Jamesb101.com

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Daniel……AM Polling Summary for Monday 10th May 2010: All about Pennsylvania this morning…..

Hello Folks!

Here is my AM Polling Summary for today AND it’s all about the Pennsylvania Democratic Senate Primary:

[ Sestek and Spector ]

PA-SEN Democratic Primary:

Sestak  47 %  ;  Specter  42 %  (Muhlenberg College / Allentown Morning Call Tracker)

PA-SEN Democratic Primary:

Sestak  47 %  ;  Specter  42 %  (Rasmussen Reports Survey)

Folks, there is now some clear evidence that Specter faces an Uphill Climb here:

1.  President Obama is a NON-FACTOR here.

2.  Progressives and Moderate Democrats view Specter as Republican and NOT as Democrat.

3.  The President presented Sestak an unintended GIFT by selecting Elena Kagan as SCOTUS Pick. SPECTER WAS THE LONE DEMOCRAT who voted against confirming Kagan as Solicitor General last year.

4. Obama is himself in a TOUGH SPOT. Will he go over to PA to help Specter? Conventional Wisdom says he CAN’T ANGER PROGRESSIVES because HE NEEDS them for Re-Election in 2012 in this VERY IMPORTANT “Swing State”.

Caveat: Internal Polling showing Sestak with an 6-10 Point lead so unless Obama campaigns for Specter ‘Ole Arlen is gonna lose.

Funny Remainder:

Just two weeks ago Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell (D-PA) said on MSNBC’S Hardball with Chris Matthews that Specter would win by double digits.

I’m laughing my Ass out Ed.
Even further remainder:
Rendell was the guy who played HAVOC with the Obama Presidential Campaign constantly pushing Obama to come over to PA for a Campaign Stop although the then Illinois Senator led Republican John McCain (R-AZ) by double digits in the State.

Which brings us to the PA-GOV Democratic Primary:

PA-GOV Democratic Primary

: Onorato  35 %  ;  Williams  15 %  ;  Wagner  10 %  ;  Hoeffel  8 % (Muhlenberg/Morning Call Tracker)

PA-GOV Democratic Primary

: Onorato  34 %  ;  Wagner  17 %  ;  Williams  17 %  ;  Hoeffel  9 %  (Rasmussen Reports Survey)

Daniel G.

Ok….On this one you called it……Spector should have been able to pull this off….but it looks like that’s not going to happen…

This the Democratic Primary…..And it seems the more the democratic voter’s see Ole’ Arlen…. the less they like him……

While he has some residual support with Indie’s and Republican’s …that won’t help him in a democratic primary…..

You get a stronger Democratic candidate to run against Toomey Daniel…..

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May 10, 2010 - Posted by | Counterpoints, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates | , ,

13 Comments »

  1. Update:

    GAME OVER for Specter. Someone just informed me that the PA-SEN Democratic Primary WILL BE A CLOSED ONE which means ONLY DEMOCRATS CAN VOTE THERE.

    Comment by Daniel G. | May 10, 2010 | Reply

  2. my point exactly……

    Comment by jamesb101 | May 10, 2010 | Reply

  3. james,

    Let’s not crown Sestak too soon. I’m still uncomfortable making a Projection here. I need something real which means either a Q-Poll or SUSA or Franklin & Marshall.

    Comment by Daniel G. | May 10, 2010 | Reply

  4. That’s next Tuesday right?

    What;s the undecideds number?

    Comment by jamesb101 | May 10, 2010 | Reply

    • Both Polls have 11 % Undecided.

      AND even should Specter win I DISAGREE WITH YOU SHARPLY:

      He won’t have Crossover-Appeal this time around.

      REPUBLICANS HATE HIM FOR HIS FLIP-FLOPPING.

      And Progressives WON’T VOTE for him.

      Thirdly,

      With Sestak Democrats MAY MAKE a MIRACLE RUN and hold the Governor Seat there; WITH Specter it’s over for them.

      Remember: The Senate Race usually stands atop of the Ballot.

      YOU’VE TO LEARN A LOT ABOUT POLITICS. YOU DON’T KNOW HOW THIS SYSTEM RUNS. YOU KNOW NOTHING.

      Comment by Daniel G. | May 10, 2010 | Reply

  5. ok we’ll disagree on that…..

    This race IS in the undecideds hands….

    But is trending away from him…….

    Comment by jamesb101 | May 10, 2010 | Reply

  6. Well james,

    You hailed Nate Silver of 538 a couple of times here on “The Dog” with Posts.

    Silver NAILED this perferctly. He said a couple of months ago
    Specters Support would be soft and THAT’S EXCATLY what happened here.

    KUDOS Nate Silver.

    Comment by Daniel G. | May 10, 2010 | Reply

  7. he,he…that he did…..

    Comment by jamesb101 | May 10, 2010 | Reply

  8. I’m back.

    Comment by Daniel G. | May 10, 2010 | Reply

  9. and so you are!

    Comment by jamesb101 | May 10, 2010 | Reply

  10. Yes, I am and Silver was right.

    Comment by Daniel G. | May 10, 2010 | Reply

  11. well…… I’ll remember you gave props to Silver……

    Comment by jamesb101 | May 10, 2010 | Reply

  12. […] This post was mentioned on Twitter by James Finley. James Finley said: Daniel……AM Polling Summary for Monday 10th May 2010: All about Pennsylvania this morning…..: http://wp.me/pAL4p-2LK […]

    Pingback by Tweets that mention Daniel……AM Polling Summary for Monday 10th May 2010: All about Pennsylvania this morning….. « PoliticalDog101.com -- Topsy.com | May 10, 2010 | Reply


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