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Daniel…..Minnesota Governor: State Senator Tom Emmer (R-MN) after capturing the Republican Nomination last week now leads all 3 Democrats for the General Election according to a new KSTP-TV/Survey USA Poll…..

Hello Folks!

I was literally praying for this Survey after both Major Political Parties selected their Nominees for the November General Election.

Winning over the Minnesota Governor Mansion will not be all that easy for Democrats.

According to a new KSTP-TV Survey USA Poll State Senator Thomas “Tom” Emmer (R-MN) who just wrapped up the GOP Enorsement at the State Convention last week leads all 3 Major Democratic Candidates. Emmer leads State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D-DFL) by 8 Points, former Senator Mark Dayton (D-DFL) by 8 Points and former State House Minority Leader Matt Entenza (D-DFL) by 11 Points.

KSTP-TV Survey USA Poll

Minnesota Governor

State Representative Thomas “Tom” Emmer (R)  41 %
State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D)  33 %
Tom Horner (Independent Party)  9 %
Undecided  17 %

State Representative Thomas “Tom” Emmer (R)  42 %
Former Minnesota Senator Mark Dayton (D)  34 %
Tom Horner (Independent Party)  9 %
Undecided  15 %

State Representative Thomas “Tom” Emmer (R)  42 %
Former State House Minority Leader Matt Entenza (D)  31 %
Tom Horner (Independent Party)  10 %
Undecided  16 %

Update……..

I do now have Crosstabs and Commentary from the Survey USA Website:

Six Months Out, Republicans Look to Hold MN Statehouse: In hypothetical election match-ups for Minnesota Governor today, 05/06/10, Republican Tom Emmer defeats each of three potential Democratic opponents, according to SurveyUSA research conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV Minneapolis. Republican Tim Pawlenty is not seeking re-election; the Governor’s seat is open.

In a match-up against Democrat House of Representatives Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, Emmer, a MN House member first elected in 2004, today gets 41%, Kelliher 33%. Independence Party candidate Tom Horner gets 9%; 17% of likely voters are undecided. Among men, Emmer leads by 13 points; among woman, Emmer leads by 3. Voters under 50 back Emmer by a 20-point margin; among those over age 50, Kelliher has a 4-point edge. Conservatives back Emmer by a 9:1 margin; liberals back Kelliher by 7:1; moderates favor Kelliher by a 16-point margin. Kelliher has been endorsed by the Democrat Farmer Labor Party.

In a match-up against former US Senator Mark Dayton, Republican Emmer performs similarly, winning an election today 42% to 34%. Here, Emmer leads by 17 points among men, trails by 3 points among women — a 20-point gender gap. Among voters age 18-49, Emmer leads by 21 points; among voters 50+, Dayton leads by 6. Independence Party candidate Tom Horner takes 1 in 10 votes here, as he does in all three hypothetical matchups; Horner runs twice as strongly among independents as he does among affiliated voters.

In a match-up against former MN House Minority Leader and 2006 Attorney General candidate Matt Entenza,  Republican Emmer leads by 11 points, 42% to 31%. Here, men favor the Republican by 15 points; women favor the Republican by 8. Emmer leads by 22 points among voters age 18-49; the race is tied among voters 50+. 6 in 10 Democrats today vote for Entenza; 1 in 10 Democrats each vote for Emmer and Horner, and 1 in 5 Democrats are undecided.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Minnesota adults 05/03/10 through 05/05/10; of them, 859 were registered to vote; of the registered voters, 588 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the November 2010 general election. Incumbent governor Republican Tim Pawlenty, a potential 2012 Presidential candidate, is not seeking reelection.

Crosstabs Link:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0f7c50ca-bb1d-4b71-8baf-e4a17b7750d2

Link from KSTP-TV …..http://kstp.com/article/stories/S1548641.shtml?cat=89

Major Candidates Campaign Websites:

http://emmerforgovernor.com/
http://margaretforgovernor.com/
http://entenza.com/

Analysis:

This is the second General Election Survey of the Cycle and it shows that EVEN in Minnesota nothing comes easy for the Democrats.

They haven’t won the Governors Race here for 24 years and if SUSA is accurate Democrats have to wait at least 4 more years.

Daniel G.

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May 7, 2010 - Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates, Women | , ,

11 Comments »

  1. Poll Link from KSTP-TV:

    http://kstp.com/article/stories/S1548641.shtml?cat=89

    Comment by Daniel G. | May 7, 2010 | Reply

  2. james,

    Please add the Link to the Post, thanks.

    Comment by Daniel G. | May 7, 2010 | Reply

    • done….

      Comment by jamesb101 | May 7, 2010 | Reply

  3. Daniel, I think the time is NOW for the Minnesota Democrats to win the governorship, they have the majority of statewide offices (including the 2 US Senate seats) and control both houses of the legislature.

    Comment by Conservative Democrat | May 7, 2010 | Reply

    • There are in TROUBLE my friend. They picked the WRONG Candidate at the DFL Convention. Kelliher will not win this. She’s too weak. Rybak would have swamped Emmer even in a bad Democratic Year.

      Comment by Daniel G. | May 7, 2010 | Reply

      • You forgot about Dayton, the ONLY Democratic candidate for Minnesota Governor who has won statewide office before 2 times.

        Comment by Conservative Democrat | May 7, 2010

  4. Dayton would have to win the Primary first before he can ponder about a General Election.

    It’s pretty RARE that the DFL Endorsed Candidate loses in a Primary.

    Comment by Daniel G. | May 7, 2010 | Reply

  5. […] This post was mentioned on Twitter by James Finley. James Finley said: Daniel…..Minnesota Governor: State Senator Tom Emmer (R-MN) after capturing the Republican Nomination last week no… http://wp.me/pAL4p-2IY […]

    Pingback by Tweets that mention Daniel…..Minnesota Governor: State Senator Tom Emmer (R-MN) after capturing the Republican Nomination last week now leads all 3 Democrats for the General Election according to a new KSTP-TV/Survey USA Poll….. « PoliticalDog101.com | May 7, 2010 | Reply

  6. Update

    I do now have Crosstabs and Commentary from the Survey USA Website:

    Six Months Out, Republicans Look to Hold MN Statehouse: In hypothetical election match-ups for Minnesota Governor today, 05/06/10, Republican Tom Emmer defeats each of three potential Democratic opponents, according to SurveyUSA research conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV Minneapolis. Republican Tim Pawlenty is not seeking re-election; the Governor’s seat is open.

    In a match-up against Democrat House of Representatives Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, Emmer, a MN House member first elected in 2004, today gets 41%, Kelliher 33%. Independence Party candidate Tom Horner gets 9%; 17% of likely voters are undecided. Among men, Emmer leads by 13 points; among woman, Emmer leads by 3. Voters under 50 back Emmer by a 20-point margin; among those over age 50, Kelliher has a 4-point edge. Conservatives back Emmer by a 9:1 margin; liberals back Kelliher by 7:1; moderates favor Kelliher by a 16-point margin. Kelliher has been endorsed by the Democrat Farmer Labor Party.

    In a match-up against former US Senator Mark Dayton, Republican Emmer performs similarly, winning an election today 42% to 34%. Here, Emmer leads by 17 points among men, trails by 3 points among women — a 20-point gender gap. Among voters age 18-49, Emmer leads by 21 points; among voters 50+, Dayton leads by 6. Independence Party candidate Tom Horner takes 1 in 10 votes here, as he does in all three hypothetical matchups; Horner runs twice as strongly among independents as he does among affiliated voters.

    In a match-up against former MN House Minority Leader and 2006 Attorney General candidate Matt Entenza, Republican Emmer leads by 11 points, 42% to 31%. Here, men favor the Republican by 15 points; women favor the Republican by 8. Emmer leads by 22 points among voters age 18-49; the race is tied among voters 50+. 6 in 10 Democrats today vote for Entenza; 1 in 10 Democrats each vote for Emmer and Horner, and 1 in 5 Democrats are undecided.

    Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Minnesota adults 05/03/10 through 05/05/10; of them, 859 were registered to vote; of the registered voters, 588 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the November 2010 general election. Incumbent governor Republican Tim Pawlenty, a potential 2012 Presidential candidate, is not seeking reelection.

    Comment by Daniel G. | May 8, 2010 | Reply

  7. Thanks.

    Comment by Daniel G. | May 8, 2010 | Reply


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