commentary on Politics and a little bit of everything else



So how does the Site work?

1. Click on the Governors Races Link.

2. Then click on the Illinois State Page for example.

3. On that Page you’ll see that Scott is tracking the Governor, Senate as well as the Race in IL-10 and IL-14.

As you can see Brady is currently projected by 8,5 % over Quinn; Kirk is projected by 4,0 % over Giannoulias, Dold is projected by 0,5 (very close indeed) over Seals and Foster is projected 3,5 % over Hultgren.


Tacking for the Races will be initiated after the Primaries so keep an Eye on Indiana, North Carolina and Ohio after May 4th.

So, how does Scott to his Projections:

It’s a Formula and it can be found here:


I know this is for 2008 but it’ll be updated shortly.

Scott is using Polls and most importantly Pundits for his Projections.

A Pundit for example is weighted 100 % while a State Poll is only weighted 50 % so IF for example Cook shifts Arkansas into Leans Republican that’s more weighted than the latest State Polls.

I know it’s sometimes confusing but that’s how it is.

Daniel G.

April 17, 2010 - Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Other Things, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates | , , ,


  1. Daniel G’s thoughts on the Senate:

    Here is what I think:

    What I AM saying “Dog”

    that should the GOP win the Cali Seat you COULD see a PUSH by McConnell, Kyl, Cornyn, Thune and Folks to persuade Lieberman to switch Parties. Then it would be 51-49 Republican Senate.

    I was pushing for a 9 Seat gain ALL YEAR and as long as Lieberman is openly talking possibly switching to the GOP like he did before the Heath Care Debate YOU BETTER MAKE sure that we only win 8 Seats or less.

    Heck, just LAST WEEK Lieberman said and I quote: “He’s GLAD MOMENTUM is WITH REPUBLICANS”.

    So what should Dems make out of these Comments? The Fact is: DEMOCRATS CAN’T RELY ON HIM ANYMORE and if we get to 9 Seats I BET that Lieberman will stab Reid or whoever is Majority Leader in the FACE and switch Parties.

    The only thing that changed with Pataki & Thompson declining Bids is that we can’t win the Senate outright right now.

    Daniel G.

    Comment by Daniel G. | April 17, 2010 | Reply

  2. james, i am familiar with electionprojection. it is pretty acurate. i would believe his projections over daniel. daniel wil project just about every goper winning this year. elliot’s site is more objective.

    Comment by Terry Green | April 17, 2010 | Reply

  3. Well me and Eliot are just about on the same page….

    The dem’s keep the House and Senate….. by a hair….

    Comment by jamesb101 | April 17, 2010 | Reply

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