Daniel with Part 1,2 and 3 of the May 18 Primary Primer…… A Viewers Guide for Kentucky, Arkansas, Pennsylvania and Oregon………..
Today is “The Dogs” GIGANTIC Multiple State Primaries ………..IT’S TIME to preview our “HOT RACES” for this May18th.
We’ll will have the “Special Election Night Results Thread” starting at 5pm ET on May 18th + GET READY FOR A POTENTIALLY VERY LONG NIGHT.
To keep EVERYBODY updated about those 4 States here is the Viewer Guide:
Kentucky (Bluegrass State): First Polls close at 6pm ET and all Polls will be closed at 7pm ET:
Two “Hot Races” here:
KY-SEN Republican Primary:
Establishment Candidate C. M. “Trey” Grayson vs. Challenger Dr. Randall “Rand” Paul
Will the Tea Parties claim another Scalp of Republicans? Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) handpicked Grayson for this Race, yet the Kentucky Secretary of State ran a horrible Campaign to date and didn’t really connect with Conservative Voters. Paul is leading in the Polls from anywhere between 10-15 Points.
I expect Paul to prevail over Grayson 45-35.
KY-SEN Democratic Primary:
Lt. Governor Daniel “Dr. Dan” Mongiardo vs. Attorney General Jack Conway
Mongiardo was endorsed by his Chief Governor Steve Beshear (D-KY) early on in this Campaign while Attorney General Conway ramped up the Washington Insider Endorsements from the DSCC and his two Kentucky Congressman John Yarmuth and Ben Chandler. Auditor “Crit” Luallen endorsed him also. Both, Chandler and Luallen themselves briefly considered jumping into this Race. Conway was pretty much flat-footed until the Final Weeks of the Campaign and closed the early Polling Gap with Mongiardo.
Will it be enough?
Toss-Up Race for me. Impossible to predict a Winner. Race could go into the later Hours of the Evening. I will re-evaluate this Race over the coming Days.
KY 6th Congressional District (Incumbent Democrat A. B. “Ben” Chandler):
6 Republicans vying to face Chandler in the Fall with former Attorney & Congressional Aide Andy Barr (R-KY) looking the strongest Candidate. Until the Defeat of Rep. Mollohan in WV Chandler had little to fear. Now that Mollohan was defeated and KY-6 borders WV-1 this Seat could move in more competitive Regions.
I expect Barr to prevail over his 5 Challengers.
Daniel G.
Note:…….There are two more parts to the May 18 preview….check below…….
Daniel’s Page #2…….Link……..Pennsylvana and Oregon
Daniel’s Page #3…….Link……..Arkansas
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Jamesb101.com 
Ok. thanks,
I like ya man…..
Cause this was lot of work……
Arkansas coming also? I guess it comes in Part 3.
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Whew …done!
I just want to repeat…. excellent job!
We just have to keep things going in other area’s but much thanks to you!
I’ll be doing more posts in a few…
I’m taking a time out……
Folks!
Give some Props to “The Dog” as he has done an excellent Job posting this all up.
Damn REAL!
Daily Kos / Research 2000 Poll
Kentucky
Dem Primary
Mongiardo 39 %
Conway 36 %
Others 10 %
Undecided 15 %
GOP Primary
Paul 45 %
Grayson 35 %
Others 7 %
Undecided 13 %
R2000 basically confirms the SUSA Poll from yesterday but showing a slightly tigther Race on the Republican Side.
Now 4 Days away from the May 18th Primaries.
Check the last few posts…..
He, he, he
Now 3 Days way,
James, you really need to change the Headline to 3 Days.
Will do!
Throwing out my first Predictions:
KY-SEN GOP
Paul 55 %
Grayson 43 %
Others 2 %
KY-SEN Dem
Conway 48 %
Mongiardo 48 %
Others 4 %
Race heads to Recount
AR-SEN Dem
Lincoln 50 %
Halter 42 %
Morrisson 8 %
Lincoln wins outright by a few hundred Votes.
AR-SEN GOP
Boozman 52 %
Baker 21 %
Holt 20 %
Others 7 %
PA-SEN
Sestak 51 %
Specter 49 %
PA-12
Critz (D) 53 %
Burns (R) 47 %
Burns also loses Party Primary to Bill Russell.
PA-11
I’m going on a limb saying Kanjorski loses his Re-Nomination to Corey O’Brien who also wins in November over Lou Barletta to hold the Seat for the Dems.
PA-SEN
FINAL Muhlenberg College / Allentown Morning Call Tracker shows a 44 % TIE between Specter and Sestak.
Final Quinnipiac University Survey of PA-SEN coming out early tomorrow morning.
I said this yesterday…I’ll say it again…..
The race is extremely CLOSE…
It’s the undecideds…They seem to be leaning Sestak….
It’s DAMN CLOSE!
Pollster.com has now FOR THE FIRST TIME Sestak ahead in its Average 43,1 to 42,7.
That what I wanted. Two Days ago Sestak was down in the Muhlenberg Tracker 45-43, now it’s a 44 TIE.
Seems as “The Dog” said that Undecideds are moving towards Sestak.
Hi.
Check out the talkandpolitics post….
He, he, he
donated $10.00 to critz in pa-12.
Good for you Terry!
PPP
Final Polls
PA-12
Burns 48 %
Critz 47 %
Kentucky Senate GOP Primary
Rand Paul 52 %
Trey Grayson 34 %
Looks like Paul has this in the Bag.
PA-12 like PA-SEN is a Toss-Up BUT because likely higher Turnout I’ll give that to Critz.
In what might be a good sign for the Sestak Campaign he leads Specter in 12th Congressional District 44-35.
I expected Sestak would do well in this Rual District. If he can produce these kind of Numbers and hold the Specter Margin down in Philly he has a good Chance at winning.
I thought you were tired of this race?
I won’t talk about PA-SEN anymore should Specter win.
BREAKING
FINAL PENNSYLVANIA QUINNIPIAC POLL
Sestak 42 %
Specter 41 %
A week ago Sestak was down 2.
That certainly with in the MOE…CLOSE!!!!!!
Folks, I have Paul winning the KY Senate GOP primary by a margin of 56 to 44 and Conway will be the Democratic nominee considering he’s been elected statewide office on his own while Mongiardo has NOT because the LG office is nothing but a pimp’s stool.
BREAKING NEWS, BREAKING NEWS: Rasmussen Reports has released a new poll from the Texas governor’s race showing incumbent Governor Rick Perry (R) leading former Houston Mayor Bill White (D) by double-digits: 51 percent to 38 percent, according to Texas Monthly’s Paul Burka.
http://www.texasmonthly.com/burkablog
Burka explains that White’s 6 years as Houston’s 60th mayor are finally coming out in terms of how he ran the city budget and left Houston in an economic recession and it doesn’t help White that his successor Mayor Annise Parker (D) is slamming how she inherited this economic mess.
BREAKING
White House bracing for Specter loss.
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/05/17/white_house_bracing_for_specter_loss.html
Woo-Hoo,
Nice to see we’ve this MORON finally out of D.C.
And Rendell?
He’s just laughable. 2 weeks ago he said Specter would win by double digits. Now he says Specter would win comfortably.
VP Biden has cancelled trips to PA to stump for Specter.
Metro-Gate now becoming a problem for former Houston Mayor Bill White (D):
That race still polls at a 4% Perry lead ..right?
It is just too close……The WH is being smart…..Specter is running ads with Obama in them….
NO, James B.
Rasmussen has a NEW poll out this morning showing Perry leading by 13%.
LOOK IT UP MAN.
Daniel G., did you check Rasmussen Report’s new numbers on the TX-GOV contest yet with Perry leading by double-digits ?
I’m expecting Specter to lose by a small margin and Philly will NOT help him either because Sestak is going to be the Democratic nominee and may lose the Senate seat for the Democrats in November.
james,
‘Ole Arlen is going down. The WH has cut Specter loose.
It’s close….
That’s all…
James B, it is NOT close, the new Rasmussen Reports poll released today, May 17, 2010 shows Perry with a double-digit lead over White: 51% to 38%.
james,
Is there any possibility to reestablish the other two Parts of my Primer back to the Front-Page?
I’ll try that tonight…..
It takes up a lot of space……
James B, go to Rasmussen Reports website.
Second, click on the TX-GOV race link and you’ll see Perry’s lead has extended.
I’m surprised Our Campaigns.com hasn’t done any new updating on the new polling numbers.
James B, Rasmussen: Perry 51; White 38
if critz and sestak wins tuesday it will be a great primary night for me!!!
rendell talking out of his ass. have he seen the polling in the last few weeks in pa? obama won philly by a huge margin but hillary wipped his behind elsewhere. this will be the same for sestak.
whoops! daniel bad news for the gop. according to the realclear politcs and pollser.com us house generic ballot the dems caught and is ahead by a little for the first time in months. gopers celebrating a bit too early of whipping dems in november. it may change but can you gopers please stop running victory laps before the game is over?
Terry,
I’m convinced Sestak is gonna pull this out tonight. I’m also convinced he’s gonna lose in November.
I hope to God that squish Toomey loses in November, even to Sestak. I will support Libertarian Larry Miller if Toomey gets the GOP nod.
at least you admit where you are coming from…..he, he, he
The WH will be embracing Sestak james,
Please post the Souder Post?
I’ll do it…..
The WH will wait until the PA call tonight..not a second before….
daniel i guess you are ignoring the polls showing sestak a better general election candidate than specter. 2 pa is a democratic state the last time i checked. very blue. so don’t do any celebrating before november.
Are you joking? PA is a “Swing State” as is Ohio and Florida.
I just waiting on james calling Ohio a Democratic State like he always does.
we’ll see
james, last minute wife and i decided to check out a afternoon movie iron man 2. going out to lunch and do a movie. will be in later this eve to blog the results tonite!
You’ll love the movie…..
Have fun!
james,
I knew you would spite up your crappy shit.
ok you have to explain that comment?
james,
You can’t say to any State it Leans Democrat. And that’s what are doing time and time again. It makes my angry. Stop it.
Leans is the least of things….NY lleans democratic but has had Republican Governors and has had Republican Mayors in NYC for the last 20+ years
Not kidding daniel. Know your history. Pa dem since 1992. Last 5 gop pres nominee to win it. Zero. Know what u are talking about.
Folks, my take on Tuesday’s Senate showdowns:
Kentucky (Open): I expect Rand Paul (R) to be the Republican nominee for the United States Senate tonight, defeating KY Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) by a double-digit margin of 56% to 39%. The Democrats will decide their primary between Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo (D) and KY State Attorney General Jack Conway (D), who was the 3rd highest-vote getter statewide among Democrats in 2007, and I’m going out a limb and predict Conway becomes the Democratic nominee by a narrow margin here.
General election prediction: TOSS-UP depending on who is the Democratic nominee since Paul is likely the GOP nominee.
Pennsylvania: longtime incumbent United States Senator Arlen Specter (D-PA) is poised to LOSE the Democratic primary to upstart US Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) tonight: 55-45, but the question is will the Obama WH and DSCC fall in line to support Sestak in the general, who will face an uphill battle against former US Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA) ?
Arkansas: incumbent United States Senator Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) will vanquish liberal Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter (D) in the primary tonight by crossing the 50 percent mark without forcing a runoff, which would have drained DSCC resources that is needed for the general election.
1. Doesn’t matter who the Dem. Nominee in AR is. They will lose both.
2. Ditto for PA.
And sarah palin is going to be the next president. Not! Ready to lose tonite daniel? No it all punk.
Paul projected the GOP nominee for KY-SEN.
SESTAK WINS!!!