader like Reid is to bring folks like Ben Nelson, Conrad, Pryor, etc. onboard for big Legislation.

      IF Schumer wins this mark my words: Your Caucsus will be thrown into Pieces.

      Comment by Daniel G. | April 17, 2010 | Reply

  9. Naw…if he wants the spot he’s gotta promise to be flexible and practical…..that’s how it works…he has to lobby for the votes…..

    Comment by jamesb101 | April 17, 2010 | Reply

  10. james,

    Look before Obama won the Presidency he was one of the most Liberal Senators of the Country. Now look what we’ve got: A Political Gamesmanship-Player who puts Party over Country.

    I wanted to have the Bill Clinton of the Second Term who governed from Center and not this liberal hack.

    YOU probably BARELY keep the Senate this year BUT 2012 IT’S OVER.

    If Obama keeps governing from the left Conservative Senators like Ben Nelson of Nebraska will bolt like Flies.

    Comment by Daniel G. | April 17, 2010 | Reply

  11. Obama…… as Clinton….. is a practical democrat more than anything else….

    wanting a second term and dealing with the horse trading in the Congress does that to ya…..

    Comment by jamesb101 | April 17, 2010 | Reply

    • Unfortunately he is too much of a Democrat.

      I hope some of the Conservative Senators seeing that and bolt.

      Comment by Daniel G. | April 17, 2010 | Reply

  12. daniel u said obama was a liberal senator but if i remember YOU SUPPORTED THAT LIBERAL IN THE 2008 PRIMARIES UP UNTIL A FEW WEEKS AFTER HE BECAME PRESIDENT. unless u lied about supporting him in the first place. just a little reminder to you because your bashing of pres obama is so much i have to put it out there YOU HELPED PUT HIM THERE. within a few weeks after he became president you turned from a bleeding heart liberal to a rightwing nut job.

    Comment by Terry Green | April 17, 2010 | Reply

  13. Actual history is always a bit revealing…..isn’t it?

    Comment by jamesb101 | April 17, 2010 | Reply

  14. james, i know i touched off on a history lesson on daniel’s flip floppin on politics1.com last year but his anti-dem rants of late led me to expose him again on your site.

    Comment by Terry Green | April 17, 2010 | Reply

  15. No problem…..

    Daniel’s part of the place….for as long as he wants.

    But he did support Obama in the primaries..that’s a fact…..

    TPL and Daniel take shots at Obama everytime they get a chance…that’s ok….

    I hold down the fort…..

    I would have no problem with more people jumping in here that LIKE OBAMA……

    I’m always looking for more comments…and on-line regulars…..

    Comment by jamesb101 | April 17, 2010 | Reply

  16. don’t back down Terry…….

    The Dog pound keeps it real!

    Comment by jamesb101 | April 17, 2010 | Reply

  17. The Senate, I have 55 Democrats and 45 Republicans, but the Democrats still have shots at Missouri, Ohio, and New Hamp.

    Comment by Conservative Democrat | April 19, 2010 | Reply

  18. I’m pretty confident that the dem’s keep both Houses of Congress….

    Comment by jamesb101 | April 19, 2010 | Reply


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