commentary on Politics and a little bit of everything else

CA-Gov/CA-Sen: Dems start feeling some California …….

It’s about time!

Now if the feeling can spread……

This would help the Democrats ….

Steve Singiser

Democrats across America can hope that California is a harbinger of things to come. Because if there is one clearly discernible trend towards the Democrats in the 2010 midterms, it can be found in the Golden State.

Consider the Senate race between incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer and GOP challenger Carly Fiorina:

Boxer has pulled into a narrow lead in recent weeks, a fact confirmed even by Rasmussen and SurveyUSA, two pollsters that have been quite bullish on GOP prospects this cycle. In August, the four polls of the race split evenly between Boxer and her challenger. In September, Boxer has led in the last eight polls released on the contest, creeping into the 50s in this weekend’s Los Angeles Times poll, which had her up by nine.

What’s going on here? Well, it could be any combination of three things:

  1. Recalcitrant Democrats might finally be coming home. Tom Jensen at PPP noted when they released their poll (PDF file) this month that the enthusiasm gap in California is not as acute as they have seen it elsewhere. The gap between the 2008 vote margin (+25 Obama) and the current sample by PPP (+21 Obama) was pretty minimal.
  1. Boxer always seems to close well. It is an article of faith among California Democrats that Boxer does better on Election Day than the polls would seem to predict. I checked out that theorem back in June, and found that (in 2004, at least) that was precisely the case.
  1. Boxer has been on the air in the second half of the month with a brutally effective ad regarding Fiorina’s tenure at HP:

September 27, 2010 - Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Updates, Women | , ,

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