Jamesb101.com

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Daniel with Part 2 of the May 18 Primary Primer…….Pennsylvania and Oregon…..

These States will also vote on May 18th…and We’ll be there to cover it that night……

Pennsylvania (Keystone State) Polls close at 8pm ET:

PA-SEN Democratic Primary:

Incumbent Senator Arlen Specter vs. U. S. Rep. Joseph A. “Joe” Sestak

For me it’s the “Race of the Night”.

Even the Arkansas Senate Democratic Primary can’t Match-Up with that Race. Specter’s constant flip-flopping and Party Switching has cost him dearly. Sestak managed to cut a once 20-Point lead a month ago down to ZERO. How REMARKABLE is that? Yet, it goes even further as the late Mojo appears to be with Sestak. This Race will be tight until the end and counting could go into the wee Hours of Wednesday Morning. Noteable: Latest Polling on the General Election now showing Sestak as the stronger Candidate.

What can I say here? TOSS-UP RACE. I’ve no clue who wins currently and I’m uncomfortable making a Projection here. However I will re-eveluate this Race so I can hopefully throw a Projection out by Monday.


PA-SEN Republican Primary:

Former U. S. Rep. Patrick J. Toomey vs. Peg Luksik

Toomey will cruise to the Republican Nomination.

I expect Toomey to win with at least 30 Points.

PA-GOV Democratic Primary:

Allegheny County Chief Executive Daniel “Dan” Onorato
State Auditor General Jack Wagner
Former U. S. Rep. Joseph “Joe” Hoeffel
State Senator Anthony Williams

Onorato is enjoying a 15-Point lead in latest Polling over his nearest Challenger in the Final Days of the Primary Campaign. I doubt he’ll lose that much.

I expect Onorato to win this Primary quite comfortable.

PA-GOV Republican Primary:

Attorney General Tom Corbett vs. State Representative Sam Rohrer

I expect Corbett to win quite easily. Rohrer will possibly get between 15-20 % of the Vote.

Pennsylvania 3rd Congressional District (Incumbent Democrat U. S. Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper):

Democratic Primary

U. S. Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper
Former Investment Banker Mel Marin

Republican Primary

Steve Fisher
Ed Franz
Clayton Grabb
Paul Huber
Mike Kelly
Martha Moore

I’ve no Idea who wins on the Republican Side however it will be interesting how much of the Vote Dahlkemper’s Democratic Challenger Mel Marin gets here.

Pennsylvania 4th Congressional District (Incumbent Democrat U. S. Rep. Jason Altmire):

Democratic Primary

No Primary as Altmire is running Unopposed

Republican Primary

Mary Beth Buchanan
Keith Rothfus

Tough to tell who is the better Candidate against Altmire in November as I’m no PA Insider so I’ll leave that up to Voters here.

Pennsylvania 6th Congressional District (Incumbent Republican U. S. Rep. Jim Gerlach):

Republican Primary

U. S. Rep. Jim Gerlach
Pat Sellers

Democratic Primary

Doug Pike
Manan Tivedi

I expect Gerlach to prevail over Sellers. On the Democratic Side Pike is favoured by the Establishment while Tivedi is hailed by the Grassroots. Could be a very close Race here. Pike will probably prevail in the end.

Pennsylvania 7th Congressional District (Open, Inc. Democrat Joseph A. “Joe” Sestak running for the United States Senate):

Democratic Primary

Gail Conner
Bryan Lentz
E. Teresa Touey

Republican Primary

No Primary as Republican Attorney Pat Meehan is running Unopposed.

Lentz is the endorsed Candidate by the DCCC and Sestak so I expect him to prevail here.


Pennsylvania 10th Congressional District (Incumbent Democrat U. S. Rep. Chris Carney):


Democratic Primary

No Primary as Carney is running Unopposed

Republican Primary

Malcolm Derk
David Madeira
Tom Marino

I expect Marino to face Carney in November.

Pennsylvania 11th Congressional District (Incumbent Democrat U. S. Rep. Paul Konjorski):

Democratic Primary

U. S. Rep. Paul Kanjorski
Brian Kelly
Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O’Brien

If you judge Politico Mollohan’s Defeat last Tuesday has endangered Kanjorski’s Democratic Primary.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0510/37185.html

What will Voters decide? Will they throw Kanjorski out in the hope that they get a better Candidate in O’Brien with less baggage. We’ll see.

Republican Primary

Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta
Chris Paige

I expect Barletta to win quite easily over Paige.

Pennsylvania 12th Congressional District Special Election:

Mark Critz (D)  vs.  Tim Burns (R)

Latest Polling suggests Democrats might be able to hang onto this Seat because of the closeness of the Specter – Sestak Senate Race so for now I give Democrats that Seat.

Pennsylvania 12th Congressional District (Open, the late Democrat U. S. Rep. John Murtha died in February):

Democratic Primary

Mark Critz
Ryan Bucchianieri
Ron Mackell Jr.

Republican Primary

Tim Burns
Bill Russell

Critz will easily win his Primary. However on the Republican Side Burns and Russell are locked in a tight Race which could o either way.

Oregon (Beaver State) Polls close at 11pm ET:

OR-GOV Democratic Primary:

Former Governor John Kitzhaber  vs.  Former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury

I espect Kitzhaber to prevail easily over Bradbury.

OR-GOV Republican Primary:

Former NBA-Professional Chris Dudley  vs.  Businessman Allan Alley

I expect Dudley to prevail over Alley by around 10-15 Points.

OR-SEN Republican Primary:

Law School Professor Jim Huffman  vs.  Realtor Tom Stutzman

I expect the preferred NRSC Candidate Huffman to prevail here.

OR-SEN Democratic Primary:

Wyden will easily dispatch his two Democratic Challengers.

I hope you enjoyed this little May 18th Election Guide Preview. I’ll hope we will see you on Tuesday.

Keep checking this Post over the next Days for Updates, Polling News and latest Projections about the Races I listened.

Daniel G.

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May 13, 2010 - Posted by | Other Things | ,

11 Comments »

  1. Okay Folks!

    The Dog has managed to load 3 of our beautiful States so lets get straight into.

    We do have two new Surveys out for our Marquee Senate Race in PA.

    The Muhlenberg Tracker

    Sestak 44 %
    Specter 44 %
    Undecided 13 %

    However a new Suffolk University Poll looks like this:

    Sestak 49 %
    Specter 40 %
    Undecided 12 %

    While I’m very cautious about Suffolk (They had Fisher ahead in Ohio by 27 over Brunner) in confirms that the Mojo is still on Sestaks Side.

    Comment by Daniel G. | May 13, 2010 | Reply

  2. […] This post was mentioned on Twitter by James Finley. James Finley said: Daniel with Part 2 of the May 18 Primary Primer…….Pennsylvania and Oregon…..: http://wp.me/pAL4p-2PM […]

    Pingback by Tweets that mention Daniel with Part 2 of the May 18 Primary Primer…….Pennsylvania and Oregon….. « PoliticalDog101.com -- Topsy.com | May 13, 2010 | Reply

  3. GOOD NEWS for Democrats.

    Looks like Charlie Cook sees the same things that I see.

    He changed the PA-12 Race back to Toss-Up from Leans Republican.

    Comment by Daniel G. | May 13, 2010 | Reply

  4. With the Suffolk Poll Sestak has moved within a Point in the Pollster.com Average

    http://www.pollster.com/polls/pa/10-pa-sen-dempr-svse.php

    Comment by Daniel G. | May 13, 2010 | Reply

    • Yep……

      He’s the strong guy right now!

      Comment by jamesb101 | May 13, 2010 | Reply

  5. Sestak however leads in the RCP Average:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_democratic_primary-1050.html

    Comment by Daniel G. | May 13, 2010 | Reply

  6. New Polls out of PA this morning still showing the Race as a Toss-Up:

    In the Muhlenberg Tracker Specter leads 45-43 while in a Research/DKOS Survey Sestak leads 45-43.

    Pollster.com shows Specter leads by 0,8 Percent on Average while Real Clear Politics shows Sestak ahead by 2,4 Points.

    Comment by Daniel G. | May 14, 2010 | Reply

  7. Two new PA Polls out:

    Muhlenberg Tracker has Specter up 45-43

    Research 2000/Kos has Sestak up as expected 45-43.

    Comment by Daniel G. | May 14, 2010 | Reply

  8. Sestak has moved within a Point in the Pollster.com Average trailing Specter by only 0,8 Percent

    http://www.pollster.com/polls/pa/10-pa-sen-dempr-svse.php

    Comment by Daniel G. | May 14, 2010 | Reply

  9. Sestak still lead RCP Average by 2,3 Points

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_democratic_primary-1050.html

    Comment by Daniel G. | May 14, 2010 | Reply


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