Jamesb101.com

commentary on Politics and a little bit of everything else

Daniel with Part 1,2 and 3 of the May 18 Primary Primer…… A Viewers Guide for Kentucky, Arkansas, Pennsylvania and Oregon………..

Hello Folks!

Today is  “The Dogs” GIGANTIC Multiple State Primaries  ………..IT’S TIME to preview our “HOT RACES” for this May18th.

We’ll will have the “Special Election Night Results Thread” starting at 5pm ET on May 18th + GET READY FOR A POTENTIALLY VERY LONG NIGHT.

To keep EVERYBODY updated about those 4 States here is the Viewer Guide:

Kentucky (Bluegrass State): First Polls close at 6pm ET and all Polls will be closed at 7pm ET:

Two “Hot Races” here:

KY-SEN Republican Primary:

Establishment Candidate C. M. “Trey” Grayson vs. Challenger Dr. Randall “Rand” Paul

Will the Tea Parties claim another Scalp of Republicans? Republican Senate Minority Leader  Mitch McConnell (R-KY) handpicked Grayson for this Race, yet the Kentucky Secretary of State ran a horrible Campaign to date and didn’t really connect with Conservative Voters. Paul is leading in the Polls from anywhere between 10-15 Points.

I expect Paul to prevail over Grayson 45-35.

KY-SEN Democratic Primary:

Lt. Governor Daniel “Dr. Dan” Mongiardo vs. Attorney General Jack Conway

Mongiardo was endorsed by his Chief Governor Steve Beshear (D-KY) early on in this Campaign while Attorney General Conway ramped up the Washington Insider Endorsements from the DSCC and his two Kentucky Congressman John Yarmuth and Ben Chandler. Auditor “Crit” Luallen endorsed him also. Both, Chandler and Luallen themselves briefly considered jumping into this Race. Conway was pretty much flat-footed until the Final Weeks of the Campaign and closed the early Polling Gap with Mongiardo.
Will it be enough?

Toss-Up Race for me. Impossible to predict a Winner. Race could go into the later Hours of the Evening. I will re-evaluate this Race over the coming Days.

KY 6th Congressional District (Incumbent Democrat A. B. “Ben” Chandler):

6 Republicans vying to face Chandler in the Fall with former Attorney & Congressional Aide Andy Barr (R-KY) looking the strongest Candidate. Until the Defeat of Rep. Mollohan in WV Chandler had little to fear. Now that Mollohan was defeated and KY-6 borders WV-1 this Seat could move in more competitive Regions.

I expect Barr to prevail over his 5 Challengers.

Daniel G.

Note:…….There are two more parts to the May 18 preview….check below…….

Daniel’s Page #2…….Link……..Pennsylvana and Oregon

Daniel’s Page #3…….Link……..Arkansas

Advertisements

May 13, 2010 - Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Open thread, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates | , , , , , , , , ,

65 Comments »

  1. Ok. thanks,

    Comment by Daniel G. | May 13, 2010 | Reply

  2. I like ya man…..

    Cause this was lot of work……

    Comment by jamesb101 | May 13, 2010 | Reply

    • Arkansas coming also? I guess it comes in Part 3.

      Comment by Daniel G. | May 13, 2010 | Reply

  3. […] This post was mentioned on Twitter by James Finley. James Finley said: Daniel with Part 1 of the May 18 Primary Primer……5 Days and counting to “The Dogs” GIGANTIC May 18th Primaries; … http://wp.me/pAL4p-2PK […]

    Pingback by Tweets that mention Daniel with Part 1 of the May 18 Primary Primer……5 Days and counting to “The Dogs” GIGANTIC May 18th Primaries; A Viewers Guide for Kentucky…… « PoliticalDog101.com -- Topsy.com | May 13, 2010 | Reply

  4. Whew …done!

    I just want to repeat…. excellent job!

    We just have to keep things going in other area’s but much thanks to you!

    I’ll be doing more posts in a few…

    I’m taking a time out……

    Comment by jamesb101 | May 13, 2010 | Reply

  5. Folks!

    Give some Props to “The Dog” as he has done an excellent Job posting this all up.

    Comment by Daniel G. | May 13, 2010 | Reply

    • Damn REAL!

      Comment by jamesb101 | May 13, 2010 | Reply

  6. Daily Kos / Research 2000 Poll

    Kentucky

    Dem Primary

    Mongiardo 39 %
    Conway 36 %
    Others 10 %
    Undecided 15 %

    GOP Primary

    Paul 45 %
    Grayson 35 %
    Others 7 %
    Undecided 13 %

    R2000 basically confirms the SUSA Poll from yesterday but showing a slightly tigther Race on the Republican Side.

    Comment by Daniel G. | May 13, 2010 | Reply

  7. Now 4 Days away from the May 18th Primaries.

    Comment by Daniel G. | May 14, 2010 | Reply

  8. Check the last few posts…..

    He, he, he

    Comment by jamesb101 | May 14, 2010 | Reply

  9. Now 3 Days way,

    James, you really need to change the Headline to 3 Days.

    Comment by Daniel G. | May 15, 2010 | Reply

    • Will do!

      Comment by jamesb101 | May 15, 2010 | Reply

  10. Throwing out my first Predictions:

    KY-SEN GOP

    Paul 55 %
    Grayson 43 %
    Others 2 %

    KY-SEN Dem

    Conway 48 %
    Mongiardo 48 %
    Others 4 %

    Race heads to Recount

    AR-SEN Dem

    Lincoln 50 %
    Halter 42 %
    Morrisson 8 %

    Lincoln wins outright by a few hundred Votes.

    AR-SEN GOP

    Boozman 52 %
    Baker 21 %
    Holt 20 %
    Others 7 %

    PA-SEN

    Sestak 51 %
    Specter 49 %

    PA-12

    Critz (D) 53 %
    Burns (R) 47 %

    Burns also loses Party Primary to Bill Russell.

    PA-11

    I’m going on a limb saying Kanjorski loses his Re-Nomination to Corey O’Brien who also wins in November over Lou Barletta to hold the Seat for the Dems.

    Comment by Daniel G. | May 15, 2010 | Reply

  11. PA-SEN

    FINAL Muhlenberg College / Allentown Morning Call Tracker shows a 44 % TIE between Specter and Sestak.

    Final Quinnipiac University Survey of PA-SEN coming out early tomorrow morning.

    Comment by Daniel G. | May 16, 2010 | Reply

  12. I said this yesterday…I’ll say it again…..
    The race is extremely CLOSE…

    It’s the undecideds…They seem to be leaning Sestak….

    It’s DAMN CLOSE!

    Comment by jamesb101 | May 16, 2010 | Reply

  13. Pollster.com has now FOR THE FIRST TIME Sestak ahead in its Average 43,1 to 42,7.

    That what I wanted. Two Days ago Sestak was down in the Muhlenberg Tracker 45-43, now it’s a 44 TIE.

    Seems as “The Dog” said that Undecideds are moving towards Sestak.

    Comment by Daniel G. | May 16, 2010 | Reply

  14. Hi.

    Comment by Daniel G. | May 16, 2010 | Reply

  15. Check out the talkandpolitics post….

    Comment by jamesb101 | May 16, 2010 | Reply

  16. He, he, he

    Comment by jamesb101 | May 16, 2010 | Reply

  17. donated $10.00 to critz in pa-12.

    Comment by Terry Green | May 16, 2010 | Reply

  18. Good for you Terry!

    Comment by jamesb101 | May 16, 2010 | Reply

  19. PPP

    Final Polls

    PA-12

    Burns 48 %
    Critz 47 %

    Kentucky Senate GOP Primary

    Rand Paul 52 %
    Trey Grayson 34 %

    Looks like Paul has this in the Bag.

    PA-12 like PA-SEN is a Toss-Up BUT because likely higher Turnout I’ll give that to Critz.

    Comment by Daniel G. | May 17, 2010 | Reply

  20. In what might be a good sign for the Sestak Campaign he leads Specter in 12th Congressional District 44-35.

    I expected Sestak would do well in this Rual District. If he can produce these kind of Numbers and hold the Specter Margin down in Philly he has a good Chance at winning.

    Comment by Daniel G. | May 17, 2010 | Reply

  21. I thought you were tired of this race?

    Comment by jamesb101 | May 17, 2010 | Reply

    • I won’t talk about PA-SEN anymore should Specter win.

      Comment by Daniel G. | May 17, 2010 | Reply

  22. BREAKING

    FINAL PENNSYLVANIA QUINNIPIAC POLL

    Sestak 42 %
    Specter 41 %

    A week ago Sestak was down 2.

    Comment by Daniel G. | May 17, 2010 | Reply

    • That certainly with in the MOE…CLOSE!!!!!!

      Comment by jamesb101 | May 17, 2010 | Reply

  23. Folks, I have Paul winning the KY Senate GOP primary by a margin of 56 to 44 and Conway will be the Democratic nominee considering he’s been elected statewide office on his own while Mongiardo has NOT because the LG office is nothing but a pimp’s stool.

    Comment by Conservative Democrat | May 17, 2010 | Reply

  24. BREAKING NEWS, BREAKING NEWS: Rasmussen Reports has released a new poll from the Texas governor’s race showing incumbent Governor Rick Perry (R) leading former Houston Mayor Bill White (D) by double-digits: 51 percent to 38 percent, according to Texas Monthly’s Paul Burka.
    http://www.texasmonthly.com/burkablog

    Burka explains that White’s 6 years as Houston’s 60th mayor are finally coming out in terms of how he ran the city budget and left Houston in an economic recession and it doesn’t help White that his successor Mayor Annise Parker (D) is slamming how she inherited this economic mess.

    Comment by Conservative Democrat | May 17, 2010 | Reply

  25. BREAKING

    White House bracing for Specter loss.

    http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/05/17/white_house_bracing_for_specter_loss.html

    Woo-Hoo,

    Nice to see we’ve this MORON finally out of D.C.

    And Rendell?

    He’s just laughable. 2 weeks ago he said Specter would win by double digits. Now he says Specter would win comfortably.

    VP Biden has cancelled trips to PA to stump for Specter.

    Comment by Daniel G. | May 17, 2010 | Reply

    • Metro-Gate now becoming a problem for former Houston Mayor Bill White (D):

      Comment by Conservative Democrat | May 17, 2010 | Reply

      • That race still polls at a 4% Perry lead ..right?

        Comment by jamesb101 | May 17, 2010

    • It is just too close……The WH is being smart…..Specter is running ads with Obama in them….

      Comment by jamesb101 | May 17, 2010 | Reply

      • NO, James B.

        Rasmussen has a NEW poll out this morning showing Perry leading by 13%.

        LOOK IT UP MAN.

        Comment by Conservative Democrat | May 17, 2010

  26. Daniel G., did you check Rasmussen Report’s new numbers on the TX-GOV contest yet with Perry leading by double-digits ?

    I’m expecting Specter to lose by a small margin and Philly will NOT help him either because Sestak is going to be the Democratic nominee and may lose the Senate seat for the Democrats in November.

    Comment by Conservative Democrat | May 17, 2010 | Reply

  27. james,

    ‘Ole Arlen is going down. The WH has cut Specter loose.

    Comment by Daniel G. | May 17, 2010 | Reply

    • It’s close….

      That’s all…

      Comment by jamesb101 | May 17, 2010 | Reply

      • James B, it is NOT close, the new Rasmussen Reports poll released today, May 17, 2010 shows Perry with a double-digit lead over White: 51% to 38%.

        Comment by Conservative Democrat | May 17, 2010

  28. james,

    Is there any possibility to reestablish the other two Parts of my Primer back to the Front-Page?

    Comment by Daniel G. | May 17, 2010 | Reply

  29. I’ll try that tonight…..

    It takes up a lot of space……

    Comment by jamesb101 | May 17, 2010 | Reply

  30. James B, go to Rasmussen Reports website.

    Second, click on the TX-GOV race link and you’ll see Perry’s lead has extended.

    I’m surprised Our Campaigns.com hasn’t done any new updating on the new polling numbers.

    Comment by Conservative Democrat | May 17, 2010 | Reply

  31. James B, Rasmussen: Perry 51; White 38

    http://www.texasmonthly.com/blogs/burkablog/?p=7010

    Comment by Conservative Democrat | May 17, 2010 | Reply

  32. if critz and sestak wins tuesday it will be a great primary night for me!!!

    Comment by Terry Green | May 18, 2010 | Reply

  33. rendell talking out of his ass. have he seen the polling in the last few weeks in pa? obama won philly by a huge margin but hillary wipped his behind elsewhere. this will be the same for sestak.

    Comment by Terry Green | May 18, 2010 | Reply

  34. whoops! daniel bad news for the gop. according to the realclear politcs and pollser.com us house generic ballot the dems caught and is ahead by a little for the first time in months. gopers celebrating a bit too early of whipping dems in november. it may change but can you gopers please stop running victory laps before the game is over?

    Comment by Terry Green | May 18, 2010 | Reply

  35. Terry,

    I’m convinced Sestak is gonna pull this out tonight. I’m also convinced he’s gonna lose in November.

    Comment by Daniel G. | May 18, 2010 | Reply

    • I hope to God that squish Toomey loses in November, even to Sestak. I will support Libertarian Larry Miller if Toomey gets the GOP nod.

      Comment by SE-779 | May 18, 2010 | Reply

  36. at least you admit where you are coming from…..he, he, he

    Comment by jamesb101 | May 18, 2010 | Reply

  37. The WH will be embracing Sestak james,

    Please post the Souder Post?

    Comment by Daniel G. | May 18, 2010 | Reply

  38. I’ll do it…..

    The WH will wait until the PA call tonight..not a second before….

    Comment by jamesb101 | May 18, 2010 | Reply

  39. daniel i guess you are ignoring the polls showing sestak a better general election candidate than specter. 2 pa is a democratic state the last time i checked. very blue. so don’t do any celebrating before november.

    Comment by Terry Green | May 18, 2010 | Reply

    • Are you joking? PA is a “Swing State” as is Ohio and Florida.

      I just waiting on james calling Ohio a Democratic State like he always does.

      Comment by Daniel G. | May 18, 2010 | Reply

      • we’ll see

        Comment by jamesb101 | May 18, 2010

  40. james, last minute wife and i decided to check out a afternoon movie iron man 2. going out to lunch and do a movie. will be in later this eve to blog the results tonite!

    Comment by Terry Green | May 18, 2010 | Reply

  41. You’ll love the movie…..

    Have fun!

    Comment by jamesb101 | May 18, 2010 | Reply

  42. james,

    I knew you would spite up your crappy shit.

    Comment by Daniel G. | May 18, 2010 | Reply

  43. ok you have to explain that comment?

    Comment by jamesb101 | May 18, 2010 | Reply

    • james,

      You can’t say to any State it Leans Democrat. And that’s what are doing time and time again. It makes my angry. Stop it.

      Comment by Daniel G. | May 18, 2010 | Reply

      • Leans is the least of things….NY lleans democratic but has had Republican Governors and has had Republican Mayors in NYC for the last 20+ years

        Comment by jamesb101 | May 18, 2010

  44. Not kidding daniel. Know your history. Pa dem since 1992. Last 5 gop pres nominee to win it. Zero. Know what u are talking about.

    Comment by Terry Green | May 18, 2010 | Reply

  45. Folks, my take on Tuesday’s Senate showdowns:

    Kentucky (Open): I expect Rand Paul (R) to be the Republican nominee for the United States Senate tonight, defeating KY Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) by a double-digit margin of 56% to 39%. The Democrats will decide their primary between Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo (D) and KY State Attorney General Jack Conway (D), who was the 3rd highest-vote getter statewide among Democrats in 2007, and I’m going out a limb and predict Conway becomes the Democratic nominee by a narrow margin here.

    General election prediction: TOSS-UP depending on who is the Democratic nominee since Paul is likely the GOP nominee.

    Pennsylvania: longtime incumbent United States Senator Arlen Specter (D-PA) is poised to LOSE the Democratic primary to upstart US Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) tonight: 55-45, but the question is will the Obama WH and DSCC fall in line to support Sestak in the general, who will face an uphill battle against former US Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA) ?

    Arkansas: incumbent United States Senator Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) will vanquish liberal Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter (D) in the primary tonight by crossing the 50 percent mark without forcing a runoff, which would have drained DSCC resources that is needed for the general election.

    Comment by Conservative Democrat | May 18, 2010 | Reply

    • 1. Doesn’t matter who the Dem. Nominee in AR is. They will lose both.

      2. Ditto for PA.

      Comment by Daniel G. | May 18, 2010 | Reply

  46. And sarah palin is going to be the next president. Not! Ready to lose tonite daniel? No it all punk.

    Comment by Terry Green | May 18, 2010 | Reply

  47. Paul projected the GOP nominee for KY-SEN.

    Comment by SE-779 | May 18, 2010 | Reply

  48. SESTAK WINS!!!

    Comment by SE-779 | May 18, 2010 | Reply


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: