commentary on Politics and a little bit of everything else

Nate Silver on the Obama bounce…..

Beyond Obama’s Bin Laden Bounce


A week after the news broke of the American raid that killed Osama bin Laden, bettors at Intrade, a political futures market, are barely any more likely to think that Barack Obama will win re-election.

As of this writing, Mr. Obama’s Democrats are given a 60.3 percent chance of winning next year’s presidential election. By contrast, the day before Bin Laden was killed, the market’s estimation of the Democrats’ chances had been 59.7 percent. That’s less than a full percentage point worth of improvement. Is this the appropriate reaction?

The “bounce” in Mr. Obama’s approval ratings has been fairly small — probably about 5 or 6 percentage points on average, although with some variability from survey to survey. I had been expecting a somewhat larger reaction.

At the same time, as I’ve repeatedly advised, the bounce is not necessarily the right lens through which to perceive the long-run electoral impact of the news.

The attraction of bounces is that they seem easy to quantify. Mr. Obama’s approval rating in the Gallup tracking poll improved from 46 percent before the Bin Laden announcement to a peak of 52 percent, before ticking down to 51 percent, where it remains now. There have been a few other things going on — the release of Mr. Obama’s long-form birth certificate, the tornadoes in Alabama, various economic reports, and so forth. But the Bin Laden coverage (rightly) has dominated the news, and there’s no doubt that most of the movement in Mr. Obama’s polling is attributable to it.

As time passes, however, the bounce will become blurrier, for two reasons. First, its magnitude will become smaller. And second, other events will intervene, and will either favorably or unfavorably affect Mr. Obama’s numbers.

Perhaps if we were able to control for all the other factors, the bounce would look something like this……


From Politicaldog101….

May 10, 2011 Posted by | Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Media, Men, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates | , , , | Leave a comment

The Truth……Keith…..

The economy grows when the government spends money — period. Infrastructure projects are good for short term employment and the long term health of our nation’s transportation system. Republicans find deficits only when Democrats are in the White House. How many hot checks did GWB write throughout his long, long eight years in the White House — for wars of choice and unfunded medicare beneftis (just to mention a few) without a peep from the Republicans here.

It is tough to hold sensible political discussions with folks who believe “everyone in Cambridge hates the cops” or who say things like “politics ain’t fair.” In fact, it is impossible. Actually that may be one of the reason why we have the current crop of insane folks running the House of Representatives. People are just too myopic to see that forest as they look for those radioactive grains of sand in the desert, and would rather vote their sillly prejudices than vote for the greater good (wouldn’t want to give the other guy an advantage — especially the black boy in the White House). If the Speaker wants to play chicken with the world economy in an attempt to get back the White House when a worldwide recession starts –then so be it.


From Politicaldog101….

May 10, 2011 Posted by | Blogs, Government, Media, Politics, Polls, Projections, The Economy, Updates | , , , | Leave a comment

Remember Iraq?

The US is still in limbo on what the government there wants in troop strength….

Seems things are a bit sideways on the domestic front…

Remember those stories about the Iraqi’s not wanting US troops there?

Forget about that….

mullen and maliki

U.S. Navy Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, meets with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in Baghdad on April 21, 2011.

Although Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has been seen as leaving the door open to some continued U.S. support, he has also asserted that Iraq no longer needs military help from the Americans. Any decision to extend the U.S. troop presence into 2012 would need approval from the Iraqi parliament. Compounding the problem is a wave of assassinations of government officials and threats by extremists of further violence should Iraqi leaders vote to extend the U.S. military presence.

“There is no certain time or certain date to decide on the U.S. military, and we will not be in a hurry to take a decision,” Osama al-Nujaifi, the speaker of parliament, said in an interview.

A growing chorus of military strategists in Washington would like a deal allowing at least some continued U.S. military presence in Iraq. Amid the broad unrest across the Middle East, they say, a U.S. foothold in Iraq is critical to help ensure stability in that country and to keep Iran and other potential aggressors in check…..


Is anyone surprised about this?

From Polticaldog101….

May 10, 2011 Posted by | Blogs, Counterpoints, Government, Media, Men, Military, Politics, Updates | | Leave a comment