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Nate Silver rates Pollsters….

The Pollster ‘Wizard’ has released his rated list of polling outfits at last!

Let’s see…… ( Pollster’s w/ at least 10 polls )

Field Poll comes in first……

Rasmussen is 15th……

Daniel’s favorite Mason-Dixon is 9th……

Well poll jockies ….check for your favorite pollster and see how they rate from the Nate Silver, who just made it to the promised land….The New York Times by way of his own Blog site!

Pollster Ratings v4.0: Results

by Nate Silver @ 6:13 PM Share This Content

For a complete methodological discussion, see here. I’m just going to reiterate just a few very high-level bullet points.

— These ratings pertain to just one particular type of poll: those which attempt to forecast election outcomes, and do so in the public domain.

— These ratings reflect polling for President (general and primary elections), U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and gubernatorial races since 1998. More recent cycles are weighted more heavily. This is a truly massive amount of data: roughly 4,700 polls.

— The variable called rawscore is the most direct measure of a pollster’s track record. However, it is much inferior to PIE — or Pollster-Introduced Error — for evaluating the effectiveness of different pollsters on a going-forward basis. Because polling involves a great deal of luck in the near-term,rawscores must be substantially regressed toward the mean. However, different types of pollsters are regressed to different means. In particular, pollsters that have made a commitment to transparency and disclosure have been shown to have superior results over the long-run. The way we measure this is whether the pollster was a member of either the NCPP or the AAPOR Transparency Initiative as of 6/1/10.

— PIE is expressed as a positive number and reflects the amount of error that a pollster introduces above and beyond that which is unavoidable due to things like sampling variance. The lower a firm’s PIE the better.

The list below provides ratings for all firms with a minimum of 10 polls. A complete list of ratings (including for firms with fewer than 10 polls) follows it below the fold.

Ratings for firms with at least 10 polls Continue reading

June 6, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Entertainment, Government, Media, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Updates | , | 1 Comment

The Directory of Oligarchs In The City Of New York……From Oligrach Kings…..

I hope that I have gone at least some of the way to convincing that there is, at the heart of American politics, a hard core of oligarchic families who are significantly over represented in the political system.

We should note that at the start of the 107th Congress, in 2000, 77 of the 535 members were relatives of Senators, Representatives, Governors, Judges, State Legislators or Local Officials.  That is around 14.39%!  In a county so ostentatiously “democratic” as the USA claims to be, it looks to this outsider at least, as unhealthy and is curiously almost exactly the same percentage that the oligarchy in late Republican Rome represented.

But even less is spoken of the relationship between those politicians and the businessmen that fund them, and pay for their campaigns and who in turn benefit from Government contracts and funding streams.

We have seen how The United Fruit Company had connections that stretched from the White House and the great offices of Secretaries of State, to the CIA and to the military establishment and led to it controlling entire countries.  But this might just be a one-off, a rogue operation used by a government for geo-political considerations.  Nothing like this would actually happen back home would it?

Well, we might feel differently if we saw the political and financial interconnections of our favourite families.

Rockefeller we have already met here and here.  Scions of “Standard Oil” they have been inter-connected with politics and finance for generations. In the table at the close of the post we should remember William is the brother of John D Rockefeller Sen. and his son, Percy, married the sister of Marcellus Hartley Dodge, the boss of Remington Arms and Union Metallic Cartridge co.

The Bushes too, from papa Bush’s father Senator Prescott Bush and grand-pappy George Herbert Walker (yes that is where the GHW and the Dubya come from) were financiers first, and only at a short second, politicians.  A small tree might assist here.  It’s a very abridged one, and I will deal with the more up to date connections of Neil Bush later.  (That one deserves its very own post!


June 6, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Family, Government, Media, Men, Politics, Updates | , , , , , , | 2 Comments

The cap is catching about half the oil coming out of th Gulf Oil well pipe…

That IS Progress…


But nevertheless Progress….

The containment cap that’s sucking some of the oil pouring into the Gulf of Mexico is making slow but measurable progress.

The lid trapped about 441,000 gallons of oil Saturday, BP spokesman Mark Proegler said Sunday, up from about 250,000 gallons of oil Friday.

That’s still only a little more than half of the higher estimates of oil leaking each day from the well that began gushing oil into the water when a BP rig exploded April 20. It’s also unclear just how much is still escaping.

An estimated 500,000 to 1 million gallons of crude is believed to be leaking daily. BP chief executive Tony Hayward told the BBC on Sunday that the cap is likely to capture “the majority, probably the vast majority” of the oil gushing from the well.

Yet Coast Guard Admiral Thad Allen, head of the federal oil spill relief efforts, tempered that enthusiastic outlook.

“We’re making the right progress,” he said Sunday in an interview aired on CNN‘s “State of the Union.” But he added, “I don’t think anybody should be pleased as long as there’s oil in the water … So I would say progress has been made but nobody should be pleased until a relief well is done.”

The next step is for engineers at BP to close vents on the cap that were deliberately allowing streams of oil to escape the system so water could not get inside.

BP plans to use an additional set of hoses and pipes to increase the amount of oil being trapped, but the ultimate solution remains a relief well that should be finished by August.


June 6, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Ecology, Government, Health, Media, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Projections, Updates | , | 5 Comments

Mariah Carey IS Pregnant……..


The 40 year old Diva is expecting her first child with husband Nick Cannon……

The issue became public when she had to back out an upcoming movie for ‘personal health reasons’…..

Showing off an extra-curvy figure, mom-to-beMariah Carey hit the stage in Fayetteville, Ark. on Friday to sing for Wal-Mart shareholders. It’s the first time the diva has stepped out in public since a pal confirmed to Us that Carey is expecting.

Although Carey has yet to make a public announcement, she is “in the early stage of pregnancy,” waiting until after the first trimester to share the big news, the pal says in the new Us Weekly.

Even her husband of two years Nick Cannonaccidentally gushed about the pregnancy when chatting with fans in Malibu May 30. “Her bump is bigger. You can almost see it now…I’m very excited!”

Cannon, 29, later retreated a bit. “If & when my wife is ready to make ANY announcements about private matters she will do it personally,” he wrote on Twitter Wednesday night.


June 6, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Entertainment, Family, Health, Media, Movies, Music, PoliticalDog Calls, Updates, Women | , , | Leave a comment

Israel is a tug a war on investigation of Gaza re-suppy blockade and actions….

The Israeli’s are holding out against pressure for an International investigation…

Preferring an Israeli based look at the issue and actions…

Israeli officials said Sunday they would reject U.N. pressure to establish an international commission to investigate last week’s deadly raid of a Gaza-bound aid flotilla.

Instead, leaders are leaning toward an Israeli-led inquiry that might include international observers or participation, officials said.

Israel’s ambassador to the U.S., Michael Oren, told “Fox News Sunday” that Israel was “rejecting an international commission,” as proposed over the weekend by U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.

Ban suggested a panel headed by former New Zealand Prime Minister Geoffrey Palmer with representatives from the U.S., Israel and Turkey. More than half of the flotilla’s activists were from Turkey, including eight of those killed when Israel raided the ship, to prevent it from breaking its three-year blockade of the Gaza Strip.

Israel has rarely submitted voluntarily to United Nations review, saying its enemies dominate the organization and that U.N. probes are one-sided. Israel was furious over a U.N. Human Rights Council panel investigating its Gaza Strip offensive in 2008-09 and refused to cooperate with it. The so-called Goldstone Commission led by a respected South African jurist accused Israel and Hamas of committing war crimes during Israel’s 22-day assault in 2008-2009.

“We’ve had experience with the U.N. and kangaroo courts,” said an Israeli government official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

While this political…The Israeli’s WILL have to have some sort look/see into the process and initiation of the raid on the first boat trying to bring supplies to Gaza that was met by a military special op raid that resulted in 9 deaths  and involved a ship that had no weapons on board. The ship was a turkish registered ship , with people on board from that country……

Turkey has been a good ally of Israeli in the past and is extremely pissed with these actions…..


June 6, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Media, Military, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Travel, Updates | | Leave a comment

The Dog thinks Haley will win the South Carolina Governor GOP Primary…..But can she avoid a run-off?

Nikki Haley

Publicity is publicity….

Good or bad….

And it is free advertising for most cash strapped politicians…..

Even if they are Tea Partiers with Sarah Palin endorsements….

Nikki Haley  down in South Carolina is gonna get a boost from people in her state making remarks about her skin color, her supposed religion and her supposed sex life……

Good for her…

South Carolina state Rep. Nikki Haley shows no sign of suffering any damage from allegations that she has had extramarital affairs, with a new poll showing she continues to hold a 20 point lead in her bid for the GOP gubernatorial nomination. A majority of voters say they don’t believe the accusations of infidelity.

Going into Tuesday’s primary, Haley runs ahead of the Republican field with 43 percent followed by Rep. Gresham Barrett at 23 percent, Attorney General Henry McMaster at 16 percent, and Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer at 12 percent, with 7 percent undecided, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted June 5-6.

Haley has gained four points in her level of support since PPP’s poll two weeks ago when she held a similar advantage over her nearest rival.

She is seen favorably by 58 percent of likely voters and unfavorably by 23 percent, with 19 percent undecided. The 35 point spread in her favor is about the same as it was in the last poll.

Last week, a state lobbyist who had resigned from Bauer’s campaign claimed he had a tryst with Haley in 2008. It was the second such allegation, following one by a former aide to Gov. Mark Sanford who said he had physical relations with Haley in 2007. Haley vigorously denied both accusations.

Fifty-four percent of voters do not believe she has had extramarital affairs while 13 percent do, with 33 percent undecided.

“Nikki Haley’s in good shape,” said PPP’s Dean Debnam. “Her campaign has deflected the allegations against her well and so far she hasn’t suffered any political damage in the wake of them.”

The question for Haley is whether she can get to the 50 percent she needs to avoid a runoff. If there is one, Barrett appears to be the candidate with the second place momentum, picking up 7 points of support since the last poll.


June 6, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Projections, Religion, Updates, Women | , , , | 16 Comments

Who will be affected by the Wall Street Financial Reform Bill?

Actually……as this piece points out…..

Most of the business and people affected by the upcoming bill ( and its formation of a new Consumer-Finance Regulator ) before the Senate and House conference committee’s are not on Wall Street at all……

They are Retailers…..

Auto Dealers…….

The Big Banks….

State Attorney General’s…..

The Derivatives Traders……

These people and their lobbyists will be working at a final shoot at the rules makers before they hash out the different versions of the bills in the House and Senate …and vote on a finished version for the President to sign and enact…..

It’s not just bankers.

Auto dealers, attorneys general and derivatives traders are among those sitting anxiously as Congress enters the final stretch of its financial-regulation revamp. The two bills approved by lawmakers contain numerous differences, and negotiations to hammer out a compromise will begin in earnest this week. All told, they’ll represent the biggest change to the U.S.’s system of financial oversight in 80 years.

Reflecting the all-encompassing nature of the legislation, some of the widest gaps affect people far from Wall Street. Auto dealers are lobbying hard to be excluded from oversight by a proposed consumer-finance regulator. Retailers want relief from what they say are punitive fees charged by credit-card companies. Non-financial companies are fighting for more flexibility in using derivatives.

Here’s a look at some of the differences that have to be hammered out and those most likely to be affected by the outcome:

The Retailer

Retailers want a provision currently only in the Senate bill that would lift constraints imposed by credit-card networks. They want to be able to offer discounts on cheaper forms of payment, or impose a minimum charge for card payments. Networks currently charge retailers a fixed fee and 1.5% to 2% of the purchase price on credit-card transactions. Debit cards generally cost slightly less.


June 6, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Law, Media, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, The Economy, Updates | , , , | 2 Comments

Charlie Rangel is still loved in Harlem…….

While he has lost the Ways and Means Chair…..and suffered countess humiliations from mistakes, forgotten and misdirected financial transactions……

But he is still looked at fondly in his home district in New York’s Harlem….

A District that has been almost entirely black and  has begun to turn with gentrification …..

Thus bringing in new voters….. that don’t know their House Rep who has served there  for 40 YEARS……

Rangel , A former Army solider, decorated for valor under fire, is  79…….is up for November’s fight……..

And so is his base…..

The 40-year Congressional career of Representative Charles B. Rangelseemed to come apart over the last year and a half, amid an unrelenting swirl of accusations that he dodged taxes, hoarded rent-stabilized apartments and accepted corporate-sponsored junkets to the Caribbean

Suddenly, the genial, gravelly voiced prince of Harlem became a symbol of malfeasance and self-dealing Washington insiderism. Republicans talked of building their midterm election strategy around him. Democrats returned his campaign contributions. And Mr. Rangel, 79, relinquished his prized possession: the chairmanship of the powerful Ways and Means Committee.

But back in his Congressional district, where much of politics is experienced in a personal way, a very different attitude has emerged: a fierce determination that Mr. Rangel, whatever his transgressions, should end his public life on his own terms and be given one last term.

That sentiment is frustrating his Democratic challengers and propelling Mr. Rangel, who formally announced his candidacy on Sunday, into a surprisingly strong position just months after predictions of his demise.

“When it’s time for him to go, he will make that decision,” said Jackie Rowe Adams, 62, a Parks Department employee and union local leader who grew up in Harlem. “He’ll leave gracefully.”

“That time,” she said, “is not now.”



Rangel is back at it again….

This time comparing Obama to Cheney on Iraq.……

Oh, I forgot…He backed Hillary over Obama and hasn’t forgotten….

June 6, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Media, Men, Military, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Updates | , , | 1 Comment

Bill White fights his past membership in a New York based anti-gun group….

FILE - In this April 30, 2010 file photo, Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate Bill White responds to a reporters question following a news conference in Grand Prairie, Texas. The former Houston mayor heads into the 2010 governor's race playing defense on a powerful political issue. The biggest liability for White is his past membership in a New York-based gun control group. White says he resigned after finding its positions too restrictive, but his participation in Mayors Against Illegal Guns riled up those who live to preserve Texas' pro-gun culture. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez, File)

Houston Mayor Bill White is running against a Governor that made headlines shooting a coyote once while taking a run…..

In Texas belonging to a anti-gun group is certainly gonna cost you votes…..

As Al Gore….

He was the last Democrat to embrace that policy….

And it hurt him bad in the South and Western states..

So bad that NO….Nationa Democrat has touched the issue since…..

Look at Bill White’s problem with voters on the issue….

You can see why……

But this is Texas, where incumbent Rick Perry recently shot a coyote while out jogging and enjoys hunting deer with a bow and arrow. The love of weaponry is so ingrained in state culture that having a legal permit to carry a handgun will get you waved through the Texas Capitol security lines without going through a magnetometer.

Against that backdrop, the former Houston mayor heads into the 2010 governor’s race playing defense on a powerful political issue. The biggest liability for White is his past membership in a New York-based gun control group. White says he resigned after finding its positions too restrictive, but his participation in Mayors Against Illegal Guns riled up those who live to preserve Texas’ pro-gun culture.

“Anywhere in the civilized world you would be able to make the argument that everybody should be able to be against illegal guns. But we’re not in the civilized word. We’re in Texas,” said Southern Methodist University political scientist Cal Jillson.

White only needs to look a few years back to find candidates who have lost campaigns over the issue. The last Democrat who was elected governor, Ann Richards, lost her re-election bid in 1994 in part after opposing concealed handgun legislation and vetoingreferendum on it.

George W. Bush signed the bill into law in his first year after defeating her to become governor

There is really no such thing as a moderate position on guns that’s going to help in Texas,” said Jim Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin.

As mayor of Houston, White joined Mayors Against Illegal Guns, a group that supports individual gun rights, but wants more controls on gun show sales, restrictions on the reach of conceal-and-carry laws and more oversight of federal gun purchase records.

White said he joined the gun-control group in 2006 at the urging of its founder, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg. That year, Houston’s crime rate hit a 12-year high…….


June 6, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Counterpoints, Crime, Government, Law, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Updates | , , , , , | 3 Comments

'Spike TV'…Sandra Bullock most popular with US Troops……

Actress Sandra Bullock receives the Troops Choice Award onstage during Spike TV's 4th Annual "Guys Choice Awards" held at Sony Studios on June 5, 2010 in Los Angeles, California.

[ Actress Sandra Bullock receives the Troops Choice Award onstage during Spike TV’s 4th Annual “Guys Choice Awards” held at Sony Studios on June 5, 2010 in Los Angeles, California. ]
The 45 year old, soon to be divorced actress, and new mother, has something to be proud of and smile….

A rebounding Sandra Bullock made a surprise appearance at Spike TV‘s “Guys Choice” event Saturday night.

Spike says the stunner received a standing ovation at Sony Pictures Studios in Culver CityCalif., when she accepted the “Troops Choice” Award for Entertainer of The Year.

The honor was voted on by members of the military and presented to Bullock by Robert Downey Jr..

It was the first public appearance by the 45-year-old actress since she split from cheating hubby Jesse James.

The breakup came shortly after Bullock won the Best Actress Oscar for her role in “The Blind Side” earlier this year


June 6, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Entertainment, Family, Government, Media, Men, Military, Movies, Updates, Women | , , , , | 1 Comment