commentary on Politics and a little bit of everything else

Nate Silver goes after Rasmussen Polling again…..

Man…Nate goes after Rasmussen Polling again!

…Like every two months …This happens……These two either don’t like each other….

……..Or have a secret pack to promote each other with bad recviews…..He, he, he

Have to be briefer than I’d like here, but I’m in the midst of putting together a new set of pollster ratings. In addition to populating the database with 2008 General Election results (as well as contests held in 2009 and 2010), I’m also doing a fair amount of backfilling to try to make the database, which goes back to 2000, more comprehensive. Previously, for instance, we did not have Rasmussen’s polling in place for 2000, which can be hard to come by. But thanks to the magic of The Internet (as well as a tip from Chris Bowers) I was able to track it down.

Here are the results of statewide polling in the 2000 Presidential Election. Although the pollster ratings will eventually involve some fancier math, the numbers you see below are as simple as it gets: I’ve simply looked at the average error of the last poll issued by each pollster in each state in terms of projecting the margin between Bush and Gore. (A cut-off is established 21 days prior to the election.)

While 2000 was generally a fairly rough year for pollsters, who had to deal with an unenthusiastic electorate, some third-party challengers, and some late-breaking developments like Bush’s DUI charge, Rasmussen was the worst of the lot, missing by an average of 5.7 points. They also called 7 states wrong.** Some of this was the result of bias, as they were 3.5 points too high on Bush’s margin in the states they surveyed, on average.

There’s More…

Note….Why does Rasmussen always put the GOP person on top in the poll results?

May 27, 2010 - Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates | , , , ,

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