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Daniel with Part 3 of the May 18th Primary Primer……Arkansas

This  State will also vote on May 18th…and We’ll be there to cover it that night……
Arkansas (Natural State): Polls close at 8.30pm ET:

Again Two “Hot Races”

Why is there so much Attention on the ‘Natural State’?

It’s because of the Senate Races.

AR-SEN Democratic Primary:

Incumbent Senator Blanche Lambert Lincoln vs. Arkansas Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter

Democrats and especially the liberal wing of the Party is very unhappy with the Votes Lincoln has cast in the Past on Health Care, etc. They poured Hundreds of Dollars into this Race. While Lincoln started with a big Money & Polling Advantage that has dwindled to low double digits now. Arkansas is one of the few Southern States in the Nation that are holding Run-Offs in case one Candidate can’t clear the 50 % Benchmark. And that’s what might just happen next week.

I  still give Lincoln  the edge here but a Run-Off looks increasingly likely see this POLITICO Piece:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0510/37164.html

I will re-evaluate this Race some time over the coming weekend to see if there is any latest surge for Lincoln or Halter.

AR-SEN Republican Primary:

U. S. Rep. John N. Boozman vs. State Senator Gilbert Baker vs. ’04 GOP Candidate Jim Holt

Republicans were headed for a bruising and fracturing Primary Fight until U. S. Rep. John N. Boozman (R-AR 3) pulled the trigger and chosed to run for Senate. He’s now the Frontrunner and latest Polling suggest he might just be able to ESCAPE a Run-Off Election.

I give Boozman the edge here and say that there will be NO Run-Off.

Arkansas 1st Congressional District (Open, Democrat U. S. Rep. Marion Berry is retiring):

Democratic Primary

Steve Bryles
Chad Causey
David Cook
Terry Green
Ben Ponder
Tim Wooldridge

Republican Primary

Rick Crawford
Princella Smith

I expect Crawford to win the Republican Primary. The Democratic Primary is pretty much in LIMBO and could go into a Run-Off. If that’s the case Wooldridge will be one of the Run-Off Candidates I think.

Arkansas 2nd Congressional District (Open Democrat U. S. Rep. Vic Snyder is retiring):

Democratic Primary

John Adams
David Boling
Joyce Elliott
Patrick Kennedy
Robbie Wills

Republican Primary

Tim Griffith
Scott Wallace

Griffith is likely to win the GOP Primary while the Democrats once again heading for a Run-Off.

Arkansas 3rd Congressional District (Open, Republican U. S. Rep. John N. Boozman is running for the United States Senate):

Republican Primary

Cecile Bledsoe
Gunnar DeLay
Steve Lowry
Kurt Maddox
Doug Matayo
Mike Moore
Bernard Skoch
Steve Womack

Democratic Primary

No Primary as Fayetteville City Attorney David Whitaker is running Unopposed

Looking at Candidates in the GOP Primary my first thought was this could go into a Run-Off. That might happen although there is one Candidate who could win this outright: Rogers Mayor Steve Womack. He has ranked up the most support here in Public & Private Polling so we’ll see.

Arkansas 4th Congressional District (Incumbent Democrat U. S. Rep. Mike Ross):

Democratic Primary

No Primary as Ross is running Unopposed

Republican Primary

Glenn Gallas
Beth Anne Rankin

I expect Rankin to win the Primary.

Daniel G.

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May 13, 2010 - Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates, Women | ,

3 Comments »

  1. […] This post was mentioned on Twitter by James Finley. James Finley said: Daniel with Part 3 of the May 18th Primary Primer……Arkansas: http://wp.me/pAL4p-2PN […]

    Pingback by Tweets that mention Daniel with Part 3 of the May 18th Primary Primer……Arkansas « PoliticalDog101.com -- Topsy.com | May 13, 2010 | Reply

  2. Daily Kos / Research 2000 Survey

    Dem. Primary

    Lincoln 46 %
    Halter 37 %
    Morrison 6 %
    Undecided 11 %

    GOP Primary

    Boozman 46 %
    Holt 19 %
    Baker 12 %
    Hendren 6 %
    Others 4 %
    Undecided 13 %

    This could be tough for Halter to force Lincoln into a Run-Off as almost all of the Undecideds would need to break for him.

    Comment by Daniel G. | May 13, 2010 | Reply


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