Jamesb101.com

commentary on Politics and a little bit of everything else

Daniel…..Research 2000 parts ways with DailyKos…..

Hello Folks!

Man, I’m glad this has happened. KOS parted ways with his Polling Company Research 2000.

Fewer work for me as I don’t have to post KOS Polls in my Polling Summaries anymore.

Read the Kos Write-Up:
I have decided to part ways with our current pollster, and will be looking for a new polling partner to finish out this election cycle. The decision was made, in part, on the results of Nate Silver’s new pollster rankings.

Research 2000’s past results aren’t actually as bad as people will try and make them out to be. In fact, if there’s one thing that’s striking about the chart, is how closely clumped together those pollsters actually are. The difference in accuracy between the best and worst pollsters (omitting Zogby’s genuinely crappy internet poll) isn’t very big. As Nate told me via email as he walked me through the results:

The absolute difference in the pollster ratings is not very great. Most of the time, there is no difference at all.

And while many will focus on R2K’s misses in Alabama and Arkansas, fact is they nailed several others, like the Hawaii special, the Nevada primaries, NY-23, etc. Every pollster has hits and misses, and R2K was no different. But in an industry measured in percentages, fact is they underperformed their peers.

I believe in accountability, in accuracy, and in making sure we provide the absolute best information not just to this wonderful community, but also to the outside world. As such, Daily Kos will be on polling hiatus the next several months as we evaluate our options and decide how to best proceed.

Daniel G.

Nate got’m …Huh?

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June 9, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Politics, Polls, Updates | , , , | 1 Comment

Daniel…..Polling Summaries including Tuesday, June 8th, and Wednesday, June 9th…….

Hello Folks and Good Afternoon!

Here is my Polling Summary for Tuesday & Wednesday:

North Carolina Senate:

Burr (R)  50 %  ,  Marshall (D)  36 %  (Rasmussen Reports Survey)
Burr (R)  47 %  ,  Cunningham (D)  35 %  (Rasmussen Reports Survey)

North Carolina Senate:

Burr (R)  46 %  ,  Marshall (D)  39 %  (Public Policy Polling Survey)
Burr (R)  46 %  ,  Cunningham (D)  35 %  (Public Policy Polling Survey)

Colorado Senate:

Norton (R)  46 %  ,  Bennet (D)  40 %  (Rasmussen Reports Survey)
Norton (R)  43 %  ,  Romanoff (D)  42 %  (Rasmussen Reports Survey)
Buck (R)  46 %  ,  Bennet (D)  41 %  (Rasmussen Reports Survey)
Buck (R)  45 %  ,  Romanoff (D)  39 %  (Rasmussen Reports Survey)

My Republican Followers: I’m afraid to say this. Jane Norton (R-CO) might be Sue Lowden (R-NV) Part Deux

Illinois Senate:

Kirk (R)  42 %  ,  Giannoulias (D)  39 %  (Rasmussen Reports Survey)

Florida Senate:

Crist (I)  37 %  ,  Rubio (R)  37 %  ,  Meek (D)  15 %  (Rasmussen Reports Survey)
Crist (I)  41 %  ,  Rubio (R)  37 %  ,  Greene (D)  13 %  (Rasmussen Reports Survey)

Note: Looking at Meek’s bad Poll Numbers I’m seriously starting to wonder if he EVEN makes it out of the Primary. Businessman Jeff Greene (D-FL) isn’t a lightweight at all.

Florida Governor:

McCollum (R)  40 %  ,  Sink (D)  38 %  (Rasmussen Reports Survey)
Scott (R)  45 %  ,  Sink (D)  40 %  (Rasmussen Reports Survey)

Florida Senate:

Crist (I)  37 %  ,  Rubio (R)  33 %  ,  Meek (D)  17 %  (Quinnipiac University)
Crist (I)  40 %  ,  Rubio (R)  33 %  ,  Greene (D)  14 %  (Quinnipiac University)

Florida Governor:

McCollum (R)  42 %  ,  Sink (D)  34 %  (Quinnipiac University)
Scott (R)  42 %  ,  Sink (D)  32 %  (Quinnipiac University)
McCollum (R)  33 %  ,  Sink  (D)  25 %  ,  Chiles (I)  19 %  (Quinnipiac University)
Scott (R)  35 %  ,  Sink  (D)  26 %  ,  Chiles (I)  13 %  (Quinnipiac University)

Daniel G.

June 9, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates, Women | , , | 3 Comments

DSD…..On the California vote…..

Orly Taitz, a relentless pursuer of the Not Born Here theory, won only a quarter of the California GOP primary vote for Sec. of State. But that’s still over a third of a million of California’s more politically-conscious citizens. GOP candidates and managers must be breathing deeps sighs of relief.

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/sec/59.htm

California voters approved the cockamamie open primary (which could send two Democrats or two Republicans to face each other in November 2012) at the same time they kept the ban on public financing of elections. I put down at least part of this madness to a Republican 2010 primary that was more significant than the Democratic one, in the relative absence of high-profile vote-catching ballot measures.

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/props/59.htm

By 7 to 1, voters did approve a non-controversial measure that exempts the added value of seismic retrofitting (quake-proofing) of an existing building from property tax revaluations until it’s sold.

June 9, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Ecology, Government, Media, Other Things, Politics, Updates | , | Leave a comment

Rasmussen……. Florida Senate…Crist 37%…..Rubio 37%….Meek 15%?

Wow……Meek is out and gone…

But this isn’t good news for Rubio……

Daniel should have more later…..

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Sunshine State finds Rubio and Crist each earning 37% of the vote, while Democratic hopeful Kendrick Meek trails with 15% support. Eleven percent (11%) are undecided.


June 9, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Updates | , | 2 Comments

Daily Manila on the Alvin Greene win in South Carolina…….

Greene never heard of me either.

June 9, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Entertainment, Government, Manila @ PoliticalDog, Media, Men, Political Satire, Politics, Updates | , | Leave a comment

CD's Predictions for California in November……

James B, my California 2010 statewide predictions:
United States Senator-GOP GAIN, the GOP will finally get their wish and take Boxer into retirement.

Governor-Brown will win his 5th statewide election and head back to the governor’s mansion. DEM GAIN.

Lieutenant Governor-Maldonado will easily win a full four-year term over Newsome, who is too LIBERAL for moderate and Indy voters and plus his record as SF Mayor will be picked apart. GOP HOLD

Secretary of State-DEM HOLD. Bowen wins re-election easily.

State Treasurer-DEM HOLD.

State Insurance Commissioner-DEM GAIN.

State Attorney General-TOSSUP.

June 9, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, CD @ PolitcalDog, Media, Politics, Projections, Updates | , | Leave a comment

CD’s Predictions for California in November……

James B, my California 2010 statewide predictions:
United States Senator-GOP GAIN, the GOP will finally get their wish and take Boxer into retirement.

Governor-Brown will win his 5th statewide election and head back to the governor’s mansion. DEM GAIN.

Lieutenant Governor-Maldonado will easily win a full four-year term over Newsome, who is too LIBERAL for moderate and Indy voters and plus his record as SF Mayor will be picked apart. GOP HOLD

Secretary of State-DEM HOLD. Bowen wins re-election easily.

State Treasurer-DEM HOLD.

State Insurance Commissioner-DEM GAIN.

State Attorney General-TOSSUP.

June 9, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, CD @ PolitcalDog, Media, Politics, Projections, Updates | , | Leave a comment

The White House trys to wring more money out of BP on claims…..

Under media pressure on the BP adherence to paying no more than the standard amount for claims for oil related loses….

Thad Allen has voiced concern for how and how much BP is paying out on claims…..

Allen and the White House can’t legally  tell BP what to spend as long as the company follows it’s published guidelines which I’m sure are not written for something this catastrophic….

As I have indicated before….

While the public pressure is out there….

The government is actually just a bystander on this whole affair……

BP (  a Private Company ) IS running the show…..

In addition, this cry for transparency….. is in fact media driven…..

At their own risk mind you…

BP does not have to tell the press a thing…

The oil isn’t owned by the government, neither was the equipment drawing it out of the earth….

You will notice….

Allen does the presser’s……

The company  does have to follow US rules and regulations on HOW to manage that operation…

And they are going to pay dearly for any transgressions….

And money spend by the government to manage and clean up the spill….


Adm. Thad Allen, the national incident commander in charge of the response to the spill, wrote BP CEO Tony Hayward to request a wide swath of information on how the oil company has dealt with claims against it.

“We need complete, ongoing transparency into BP’s claims process, including detailed information on how claims are being evaluated, how payment amounts are being calculated and how quickly claims are being processed,” Allen wrote in a letter on Tuesday that was released Wednesday morning by the White House.

“To that end, I am directing that you provide the National Incident Command (NIC) and appropriate representatives of the state governments with information we need to meet our responsibilities to our citizens.”

Allen asked Hayward to allow access to information as quickly as possible on how the company is processing claims online, as well as information on BP’s plans to pay out claims going forward.

The Coast Guard admiral’s letter comes against a backdrop in which President Barack Obama has warned BP against “nickel-and-diming” Gulf Coast residents whose livelihoods have been adversely affected by the oil spill.

More….

June 9, 2010 Posted by | Boats, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Health, Law, Media, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, The Economy, Travel, Updates | , , , , | 1 Comment

Sarah Palin endorsements do well……

[ Haley and Palin ]

No matter what anyone says….

She IS a media star…

Her endorsements seem to do well…..


Sarah Palin batted three for four (with an asterisk) in primary endorsements Tuesday, and though Cecile Bledsoe’s loss in Arkansas’ 3rd District dropped her 2010 record in congressional matchups to 5-4, she’s perfect so far in gubernatorial races.

If Nikki Haley (the asterisk) wins the June 22 runoff in South Carolina’s GOP race for governor, that would further validate Palin’s endorsement power. The former Alaska governor and 2008 vice presidential candidate came out for Haley personally in mid-May at a campaign rally, instead of merely tweeting or writing a Facebook note, as she’s done for other candidates.

And when two GOP operatives came forward to say they had flings with Haley, Palin stuck with her candidate. Last week, voters received robocalls from Palin urging their support for Haley, whom she’d also defended on Twitter and Facebook.

In two other races, Palin would be wise to help her preferences mend fences with supporters of the more conservative candidates they defeated Tuesday.

In California, Palin endorsed Carly Fiorina early in Mayand made robocalls on the candidate’s behalf in recent days. After winning Tuesday, Fiorina now takes on Sen. Barbara Boxer in what should be an epic battle given Boxer’s 28 years in Congress and the former Hewlett-Packard chief executive’s deep pockets. Will Fiorina call on Palin for help in the general election? The former governor might be a hit with voters in more conservative parts of the state, but she could be a liability with independents.

More…..

June 9, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Government, Media, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Projections, Updates, Women | | 4 Comments

Is there a Social Security fight brewing?

The Washington Post has piece on the President’s new deficit commission….

The piece asks if a new assault on the nation’s Social Security system isn’t being hatched…..

A while back I did a post on the system…..

The piece basically reported that our Social Security system is sound until at least 2037…..

And that it will rest on the economy to refund it…

If the economy picks up….

The system does better…

But the system IS HUGE….

And if the economy in the next ten years doesn’t grown by a good amount…..

There WILL be serious trouble with its funding……

The average check of $1,168.60 is a mainstay for a lot of American’s……

But there is always a temptation to talk about tinkering with the giant fund…..

And always HUGE political pressure to leave it alone…….

I’m betting on the latter…

Again……

One of the oddest Web posts making the rounds in Washington is a series of blurry videos from Capitol Hillshowing people coming and going from a closed-door meeting of President Obama‘s new deficit commission.

The mundane scenes have a sinister cast for activists who say the commission is at work on a secret plan to gut Social Security. Nancy Altman, whose group, Social Security Works, shot the footage, says the threat to the nation’s primary social safety net is greater now than at any time in the program’s 75-year history.

“This is going to affect every single American if they reach agreement,” she said. “People need to know what’s going on.”

The heated rhetoric is an ominous sign for Obama’s deficit-fighting task force, which is charged with developing abipartisan plan to stabilize the soaring national debt. Adjusting Social Security benefits is a likely point of consensus, commission members say. Now, some of the same activists who helped derail a 2005 GOP plan to restructure the program are threatening to rally the public against any proposal to cut benefits.

Social Security has been self-supporting since 1935, with taxes paid by current workers financing benefits for current retirees. But people today retire earlier, live longer and have fewer children. As result, the number of workers for each retiree is expected to fall from about three to one now to two to one by 2050. Sometime in the next few years, taxes will no longer cover benefits.

The program’s defenders argue that there is no crisis: If Treasury would repay billions of dollars in surplus Social Security taxes borrowed over the years, the program could pay full benefits through 2037. But many budget experts question whether supporting the existing benefit structure should be a cash-strapped nation’s first priority.

“There is a level of intellectual consensus among everyone except the groups that are upset right now that things need to be re-examined,” said David John, a retirement expert at the conservative Heritage Foundation.

At Social Security Works, Altman, a former tax lawyer who taught at Harvard University and assisted former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan on a 1982 commission credited with temporarily restoring Social Security’s solvency, argues that there are better options than cutting benefits. Raising the income cap for Social Security taxes or imposing a tax on Wall Street transactions, she said, would raise enough to keep the program solvent for years.

“This is not a crackpot side of the debate,” Altman said, citing polls showing broad public opposition to benefits cuts, even among conservatives. “My goal is not to further undercut people’s confidence in Washington. But I don’t feel like I can just be quiet when they are about to do what I feel is a real disservice to the American people.”

More…..

June 9, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Law, Media, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Taxes, The Economy, Updates | , , | Leave a comment