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Nate Silver on the Obama bounce…..

Beyond Obama’s Bin Laden Bounce


A week after the news broke of the American raid that killed Osama bin Laden, bettors at Intrade, a political futures market, are barely any more likely to think that Barack Obama will win re-election.

As of this writing, Mr. Obama’s Democrats are given a 60.3 percent chance of winning next year’s presidential election. By contrast, the day before Bin Laden was killed, the market’s estimation of the Democrats’ chances had been 59.7 percent. That’s less than a full percentage point worth of improvement. Is this the appropriate reaction?

The “bounce” in Mr. Obama’s approval ratings has been fairly small — probably about 5 or 6 percentage points on average, although with some variability from survey to survey. I had been expecting a somewhat larger reaction.

At the same time, as I’ve repeatedly advised, the bounce is not necessarily the right lens through which to perceive the long-run electoral impact of the news.

The attraction of bounces is that they seem easy to quantify. Mr. Obama’s approval rating in the Gallup tracking poll improved from 46 percent before the Bin Laden announcement to a peak of 52 percent, before ticking down to 51 percent, where it remains now. There have been a few other things going on — the release of Mr. Obama’s long-form birth certificate, the tornadoes in Alabama, various economic reports, and so forth. But the Bin Laden coverage (rightly) has dominated the news, and there’s no doubt that most of the movement in Mr. Obama’s polling is attributable to it.

As time passes, however, the bounce will become blurrier, for two reasons. First, its magnitude will become smaller. And second, other events will intervene, and will either favorably or unfavorably affect Mr. Obama’s numbers.

Perhaps if we were able to control for all the other factors, the bounce would look something like this……


From Politicaldog101….


May 10, 2011 Posted by | Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Media, Men, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates | , , , | Leave a comment

The Truth……Keith…..

The economy grows when the government spends money — period. Infrastructure projects are good for short term employment and the long term health of our nation’s transportation system. Republicans find deficits only when Democrats are in the White House. How many hot checks did GWB write throughout his long, long eight years in the White House — for wars of choice and unfunded medicare beneftis (just to mention a few) without a peep from the Republicans here.

It is tough to hold sensible political discussions with folks who believe “everyone in Cambridge hates the cops” or who say things like “politics ain’t fair.” In fact, it is impossible. Actually that may be one of the reason why we have the current crop of insane folks running the House of Representatives. People are just too myopic to see that forest as they look for those radioactive grains of sand in the desert, and would rather vote their sillly prejudices than vote for the greater good (wouldn’t want to give the other guy an advantage — especially the black boy in the White House). If the Speaker wants to play chicken with the world economy in an attempt to get back the White House when a worldwide recession starts –then so be it.


From Politicaldog101….

May 10, 2011 Posted by | Blogs, Government, Media, Politics, Polls, Projections, The Economy, Updates | , , , | Leave a comment

The President brings up Immigration Reform to a captive crowd…He can’t do it alone though….

Certainly aware of the new Census numbers ….

The President of the United States talked up Immigration Reform….

The problem is…

With the GOP as the majority in the House…

There isn’t a prayer for any such bill’s passage…


The best way for any bill passing to reform immigration would be for Latino’s and Hispanic’s along will ALL the other people who immigrate to this country to vote against GOPer’s and Democrats who don’t support immigration legislation’s passage in 2012….

Once those people have been defeated or won in narrow races…

THEN the President should press for passage of a bill….

I do not need to bring up the fate of the ‘Dream Act’ which galvanized strong negative reaction from the right in both the Republican AND Democratic party….

The fate of Immigration Legislation is tied up in simple politics…

As the SouthWest begins to cool down with the realization that eventually Latino’s will out number Anglo’s….

The politics will eventually change…

How soon is anyones guess…

But blaming the President simply is NOT going to solve the problem…

He can’t do it alone….

President Obama told a gathering of business, labor, religious and political leaders at the White House on Tuesday that he remains committed to an overhaul of the nation’s immigration laws and wants to try again in the coming months to push Congress to pass a bill.

With his re-election campaign launched this month and Latino communities growing increasingly frustrated with his immigration policies, Mr. Obama summoned more than 60 high-profile supporters of the stalled overhaul legislation to a strategy session, looking for ways to revive it. Among those attending were MayorMichael R. Bloomberg of New York, an independent; Mayor Julian Castro of San Antonio, a Democrat; and former Gov.Arnold Schwarzenegger of California, a Republican.

Two big-city police chiefs, Raymond W. Kelly of New York and Charles Ramsey of Philadelphia, were there, as was Sheryl Sandberg, a top executive at Facebook, and Leith Anderson, president of the National Association of Evangelicals, the largest group of evangelical Christians.

Prospects for the proposed policy, which would grant legal status to millions of illegal immigrants and revamp the immigration system, seem bleak in this Congress, with staunch Republican opponents of the bill controlling pivotal committee positions in the House of Representatives. Recently Latino leaders have stepped up their criticism of Mr. Obama, as deportations have reached record numbers under his administration and he has offered no relief from the crackdown on immigrant communities.

Latino voters helped several Democrats, including Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the majority leader, survive the Republican shift in the midterm elections last fall, and they are expected to be a major force in the presidential vote next year.

In the closed meeting, Mr. Obama argued that the overhaul would bring immigrant entrepreneurs to the United States and was a crucial piece of the economic recovery, according to several people who attended…..


From Politicaldog101…

April 19, 2011 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Family, Government, Media, Men, Politics, Polls, Projections, The Economy, Updates, Women | , , | Leave a comment

Who keeps winning?

The story in the political junkies news over the last 36 hours is the bambozzelment of the House GOPers…..

While the media may be still screaming the echo’s of the last months GOP iron fisted demands….

The fact is…

Obama and the Senate Democrats out foxed Boehner and the House newbies…..


Without fan fair there have be stories coming out in the past 24 hours that the ACTUAL budget cuts for 2011 are anywhere from $17B to less than $1B….

Now I DO remember the newly elected GOP House members and their Tea Party friends demanding $100B in cuts….

That didn’t happen…

Did it?

We now see House GOP Boehner trying to put a good face on being fleeced by the Democrats who used the Senate Democrats, House Democrats and a dealing President to again sell the GOP snake oil….

As with the first budget bill fight……

Just when the GOP thought they had everybody on the ropes…..

They didn’t…..

I said this several times …

Everybody keep bitching about Obama not having any balls (I certainly have)

But again…

The guy and the Democrats get shit done….

Schumer and Reid have taken the lead from Pelosi…

And Reid the old boxer keeps giving good rounds in the Senate…..

Just like his re-election run…..

The Democrats are rolling along fine folks…

No draconian cuts…

And taxing the rich is still being pushed along with dialogue about more cuts….

And will likely do fine with the Debt Ceiling (that HAS to be raised ) fight….

That make sense

I hope the GOP Governors keep messing with everyone…

The Dem’s may lose the Senate…

But they  ARE gonna have gains in the House…

And a newly re-elected President come next November….

For sure….

From Politicaldog101

April 17, 2011 Posted by | Blogs, Counterpoints, Editorial, Government, Law, Media, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Projections, Taxes, The Economy, Updates | , , | Leave a comment

Can Al Sharpton help the President with ‘Black Folks’?

President Obama ……The nation’s first Black (or better yet bi-racial) President faces a quiet problem….

Black folks are a little peved at him ……

Why Obama has been VRY carfeul to not come off as black….

That same carefullness IS causing him some grumbling in black neiborhoods…

With the GOP in the headlines everyday trying to cut benefits in the nations social safety net….

And with more black faces in the media under George Bush (AG Holder is the only prominate Cabinet Secretary out there..and he keeps messing up) Obama is going to ‘Rev Al’ for help…..The Revereant….A media icon is up for it…..Visisting the White House and going corporate with media appearances ……

And speaking up for the President whenever and wherever he can….

The President is repaying Shapton with a visit to his organization in New York tonight…..

I always liked Rev. Al…..

Because after you got thru the Bull Shit he is spot on a lot of times…

With a past that was nothing to brag about (the Brawley Caper)…

Many forget he marched with Martin Luther King as a young activist…..

He must have quiet moments where he just looks at Obama and remembers marching for this moment …..

A Black President…..

With his ‘du’…and expensive suits….and media help

He has come full circle….

And so has a bit of this country

Rev. AL Sharpton in the White House with the President…

Who’d ever dream of that?

President Obama delivered remarks at the 20th Annual Keepers of the Dream Awards with Reverent Al Sharpton on Wednesday.

President Obama delivered remarks at the 20th Annual Keepers of the Dream Awards with Reverent Al Sharpton on Wednesday(IN NYC)(Keivom/News)



If you don’t believe Al Sharpton is emerging as “the president” of black America, just look at who’s speaking Wednesday at his annual National Action Network conference: President Barack Obama.

Timing is important. The nation’s first black president has largely finessed the topic of race. But Obama is now facing growing criticism from some African-American leaders that he lacks a “black agenda.”

This criticism has been smoldering in some circles for more than a year. The problem for Obama is that it is coming from some of the nation’s most-quoted African-American leaders.

It’s a widening rift. One Obama cannot afford now. Going into what could be a tough re-election bid, the last thing Obama needs is voter dissatisfaction in part of his base.

The question is asked: Where can frustrated African-American voters go? True, they may be unlikely to turn to Republicans. But they could stay home on Election Day. And high black turnout helped Obama win the White House…..


From Politicaldog101.Com


April 6, 2011 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Entertainment, Government, Media, Men, Politics, Polls, Projections, Travel, Updates | , , , | Leave a comment

Nate Silver joins the Ohio State NCAA win crowd….

How We Made Our N.C.A.A. Picks


I participated in my first N.C.A.A. tournament pool in 1992 when, as a 14-year-old, I correctly predicted sixth-seeded Michigan to reach the Final Four.

I don’t particularly remember what went into the prediction, other than that the pool offered some ridiculous bonus for picking lower seeds — and also, since I grew up in East Lansing, Mich., I could be pretty sure that nobody else would be willing to go all-in on the team from Ann Arbor. I’ve never been asked to return the 75 “units” I took in for finishing first, despite the fact that Michigan’s Fab Five had to forfeit its wins for recruiting violations.

This year, we’ve decided to do something a bit more scientific, analyzing the results for all tournament games since 2003 (a total of 512 games) and evaluating which factors best predicted success. Our forecast is here.

The goal is to have a system that makes good statistical sense and also makes decent basketball sense, as opposed to identifying a bunch of spurious correlations. There’s no Da Vinci code for winning the tournament; it’s just a matter of playing good basketball.

Let me give you an overview of the system; there’s more elaboration down below for those interested in the gory details.

The Simple Version

– First, we create a power rating for each team. The power rating is an aggregation of four computer ratings and two human ratings, all of which have performed well at predicting tournament games in the past:

Objective (computer) ratings:

a) Jeff Sagarin “predictor” ratings;
b) Ken Pomeroy Pythagorean ratings;
c) Joel Sokol LRMC rankings;
d) Sonny Moore power ratings.

Read more…

This From Polticaldog101…


March 15, 2011 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Entertainment, Media, Men, Polls, Projections, Sports, Updates | , , | Leave a comment

As the rebels recapture ground…One wonders…Will Obama be the President that lost Democracy in the Middle East?…

From the jump…..

On our little poll here the numbers read like this….(they are tiny numbers )

Should Obama do No-Fly Zones and other military action…..

No….45% None….

Yes….18% to evacuate people

No…..Let NATO take the lead


So among the readers of this blog…..

The President of the America IS doing the right thing by NOT doing anything….


But I wonder how this doing nothing is gonna play on the domestic and world stage?

That question may….


May not be important …

I’m sure the big boys polling have come down close to the results here…


But right now the President is taking heat from both US political parties on NOT doing anything to help the opposition in Libya… do anything….

This about the same thing that happens in Iran every few years..

The US hops up the population…

They mound demonstrations…

They get taken out…

Again and again….


This time…

If Gaddafi is able to retake Libya back in a civil war things aren’t going be so nice….

The US and NATO will shown other rulers in the area that they will let them carry their own fight to their population…..

The American push for democracy will ring hallow….

And the bad guys will be happy to ramp up their oil prices and give us the finger….

Is all this worth the abuse…..


I  know sometimes you swallow hard and move on….

Is this one of those times for the President?

But this will be no joke in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and other capital’s…

The US will not fight anymore…


The American’s are tired…

And they want to go home….


Which is of course true…..


A lot of people are mad at James Clapper , the US Director of National Intelligence, because he got it right today when he told the Senate Foreign Relations Panel that if no one comes to help the Libyan rebels….

They will lose their battle with Gaddafi’s forces in the end….


Everyone’s tired….

They want to send the troops home…

The questions are….

Will the World take rest also while we do?

And ….

Will President Obama….Following his Defense Secretary’s advice …In fighting no more…

Be the guy who helped cure  ’Democracy fever’ in the Middle East and North Africa…..

From Politicaldog101….

March 10, 2011 Posted by | Aircraft, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Editorial, Government, Media, Men, Military, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Projections, The Economy, Travel, Updates | , , , , | Leave a comment

Wisconsin Legislators’s Pass Governor Walkers Law….


Wisconsin Assembly Passes Walker’s Anti-Union Bill


The Wisconsin state Assembly has passed Gov. Scott Walker’s bill to roll back the rights of public employee unions, capping off a month of protest and controversy that has gripped the state. The bill now heads to Walker for his signature.

The final vote count was 53-42. It followed Wednesday night’s passage in the Senate, and the surprise maneuver that Republicans had undertaken to move ahead on the anti-union provisions on their own. The GOP prepared a new bill that stripped out clearly fiscal elements, allowing them to move ahead without need for a three-fifths quorum required to vote on budget bills — though Democrats have argued that the bill still contains fiscal elements, and they could potentially challenge it on that basis.

In Thursday’s Assembly session — which was delayed due to a security lockdown of the Capitol — the Democrats, clad in specially printed orange T-shirts that declared their labor solidarity, delivered many speeches and lodged many motions, in part to register their protest and in part to delay the vote. By contrast, only a few Republicans spoke, speaking of their concerns about maintaining the state’s finances, making hard choices and avoiding layoffs by relieving the financial pressures on local governments.

A new series of battles in the state now seems all but assured. Democrats have pledged to recall the Republican members of the state Senate who are eligible, under the state law requiring at least one year of a term to be completed, and then to go after Walker next year.


Read more »

From Politicaldog101.Com


March 10, 2011 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Education, Government, Law, Media, Men, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, The Economy, Updates, Women | , , | 3 Comments

Is President Obama playing Defense when he should be leading the Offense?


Talkandpolitics has been on this for a quite a while about Obama….

The man simply waits on almost every issue until he see’s how the cards fall….

Then he acts…..

This is not new for him…

He did this when he served in the Illinois legislature….

Preferring to abstain from votes in order to not get go on record  with his views or stance…


We now find ourselves in a situation where the Republicans , embolden by the recent Mid-Term results in the House are calling the shots…..

While the Democrats scramble to get their point across…

Now I know Boehner is the Speaker of the House so money bills come from him first…

And I know he’s got a solid majority….


But when was the last time you heard Harry Reid or Nancy Pelosi mentioned up on Capital Hill?

Vice President Biden…Who is the lead for the White House Budget talks…Is schudeled to go on the road after next week…

Does he go?

If so….

We know Obama isn’t gonna step in….


So here we are waiting to see WTF is gonna happen….


The President…Who IS a Democrat…

Seems to be playing a GOP song…

Coming out for more budget cuts….

Strangely silent on the Labor battle in Wisconsin after endorsing it…

And doing absolutely nothing while the country fumes over a rise in gas princes that has nothing to do with current supply levels….


I keep defending President  Obama because even after this he’ll somehow find a way to come out on top…

I know he will….

But frankly….

Talkandpolitics does a have a point…

The guy just doesn’t lead…

He just jumps in at the last minute to do a deal most of the time it seems….

That’s who he is…..

As in when he plays ‘hoops’….

A Defensive player……

Who remarkily wins…..


From Polticaldog101….


March 6, 2011 Posted by | Blogs, Counterpoints, Editorial, Government, Law, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Projections, The Economy, Updates | , , , , | Leave a comment

Democratic Wisconsin State Senators will return to vote on Governor Walker’s Law….

Their hope with returning and the Governore’s union busting law passing is that the Wisconsin Governor has dug himself into a deep enough hole that he’ll hurt himself  and come up for recall…and that he will lit a fire under labor and Democrats at home and around the country…..

We’ll see….

The Wisconsin Governor can see he won this, eh?

Democratic Sen. Mark Miller said the Democrats intend to let the full Senate vote and potentially pass Gov. Scott Walker’s “budget-repair” bill, which would also limit public unions’ collective bargaining rights. The Democrats believe that the measure lacks voter support based on recent polls and that passage could hurt Republicans politically, Mr. Miller said.

He said the Democrats, who fled to Illinois on Feb. 17, also want to fight Mr. Walker’s recently announced two-year budget plan, which cuts spending by $4.2 billion, or 6.7%, including $1.25 billion less in state aid to schools and local governments.

“We are now looking at returning to the state capitol and requiring the senators to take a vote and have them declare who they’re with — the workers or the governor,” Mr. Miller said Sunday. He said he thinks recent polls have been “disastrous” for Mr. Walker and give Democrats more leverage to seek budget changes.

Chris Schrimpf, a spokesman for the governor, said, “If the governor made his decisions based on polling, he would still be in the general assembly. The voters elected people to make the difficult decisions to balance the budget and create an environment where 250,000 jobs can be created by the private sector.”


From Politicaldog101….

March 6, 2011 Posted by | Breaking News, Counterpoints, Education, Government, Home, Law, Media, Men, Politics, Polls, The Economy, Travel, Updates | , , | Leave a comment