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Welcome to the May 18th Gigantic Primary Night!……..

Daniel Starts the night off at 7:00PM DST…….The Dog will come on at 9:30 DST…….

Get your popcorn and settle back !

Two “Hot Races” here:

KY-SEN Republican Primary:

Establishment Candidate C. M. “Trey” Grayson vs. Challenger Dr. Randall “Rand” Paul

{I expect Paul to prevail over Grayson 45-35.}

KY-SEN Democratic Primary:

Lt. Governor Daniel “Dr. Dan” Mongiardo vs. Attorney General Jack Conway

{ Toss-Up Race for me. Impossible to predict a Winner. Race could go into the later Hours of the Evening. }

KY 6th Congressional District (Incumbent Democrat A. B. “Ben” Chandler):

6 Republicans vying to face Chandler in the Fall with former Attorney & Congressional Aide Andy Barr (R-KY) looking the strongest Candidate.

PA-SEN Democratic Primary:

Incumbent Senator Arlen Specter vs. U. S. Rep. Joseph A. “Joe” Sestak

For me it’s the ”Race of the Night”.

{ What can I say here? TOSS-UP RACE. I’ve no clue who wins currently and I’m uncomfortable making a Projection here. However I will re-eveluate this Race so I can hopefully throw a Projection out by Monday. }

PA-SEN Republican Primary:

Former U. S. Rep. Patrick J. Toomey vs. Peg Luksik

{I expect Toomey to win with at least 30 Points. }

PA-GOV Democratic Primary:

Allegheny County Chief Executive Daniel “Dan” Onorato
State Auditor General Jack Wagner
Former U. S. Rep. Joseph “Joe” Hoeffel
State Senator Anthony Williams

{ I expect Onorato to win this Primary quite comfortable. }

PA-GOV Republican Primary:

Attorney General Tom Corbett vs. State Representative Sam Rohrer

{ I expect Corbett to win quite easily. Rohrer will possibly get between 15-20 % of the Vote. }

Pennsylvania 3rd Congressional District (Incumbent Democrat U. S. Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper):

Democratic Primary

U. S. Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper
Former Investment Banker Mel Marin

Republican Primary

Steve Fisher
Ed Franz
Clayton Grabb
Paul Huber
Mike Kelly
Martha Moore

{I’ve no Idea who wins on the Republican Side however it will be interesting how much of the Vote Dahlkemper’s Democratic Challenger Mel Marin gets here.}

Pennsylvania 4th Congressional District (Incumbent Democrat U. S. Rep. Jason Altmire):

Democratic Primary

No Primary as Altmire is running Unopposed

Republican Primary

Mary Beth Buchanan
Keith Rothfus

Tough to tell who is the better Candidate against Altmire in November as I’m no PA Insider so I’ll leave that up to Voters here.

Pennsylvania 6th Congressional District (Incumbent Republican U. S. Rep. Jim Gerlach):

Republican Primary

U. S. Rep. Jim Gerlach
Pat Sellers

Democratic Primary

Doug Pike
Manan Tivedi

I expect Gerlach to prevail over Sellers. On the Democratic Side Pike is favoured by the Establishment while Tivedi is hailed by the Grassroots. Could be a very close Race here. Pike will probably prevail in the end.

Pennsylvania 7th Congressional District (Open, Inc. Democrat Joseph A. “Joe” Sestak running for the United States Senate):

Democratic Primary

Gail Conner
Bryan Lentz
E. Teresa Touey

Republican Primary

No Primary as Republican Attorney Pat Meehan is running Unopposed.

Lentz is the endorsed Candidate by the DCCC and Sestak so I expect him to prevail here.
Pennsylvania 10th Congressional District (Incumbent Democrat U. S. Rep. Chris Carney):

Democratic Primary

No Primary as Carney is running Unopposed

Republican Primary

Malcolm Derk
David Madeira
Tom Marino

I expect Marino to face Carney in November.

Pennsylvania 11th Congressional District (Incumbent Democrat U. S. Rep. Paul Konjorski):

Democratic Primary

U. S. Rep. Paul Kanjorski
Brian Kelly
Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O’Brien

If you judge Politico Mollohan’s Defeat last Tuesday has endangered Kanjorski’s Democratic Primary.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0510/37185.html
Republican Primary

Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta
Chris Paige

I expect Barletta to win quite easily over Paige.

Pennsylvania 12th Congressional District Special Election:

Mark Critz (D)  vs.  Tim Burns (R)

Latest Polling suggests Democrats might be able to hang onto this Seat because of the closeness of the Specter – Sestak Senate Race so for now I give Democrats that Seat.

Pennsylvania 12th Congressional District (Open, the late Democrat U. S. Rep. John Murtha died in February):

Democratic Primary

Mark Critz
Ryan Bucchianieri
Ron Mackell Jr.

Republican Primary

Tim Burns
Bill Russell

Critz will easily win his Primary.

Oregon (Beaver State) Polls close at 11pm ET:

AR-SEN Democratic Primary:

Incumbent Senator Blanche Lambert Lincoln vs. Arkansas Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter

Democrats and especially the liberal wing of the Party is very unhappy with the Votes Lincoln has cast in the Past on Health Care, etc. They poured Hundreds of Dollars into this Race. While Lincoln started with a big Money & Polling Advantage that has dwindled to low double digits now. Arkansas is one of the few Southern States in the Nation that are holding Run-Offs in case one Candidate can’t clear the 50 % Benchmark. And that’s what might just happen next week.

I  still give Lincoln  the edge here but a Run-Off looks increasingly likely see this POLITICO Piece:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0510/37164.html

I will re-evaluate this Race some time over the coming weekend to see if there is any latest surge for Lincoln or Halter.

AR-SEN Republican Primary:

U. S. Rep. John N. Boozman vs. State Senator Gilbert Baker vs. ’04 GOP Candidate Jim Holt

I give Boozman the edge here and say that there will be NO Run-Off.

Arkansas 1st Congressional District (Open, Democrat U. S. Rep. Marion Berry is retiring):

Democratic Primary

Steve Bryles
Chad Causey
David Cook
Terry Green
Ben Ponder
Tim Wooldridge

Republican Primary

Rick Crawford
Princella Smith

I expect Crawford to win the Republican Primary.

Arkansas 2nd Congressional District (Open Democrat U. S. Rep. Vic Snyder is retiring):

Democratic Primary

John Adams
David Boling
Joyce Elliott
Patrick Kennedy
Robbie Wills

Republican Primary

Tim Griffith
Scott Wallace

Griffith is likely to win the GOP Primary while the Democrats once again heading for a Run-Off.

Arkansas 3rd Congressional District (Open, Republican U. S. Rep. John N. Boozman is running for the United States Senate):

Republican Primary

Cecile Bledsoe
Gunnar DeLay
Steve Lowry
Kurt Maddox
Doug Matayo
Mike Moore
Bernard Skoch
Steve Womack

Democratic Primary

No Primary as Fayetteville City Attorney David Whitaker is running Unopposed

Looking at Candidates in the GOP Primary my first thought was this could go into a Run-Off. That might happen although there is one Candidate who could win this outright: Rogers Mayor Steve Womack.

Arkansas 4th Congressional District (Incumbent Democrat U. S. Rep. Mike Ross):

Democratic Primary

No Primary as Ross is running Unopposed

Republican Primary

Glenn Gallas
Beth Anne Rankin

I expect Rankin to win the Primary.


OR-GOV Democratic Primary:

Former Governor John Kitzhaber  vs.  Former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury

I espect Kitzhaber to prevail easily over Bradbury.

OR-GOV Republican Primary:

Former NBA-Professional Chris Dudley  vs.  Businessman Allan Alley

I expect Dudley to prevail over Alley by around 10-15 Points.

OR-SEN Republican Primary:

Law School Professor Jim Huffman  vs.  Realtor Tom Stutzman

I expect the preferred NRSC Candidate Huffman to prevail here.

OR-SEN Democratic Primary:

Wyden will easily dispatch his two Democratic Challengers.

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May 18, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Projections, Updates, Women | | 111 Comments

Daniel…..Rand Paul…Has a good night……BREAKING NEWS: Physician Randall "Rand" Paul" (R-Kentucky) wins Republican Senate Primary

Hello Folks!

We’ve the first BIG Primary Winner of tonight. With just over 30 % of Precincts reported in the Bluegrass State the AP calls the Kentucky Republican Senate Primary for Randall “Rand” Paul (R-KY).

Daniel G.

From the Fix……

Rand Paul, Tea Party score sweeping win in KY-Senate

Ophthalmologist Rand Paul won the Kentucky Senate Republican primary, soundly beating Secretary of State Trey Grayson and scoring a major victory for the nascent tea party movement nationwide.

“I have a message from the tea party,” said Paul at his victory speech. “We’ve come to take our government back.” He added: “this tea party movement is a message to Washington that we are unhappy and we want things done differently.”

May 18, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, Politics, Updates | , , | 6 Comments

Daniel…..Rand Paul…Has a good night……BREAKING NEWS: Physician Randall “Rand” Paul” (R-Kentucky) wins Republican Senate Primary

Hello Folks!

We’ve the first BIG Primary Winner of tonight. With just over 30 % of Precincts reported in the Bluegrass State the AP calls the Kentucky Republican Senate Primary for Randall “Rand” Paul (R-KY).

Daniel G.

From the Fix……

Rand Paul, Tea Party score sweeping win in KY-Senate

Ophthalmologist Rand Paul won the Kentucky Senate Republican primary, soundly beating Secretary of State Trey Grayson and scoring a major victory for the nascent tea party movement nationwide.

“I have a message from the tea party,” said Paul at his victory speech. “We’ve come to take our government back.” He added: “this tea party movement is a message to Washington that we are unhappy and we want things done differently.”

May 18, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, Politics, Updates | , , | 6 Comments

Daniel…..Polling Update: Colorado Senate Caucuses……

PPP Poll…….

CO-SEN Caucuses

Bennet, Romanoff spar over health care

[ Bennet and Romanoff ]

Dems

Bennet 46 %
Romanoff 31 %

GOP

[ Nortan and Buck ]
Norton 31 %
Buck 26 %

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CO_518.pdf

Looks like another RINO (Norton) is in the Crosshairs of the Tea Party. I like that.

Daniel G.

May 18, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, Politics, Polls, Updates, Women | , , | 6 Comments

Some Updates on the Stimulus Bailout…..It is at mid-stride!

Quietly something is going on in the Bailout program America adopted a year ago…..

I often reminf=d my fellow Dog pound members that the media…and thefore the public have short memories…..

I found this piece in MyDD by Jerome Armstrong to remind me about the status of the Stimulus program that Obama signed into law…

While people like TPL here laments the program…..

The fact is…… the program is JUST beginning to reach it’s highpoint...

I have mentioned in posts months ago that the program is set up to infuse the maximum amount of capital into the Economy from now untill the middle of NEXT YEAR…

That is no coincidence since the Democrats will be starting their run for the 2012 Presidential election at about that time….

So the program is quietly running and making sure that the DEmocrats have a ACe to play before the next big election cycle….

The US Economy is quietly being funded for the next year by the government….

Which is ….‘too big to fail’….

Continue reading

May 18, 2010 Posted by | Other Things | , , , | 3 Comments

Rima Fakih……Miss USA photo/Video fuss……..

Big Deal……

The photo’s talked about have been out there for a while…..

Several years (2007 ) ago…..She competed and won a local Stripper pole dance contest…..

An she won the contest…Thank you…..

The Miss USA people last year had its winner’s pose for scantily clad photo’s also…….

Let the Girl go do her reign!…….

…….. From CNN……link……..……

He, he, he…..This whole thing is a headache and media bonanza from the Miss USA contest…again….

There are no innocent female’s out there that are going to walk around in bathing suit and heels in front of a live audience…..

And the contest judges don’t really want innocent girls either……

So they need to live with that….

May 18, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Entertainment, Media, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Updates, Women | , , | 4 Comments

Democrats must go on the road to sell Healthcare…..

While the bill is  a done deal…..

That is just an opener….

The Healthcare Insurance industry is already mounting a fight back on the bill….

The public is divided…

The GOP is just sitting back and letting things fester

Those who will benefit from the bill are happy and content….

Those who will not see anything from the bill are going to not forget the money/government side to it….

As Daniel has said to me many a time Healthcare COULD be a problem for Democrats..

As I have said to Daniel…..

Only if the President and others Democrats let it be……

Faced with the prospect of a Democratic rout in November, the White House last month brought on communications expert Stephanie Cutter, a Capitol Hill veteran who is on her third tour of duty with the administration, to oversee healthcare messaging and at least minimize the political damage from the bill.

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May 18, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Healthcare, Law, Media, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Projections, The Economy, Updates | , , , | 4 Comments

Iran wins another round in it quest for the nuclear bomb…..

As I read thru the weekly events in the Iranian nuclear bomb march saga…..

I am constantly reminded that Iranian’s are not Arabs…

They are Persian’s..

They maintained their own civilization for a long time…..

And as I watch the American despert dance to stop the Iranian’s ….

I just shake my head…..

The Dog understands now that the Iranian’s WILL get a bomb….

That’s a given……

The big announcemenet that Russia and China will go along with the Brazilan and Turkish deal for Iran to give up

HALF…..

……of their nuclear material (what better way to get rid of the extra stuff !)

Is just window dressing…..

The American reaction….

“We have reached agreement on a strong draft with the cooperation of both Russia and China,” Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton told a Senate committee. “We plan to circulate that draft resolution to the entire Security Council today. And let me say, Mr. Chairman, I think this announcement is as convincing an answer to the efforts undertaken in Tehran over the last few days as any we could provide.”

The sanctions agreement Mrs. Clinton announced on Tuesday was reached by the United States, Britain, France, Russia and China — the five permanent, veto-wielding members of the Security Council — plus Germany.

The new treaty with Russia “gives us the credibility to reach agreement as we now have in theUnited Nations with countries that are concerned about the proliferation represented by Iran,” Mrs. Clinton told the Senate committee.

Senator Chris Dodd, Democrat of Connecticut, called news of the agreement a “tremendous step forward” and noted that Congress was working on legislation that would impose American-only sanctions on Iran.

“International sanctions make a lot more sense than unilateral,” Mr. Dodd said. “And I think we all agree with that. But we’re not going to retreat from the unilateral sanctions effort.”

The announcement came just a day after Iran said it would ship roughly half of its nuclear fuel to Turkey, in a bid to assuage concerns about its program. American, European and Russian officials reacted with deep skepticism to that proposal, noting that it would still leave Iran with enough low-enriched uranium to create fuel for one nuclear weapon if it chose to make one.

“There are a number of unanswered questions regarding the announcement coming from Tehran,” Mrs. Clinton told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Mrs. Clinton acknowledged the efforts of Brazilian and Turkish leaders who brokered the uranium agreement with Iran. But she said the six major powers that have joined together to pressure Iran to give up its uranium enrichment program “are proceeding to rally the international community on behalf of a strong sanctions resolution that will, in our view, send an unmistakable message about what is expected from Iran.”

More……..

The Isreali reaction….

The unscheduled inner cabinet meeting, accompanied by an announcement from Netanyahu’s office that ministers were under orders to withhold public comment, reflected Israel’s worries about the efficacy of foreign efforts to negotiate with Iran.

One official, speaking on condition of anonymity following the meeting, said Israel regards the Iranian nuclear deal with Turkey and Brazil as a ruse to fend off international pressure ahead of a new U.N. Security Council resolution on sanctions.

Israel, widely assumed to have its own atomic arsenal, has hinted at military strikes, as a last resort, to deny its most powerful foe the means to make a nuclear bomb. But it faces big tactical challenges as well as Western reluctance to see another regional war.

World powers voiced doubt over whether Iran’s agreement on Monday to ship some low-enriched uranium to Turkey would be enough to address wider concerns about further fuel production.

Iran, which insists its nuclear program is peaceful, said the deal aimed to fend off a fourth round of U.N. Security Council sanctions.

Netanyahu has so far endorsed Security Council diplomacy, while urging U.S. and European efforts to toughen up sanctions.

First word of the compromise bid by Brazil and Turkey, both of which are non-permanent members of the Security Council, drew a mixed response from Israeli officials who spoke to the media before being muzzled by Netanyahu.

“Iran is equipping itself, intent on getting (nuclear) weapons. It is taking steps that are far from being for the sake of Iran’s self-defense, as the president of Brazil would tell it,” Deputy Defense Minister Matan Vilnai said.

“We are watching this, and making decisions accordingly,” he told Israel’s Army Radio.

Trade and Industry Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, a former defense chief, said Israel could only know with time if, with the new deal, Iran was “continuing to toy with the whole world” or was open to placing curbs on its domestic uranium enrichment.

More……..

For the Washington Post view on the story about the US deal……Read here

May 18, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Law, Media, Men, Military, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Projections, Updates | , | 2 Comments

Rep. Souder (Ind. – R ) steps down over affair issue……

Hypocrisy…….

Live by the sword…Die by the sword…..

From Fox News……

Eight-term Indiana Rep. Mark Souder announced his resignation Tuesday after admitting to an affair with a female aide who worked in his district office.

Souder, a Republican, will will step down on Friday. He said in remarks obtained by Fox News that he “sinned against God, my wife and my family by having a mutual relationship with a part-time member of my staff.”

“I wish I could have been a better example,” he said. “In this poisonous environment of Washington, D.C., any personal failing is seized upon, often twisted, for political gain. I am resigning rather than to put my family through that painful, drawn-out process. … We are a committed family but the error is mine and I should bear the responsibility. Not only am I thankful for a loving family but for a loving God.”

Multiple senior House sources indicated that the extent of Souder’s affair with the staffer would have landed him before the House Ethics Committee. Sources told Fox News that the aide, identified as Tracy Jackson, a woman in her mid-40s, would accompany the congressman to events and to record ads at a Christian radio broadcast station.

Elected as a family values conservative as part of the Republican revolution in 1994, Souder survived a tough re-election challenge in 2008 and survived a contested primary two weeks ago.

More……..

May 18, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Family, Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Updates, Women | , , | 4 Comments

The Immigration discussion is framed by age….Young American don't understand their elders…..

[ “I just feel like it’s unfair what the government does to immigrants.” ANDREA BONVECCHIO, 17-year-old U.S.-born daughter of a naturalized citizen. ]

BECAUSE of the nations immigration……

Most young people these days have vastly different takes on the issue…

There are very few grade schools and High Schools that don’t have a huge influx of new non-Anglo students….

As a result of immigration …..ALL across the country….Latinos/Hispanics, Indian, Middle Eastern, Oriental and even Russian students are joining the mix of students….

My wife’s school has children that speak over 15 languages…..

This mix of students have given native american children something their parents don’t have…

Close encounters with different human beings from different backgrounds….

And it is telling in the mindset of those children….

They aren’t afraid on new people and immigration like their parents and other old people are…..

While some of the kids may not hang out with the new arrivals….a lot in fact do….

And this is where the change in cultures meld into one…..groups of different skin toned kids skate boarding, playing basketball at the park, in study groups and yes Martha…even dating…..

Amen…..

‘And the children shall lead them’……

Meaghan Patrick, a junior at New College of Florida, a tiny liberal arts college in Sarasota, says discussing immigration with her older relatives is like “hitting your head against a brick wall.”

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May 18, 2010 Posted by | Counterpoints, Education, Family, Government, Law, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Projections, Travel, Updates, Women | , | 1 Comment