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Here’s one guess …..

Or…

Could you call it a suggestion for the President’s handlers?…

How Obama Will Run Against Romney

Kevin Drum: “My guess: the flip-flopper charge probably won’t get much traction. It’s mostly a problem for conservatives, who don’t fully trust that Romney is one of them, but by the time summer rolls around they’re going to be his most fire-breathing supporters. They’ll have long since decided to forgive and forget, and independents won’t care that much in the first place as long as Romney seems halfway reasonable in his current incarnation. It’s possible that Obama can do both — Romney is a flip-flopper and a right-wing nutcase! — but if he has to choose, my guess is that he should forget about the flip-flopping and simply do everything he can to force Romney into the wingnut conservative camp. That’ll be his big weakness when Labor Day rolls around.”

Politicalwire….

This Post is from Politicaldog101.com….

January 7, 2012 Posted by | Entertainment, Government, Media, Men, Politics, Polls, Projections, The Economy, Updates | , , , | 1 Comment

2012….Democrats…The party of Grass?

Democrats’ Secret Weapon in 2012: Marijuana?

The Wall Street Journal reports that Democratic strategists “are studying a California marijuana-legalization initiative to see if similar ballot measures could energize young, liberal voters in swing states for the 2012 presidential election.”

“Democratic strategists liken the marijuana effort to the 2004 ballot drives to ban gay marriage in Ohio and 10 other states. Whether those measures helped then-President George W. Bush win that year remains a point of debate, as turnout was high even in states without the issue on the ballot. But many conservatives say the measure drove thousands to the polls in Ohio, the election’s central battleground, where Mr. Bush won by just two percentage points, or about 118,000 votes.”

“Now, some Democratic strategists say marijuana legalization could do the same for their party.”

 

October 7, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Health, Media, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates | , , , | Leave a comment

TPL…..Taxes are due to rise in 2011 if Congress doesn’t extend the Bush tax cuts……

[ President Bush signs his $1.35 trillion tax cut on June 7, 2001, at the White House. ]

From TPL……

On or about Jan. 1, 2011, federal, state and local tax rates are scheduled to rise quite sharply. President George W. Bush’s tax cuts expire on that date, meaning that the highest federal personal income tax rate will go 39.6% from 35%, the highest federal dividend tax rate pops up to 39.6% from 15%, the capital gains tax rate to 20% from 15%, and the estate tax rate to 55% from zero. Lots and lots of other changes will also occur as a result of the sunset provision in the Bush tax cuts.

Tax rates have been and will be raised on income earned from off-shore investments. Payroll taxes are already scheduled to rise in 2013 and the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) will be digging deeper and deeper into middle-income taxpayers. And there’s always the celebrated tax increase on Cadillac health care plans. State and local tax rates are also going up in 2011 as they did in 2010. Tax rate increases next year are everywhere.

The GOP will be able  to hit  a HOMERUN on taxes if the tax increase happen in 2011.

Now, if people know tax rates will be higher next year than they are this year, what will those people do this year? They will shift production and income out of next year into this year to the extent possible. As a result, income this year has already been inflated above where it otherwise should be and next year, 2011, income will be lower than it otherwise should be.

Also, the prospect of rising prices, higher interest rates and more regulations next year will further entice demand and supply to be shifted from 2011 into 2010. In my view, this shift of income and demand is a major reason that the economy in 2010 has appeared as strong as it has. When we pass the tax boundary of Jan. 1, 2011, my best guess is that the train goes off the tracks and we get our worst nightmare of a severe “double dip” recession.

In 1981, Ronald Reagan—with bipartisan support—began the first phase in a series of tax cuts passed under the Economic Recovery Tax Act (ERTA), whereby the bulk of the tax cuts didn’t take effect until Jan. 1, 1983. Reagan’s delayed tax cuts were the mirror image of President Barack Obama’s delayed tax rate increases. For 1981 and 1982 people deferred so much economic activity that real GDP was basically flat (i.e., no growth), and the unemployment rate rose to well over 10%.

But at the tax boundary of Jan. 1, 1983 the economy took off like a rocket, with average real growth reaching 7.5% in 1983 and 5.5% in 1984. It has always amazed me how tax cuts don’t work until they take effect. Mr. Obama’s experience with deferred tax rate increases will be the reverse. The economy will collapse in 2011

Consider corporate profits as a share of GDP. Today, corporate profits as a share of GDP are way too high given the state of the U.S. economy. These high profits reflect the shift in income into 2010 from 2011. These profits will tumble in 2011, preceded most likely by the stock market.

In 2010, without any prepayment penalties, people can cash in their Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs), Keough deferred income accounts and 401(k) deferred income accounts. After paying their taxes, these deferred income accounts can be rolled into Roth IRAs that provide after-tax income to their owners into the future. Given what’s going to happen to tax rates, this conversion seems like a no-brainer.

The result will be a crash in tax receipts once the surge is past. If you thought deficits and unemployment have been bad lately, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

More from Arthur Laffer @ the Wall Street Journal…..

June 8, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Law, Media, Politics, Taxes, The Economy, Updates | , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

TPL…..Taxes are due to rise in 2011 if Congress doesn't extend the Bush tax cuts……

[ President Bush signs his $1.35 trillion tax cut on June 7, 2001, at the White House. ]

From TPL……

On or about Jan. 1, 2011, federal, state and local tax rates are scheduled to rise quite sharply. President George W. Bush’s tax cuts expire on that date, meaning that the highest federal personal income tax rate will go 39.6% from 35%, the highest federal dividend tax rate pops up to 39.6% from 15%, the capital gains tax rate to 20% from 15%, and the estate tax rate to 55% from zero. Lots and lots of other changes will also occur as a result of the sunset provision in the Bush tax cuts.

Tax rates have been and will be raised on income earned from off-shore investments. Payroll taxes are already scheduled to rise in 2013 and the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) will be digging deeper and deeper into middle-income taxpayers. And there’s always the celebrated tax increase on Cadillac health care plans. State and local tax rates are also going up in 2011 as they did in 2010. Tax rate increases next year are everywhere.

The GOP will be able  to hit  a HOMERUN on taxes if the tax increase happen in 2011.

Now, if people know tax rates will be higher next year than they are this year, what will those people do this year? They will shift production and income out of next year into this year to the extent possible. As a result, income this year has already been inflated above where it otherwise should be and next year, 2011, income will be lower than it otherwise should be.

Also, the prospect of rising prices, higher interest rates and more regulations next year will further entice demand and supply to be shifted from 2011 into 2010. In my view, this shift of income and demand is a major reason that the economy in 2010 has appeared as strong as it has. When we pass the tax boundary of Jan. 1, 2011, my best guess is that the train goes off the tracks and we get our worst nightmare of a severe “double dip” recession.

In 1981, Ronald Reagan—with bipartisan support—began the first phase in a series of tax cuts passed under the Economic Recovery Tax Act (ERTA), whereby the bulk of the tax cuts didn’t take effect until Jan. 1, 1983. Reagan’s delayed tax cuts were the mirror image of President Barack Obama’s delayed tax rate increases. For 1981 and 1982 people deferred so much economic activity that real GDP was basically flat (i.e., no growth), and the unemployment rate rose to well over 10%.

But at the tax boundary of Jan. 1, 1983 the economy took off like a rocket, with average real growth reaching 7.5% in 1983 and 5.5% in 1984. It has always amazed me how tax cuts don’t work until they take effect. Mr. Obama’s experience with deferred tax rate increases will be the reverse. The economy will collapse in 2011

Consider corporate profits as a share of GDP. Today, corporate profits as a share of GDP are way too high given the state of the U.S. economy. These high profits reflect the shift in income into 2010 from 2011. These profits will tumble in 2011, preceded most likely by the stock market.

In 2010, without any prepayment penalties, people can cash in their Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs), Keough deferred income accounts and 401(k) deferred income accounts. After paying their taxes, these deferred income accounts can be rolled into Roth IRAs that provide after-tax income to their owners into the future. Given what’s going to happen to tax rates, this conversion seems like a no-brainer.

The result will be a crash in tax receipts once the surge is past. If you thought deficits and unemployment have been bad lately, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

More from Arthur Laffer @ the Wall Street Journal…..

June 8, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Law, Media, Politics, Taxes, The Economy, Updates | , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Daniel…….South Dakota Senate: Filling closed yesterday in South Dakota and Senator John Thune (R-SD) is running UNOPPOSED…..is he going for the WH in 2012?

Hello Dog!
The Filling Deadline closed yesterday in the State of South Dakota. Democrats WERE UNABLE to field a Candidate which means Incumbent Senator John Thune (R-SD) will UNOPPOSED this Fall.

Chris Cilizza of the “The Fix” examined and accessed Thune’s Chances for a Potential Presidential Bid against President Barack Obama (D) yesterday evening.

Check out “The Fix” @ The Washington Post………

Today’s candidate filing deadline in South Dakota marks the start of serious talk about Sen. John Thune‘s potential presidential campaign in 2012.

The Thune forces have been loathe to discuss his potential 2012 candidacy while there was still a possibility — albeit it a VERY slim one — that he could draw a serious Democratic challenge for his re-election race this fall.

But, privately, those close to Thune acknowledge that he has been receiving considerable encouragement to run and is likely to take a hard look at a national bid. Those same sources caution, however, that he remains entirely undecided and his decision will be heavily shaped by what he hears and sees in the coming months. (They also note that Thune will keep an eye closely on South Dakota to ensure he doesn’t repeat the mistakes of then Sen. George Allen in 2006.)

Thune will likely focus on building out an issue portfolio via his chairmanship of the Republican Policy Committee — the  committee released a report on Iran this morning — with a specific focus on spending and debt issues. (Thune has been an outspoken opponent of the Troubled Asset Relief Program almost since its inception — although he did vote for the bill.)

He will also likely begin to do more for candidates running for office in 2010 via his Heartland Values PAC — a process that will allow him to visit key early primary and caucus states to gauge support.

More of this piece…..

Daniel G.

March 31, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Law, Media, Men, Politics, Updates | , , , | 7 Comments

Daniel…….South Dakota Senate: Filling closed yesterday in South Dakota and Senator John Thune (R-SD) is running UNOPPOSED…..is he going for the WH in 2012?

Hello Dog!
The Filling Deadline closed yesterday in the State of South Dakota. Democrats WERE UNABLE to field a Candidate which means Incumbent Senator John Thune (R-SD) will UNOPPOSED this Fall.

Chris Cilizza of the “The Fix” examined and accessed Thune’s Chances for a Potential Presidential Bid against President Barack Obama (D) yesterday evening.

Check out “The Fix” @ The Washington Post………

Today’s candidate filing deadline in South Dakota marks the start of serious talk about Sen. John Thune‘s potential presidential campaign in 2012.

The Thune forces have been loathe to discuss his potential 2012 candidacy while there was still a possibility — albeit it a VERY slim one — that he could draw a serious Democratic challenge for his re-election race this fall.

But, privately, those close to Thune acknowledge that he has been receiving considerable encouragement to run and is likely to take a hard look at a national bid. Those same sources caution, however, that he remains entirely undecided and his decision will be heavily shaped by what he hears and sees in the coming months. (They also note that Thune will keep an eye closely on South Dakota to ensure he doesn’t repeat the mistakes of then Sen. George Allen in 2006.)

Thune will likely focus on building out an issue portfolio via his chairmanship of the Republican Policy Committee — the  committee released a report on Iran this morning — with a specific focus on spending and debt issues. (Thune has been an outspoken opponent of the Troubled Asset Relief Program almost since its inception — although he did vote for the bill.)

He will also likely begin to do more for candidates running for office in 2010 via his Heartland Values PAC — a process that will allow him to visit key early primary and caucus states to gauge support.

More of this piece…..

Daniel G.

March 31, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Law, Media, Men, Politics, Updates | , , , | 7 Comments

5 Reasons why Romney's Political Career isn't Dead…….

From Marc Ambinder @ TheAtlantic……

In politics, it’s very easy to predict the future.

Doing it accurately is near impossible.

The entire political establishment suffers from anchor-bias illness: we place way too much importance on the last major event in a series when trying to figure out whether it will bear on the future. Health reform that looks like Mitt Romney’s version in Massachusetts passes Congress? Romney’s political career is over because Republicans are united in opposition to that health care legislation. That’s anchor bias — the same type of bias that consigned the Democratic majority to history the day after Scott Brown won Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat in Massachusetts — the same type of cognitive error that Barney Frank made on the night of Brown’s victory when he said, well, maybe we ought to slow down again.  Human beings are very bad at figuring out how long an effect will last, and very bad at predicting how events they cannot anticipate will influence future probabilities. On this reason alone, we should be wary of assuming that the former Massachusetts governor’s political over is over. Here are four more:

Amen……

Contrary to Ambinder…Romney ‘s future will be decided by his party and the right…..who will have to decide if they can stomach a past moderate leaning Massachusetts Governor……

March 30, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Healthcare, Media, Men, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Updates | , | 7 Comments

5 Reasons why Romney’s Political Career isn’t Dead…….

From Marc Ambinder @ TheAtlantic……

In politics, it’s very easy to predict the future.

Doing it accurately is near impossible.

The entire political establishment suffers from anchor-bias illness: we place way too much importance on the last major event in a series when trying to figure out whether it will bear on the future. Health reform that looks like Mitt Romney’s version in Massachusetts passes Congress? Romney’s political career is over because Republicans are united in opposition to that health care legislation. That’s anchor bias — the same type of bias that consigned the Democratic majority to history the day after Scott Brown won Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat in Massachusetts — the same type of cognitive error that Barney Frank made on the night of Brown’s victory when he said, well, maybe we ought to slow down again.  Human beings are very bad at figuring out how long an effect will last, and very bad at predicting how events they cannot anticipate will influence future probabilities. On this reason alone, we should be wary of assuming that the former Massachusetts governor’s political over is over. Here are four more:

Amen……

Contrary to Ambinder…Romney ‘s future will be decided by his party and the right…..who will have to decide if they can stomach a past moderate leaning Massachusetts Governor……

March 30, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Healthcare, Media, Men, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Updates | , | 7 Comments

Has Mitt Romney's history tied him to Healthcare?

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's signature achievement from his Beacon Hill tenure has become something he’s now defending rather than touting.

[ Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s signature achievement from his Beacon Hill (Mass.)  tenure has become something he’s now defending rather than touting. ]

A lot of people don’t know the fact that Massachusetts under Romney’s governorship had a comprehensive healthcare program put into place…..While Romeny was Governor the program was trend setting…..Now Romeny has come out forcefully against the just passed Federal Healthcare Bill……Hummmmm?

In the days immediately before and after passage of the landmark health care reform billMitt Romney responded so forcefully as to suggest his own political fate is tied to the new law.

It may well be.

Just as health care, or “Obamacare,” as it is derided on the right, hangs over this year’s midterm elections, it is already casting a shadow on the 2012 presidential contest — and its GOP front-runner. What was once thought to be an asset for Romney, his passage as Massachusetts governor of a health care mandate for the state’s residents, now poses a potentially serious threat to his White House hopes.

The prospect of a larger government role in health care has become so toxic among conservatives that Romney’s principal calling card from his Beacon Hill tenure has become something he’s now defending rather than touting.

While the first primary contest of the presidential race is still just under two years away, and Romney hasn’t officially made his intentions known, the quandary has already become reminiscent of the predicament then-Sen. Hillary Clinton grappled with in the run-up to the 2008 race.

Having supported the 2002 congressional resolution that the Democratic Party’s base viewed as giving President Bush a free hand to invade Iraq, Clinton and her top advisers spent years debating how to address what became a definitional issue in the primary.

More……..

March 29, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Government, Healthcare, Law, Media, Men, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Updates | , , , | 9 Comments

Has Mitt Romney’s history tied him to Healthcare?

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's signature achievement from his Beacon Hill tenure has become something he’s now defending rather than touting.

[ Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s signature achievement from his Beacon Hill (Mass.)  tenure has become something he’s now defending rather than touting. ]

A lot of people don’t know the fact that Massachusetts under Romney’s governorship had a comprehensive healthcare program put into place…..While Romeny was Governor the program was trend setting…..Now Romeny has come out forcefully against the just passed Federal Healthcare Bill……Hummmmm?

In the days immediately before and after passage of the landmark health care reform billMitt Romney responded so forcefully as to suggest his own political fate is tied to the new law.

It may well be.

Just as health care, or “Obamacare,” as it is derided on the right, hangs over this year’s midterm elections, it is already casting a shadow on the 2012 presidential contest — and its GOP front-runner. What was once thought to be an asset for Romney, his passage as Massachusetts governor of a health care mandate for the state’s residents, now poses a potentially serious threat to his White House hopes.

The prospect of a larger government role in health care has become so toxic among conservatives that Romney’s principal calling card from his Beacon Hill tenure has become something he’s now defending rather than touting.

While the first primary contest of the presidential race is still just under two years away, and Romney hasn’t officially made his intentions known, the quandary has already become reminiscent of the predicament then-Sen. Hillary Clinton grappled with in the run-up to the 2008 race.

Having supported the 2002 congressional resolution that the Democratic Party’s base viewed as giving President Bush a free hand to invade Iraq, Clinton and her top advisers spent years debating how to address what became a definitional issue in the primary.

More……..

March 29, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Government, Healthcare, Law, Media, Men, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Updates | , , , | 9 Comments