commentary on Politics and a little bit of everything else

Is Rand Paul 25% ahead in the Kentucky Senate race…or 1%?

Nate Silver over @ FiveThirtyEight. has an interesting piece on the Rand Paul lead in the new Rasmussen poll…….

Unless you’ve been asleep for the past 24 hours……

You know that Rand Paul has run into a buzzsaw over his comments about the 1964 Civil Rights Bill……

Silver questions the Rasmussen 25% lead right off the bat…then correctly questions whether Paul is gonna have those numbers after the last 24 hours anyways…..

Pollster’s combined average has Paul ahead only by 1%…..

What’s the story here?

From Silver…….

I don’t quite know what to make of the new Rasmussen poll showing Rand Paul 25 (!) points ahead of fellow primary winner Jack Conway in Kentucky.

Paul has had a bad 24 hours in the Beltway media environment. Do I think that has any relevance whatsoever for Kentucky, a state which is culturally about as far removed from the Beltway as you can get? No, not really; it may even be a contrarian indicator. Nor is it unusual to see candidates get bounces after primary victories, although they often prove to be fleeting.

But. Rasmussen had shown a particularly large house effect in this race. Whereas the Pollster.com trendline of all non-Rasmussen polls had shown Paul ahead by just 1 point, Rasmussen’s trendline had him up by 15, even prior to this poll being released.

There’s More…

May 20, 2010 - Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Law, Media, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates | , , ,


  1. You never know how people are going to react

    Remember the HUGE lead Allen held over Webb only to lose his seat

    My understanding Paul main POINT was he did not think business should face CRIMINAL charges for not allowing certain individuals in THEIR STORE

    you know YOU gotta watch out for customers that STEAL regardless of skin pigmentation

    BUUUUT people do STOP stealing

    as I child I admit I stole stickers

    now the ACT of stealing is BENEATH me

    Comment by Timothy Leal | May 20, 2010 | Reply

  2. Here is the complete interview


    Comment by Timothy Leal | May 21, 2010 | Reply

    • Thanks…..

      Comment by jamesb101 | May 21, 2010 | Reply

  3. Paul’s the gift that keeps on giving–for Democrats! Now he thinks the White House criticism of BP’s handling of the devastating oil spill is “un-American”.

    I guess the “American” thing to do would be to stay silent and allow corporations–even foreign ones– to screw us all and ruin our ecology.

    What a nut!

    Comment by Scott P | May 21, 2010 | Reply

    • I agree….I’ll do a post on that later……

      Comment by jamesb101 | May 21, 2010 | Reply

  4. What is this I hear about the spill being the fault of environmentalists

    Did Eco-terrorist cause this spill in an act of vandalism to protest offshore drilling

    Comment by Timothy Leal | May 21, 2010 | Reply

  5. […] Is Rand Paul 25% ahead in the Kentucky Senate race…or 1 … […]

    Pingback by Tea party strength put to test with Rand Paul in Republican Kentucky Senate race | Tea | May 25, 2010 | Reply

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