commentary on Politics and a little bit of everything else

Nate Silver doesn’t think Crist has a good chance to win in Florida……Even as an Indie……

Nate Silver @ FiveThirtySeven …who is longwinded…..breaks it down to this…..

By switching out of the party Charlie Crist loses what left of his moderate GOP base and money……

Also…..He feels ( I agree with him ) that Rubio will immediately track to the middle…..trying keep his right support with him ..thus  cementing a win against Meek….

This same thing happened with Obama in the primaries…where he got the left in Iowa and came back to the center for the rest of the states……

This from PoliticalWire who got it from FiveThirtySeven……....

Crist’s Chances

Nate Silver looks at the odds of Florida Gov. Charlie Crist winning the U.S. Senate seat in Florida by running as an independent. The outlook isn’t pretty:

“Right now, Crist is preferred to Rubio by about one-third of Republican registered voters, according to Quinnipiac. But, even though there are some moderate Republicans in Florida (38 percent of the Republican presidential primary electorate in 2008 described themselves as moderate or liberal), it’s asking a lot of a Republican identifier to continue to support a candidate who has just ditched the party — particularly when it seems to be motivated by expediency rather than ideological resolve (Crist’s lack of grivatas, even when compared with someone like Arlen Specter or Joe Lieberman, will hurt him here). Plus, Rubio, already very well liked by conservatives, will get to do a bit of a victory lap as the sole viable candidate on the primary ballot, and can immediately turn his attention to broadening his appeal among party moderates. This might not even require all that much effort; Rubio’s favorability rating among Republicans is 67-7 (!) according to Quinnipiac, and while quite conservative, he seems from a distance to avoid coming across as any kind of dangerous extremist.”

Read more: http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/04/22/crists_chances.html#ixzz0lwt0Aawj

April 23, 2010 - Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Updates | , ,

1 Comment »

  1. […] Nate Silver doesn’t think Crist has a go&#111… […]

    Pingback by tanning bed, lid not fully closed? | Tanning Beds | April 24, 2010 | Reply

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