commentary on Politics and a little bit of everything else

Nate Silver on Southern Primary Polls…..His Take……Those polls are often more than 9 Points off for Democrats….

Nate Silver of FiveTirtyEight finds in his research that Primary polls are notoriously off in their results….

Furthermore he reports that Southern Democrats tend to DO BETTER than most pollsters predict in their races….

Are we going to see some surprises and upsets in the upcoming Southern Primaries?

As we transition from a more generalist mode to focus more specifically on this November’s midterms, I’ve got a lot of of R&D to do. I’m generating a new set of pollster ratings, for instance, and building rigorous forecasting models for both the House and for gubernatorial elections, neither of which we had in place in 2008. These are time-consuming projects, and sometimes might eat into my ability to do day-to-day blogging. But trust me on this one — your patience will be rewarded, and we’ll have some very cool new initiatives to unveil soon.

One nice thing about doing this research, moreover, is that I’m periodically able to discover things that have more immediate relevance. For instance, we have a couple of important Southern coming primaries coming up: Alabama votes tomorrow, and there are key primaries in Arkansas and South Carolina the following week. How much faith should we put in the polls of these races?

The answer is not very much, especially in the case of Democrats. The chart below lists the average error in polls conducted of party primaries from 2000 to the present day, with the results broken down by party and region.**



May 31, 2010 - Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates, Women | , ,

No comments yet.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: