commentary on Politics and a little bit of everything else

Nate Silver @ FiveThirtEight gets beat up again on his Pollster ratings…….Again….

I guess this goes back to tonight’s Apple post…

Once you get past a certain size everyone wants to know what type of underwear you have on….

Teagan Goddard of CQPolitics  uses Marc Blumenthal to  go after Nate Silver on transparency again…..

He does make one good point…..

Silver’s posts DO mean something these days……

From Politicalwire……

Mark Blumenthal looks at the transparency issues I raised with Nate Silver’s pollster scorecard and agrees it’s lacking in both the “database used to created to rate pollster accuracy and in regards to the details of the statistical models used to generate the ratings.”

Notes Blumenthal: “Many in the worlds of journalism and polling are taking these ratings very seriously. They have already played a major role in getting one pollster fired. Soon these ratings will appear under the imprimatur of the New York Times. So with due respect, these ratings deserve a higher degree of transparency than FiveThirtyEight’s typical work.”

In defending himself, Nate pointed to a 4,800 word explanation of his methodology and compared it to baseball, saying, “I’m sure that the first newspaper which printed a summary of batting averages took a lot of heat for it too.”

Perhaps, but anyone who has learned basic arithmetic can understand a batting average. Every baseball fan understands what it means and how it was calculated. But as Blumenthal clearly points out, even the experts in statistical modeling and polling can’t understand or assess what Nate is doing.

My point in raising this issue is not personal. I’ve enjoyed Nate’s work and think he’s been a very valuable political analyst over the last few years. In addition, I don’t have any business relationships with any pollsters. But the pollster scorecard as currently released is just not worth the attention it might otherwise deserve.

Check the comments to the piece …….they ARE  interesting……

June 15, 2010 - Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Updates | , , , ,

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