Jamesb101.com

commentary on Politics and a little bit of everything else

The Dogs take on Alvin Greene getting elected……

Ok…Its been few days now and after checking some stuff over at Fivethirtyeight and other media stories…I think I can GUESS on how the thing went down…..

Alvin Greene ran for the Senate from South Carolina ……we know that….

Why …or how he got the $10,400 filling check…we don’t know….

How he got elected seems to be like this…

Vic Rawl doesn’t have many friends….

From reports he isn’t really popular (18% negative numbers ) in the state…..

Alvin Geene was/is an unknown….

He says he went around the state informally campaigning…but most people doubt that….

And Greene’s name comes FIRST on the ballot.….

Now the good part….

Evidently in South Carolina …or down South…Everybody….Black and White knowns that if you spell your name Browne or Greene with an ‘e’ on the end……You’re black….

Greene took almost all the black  vote in the state….But also held his own in GOP counties also….

Most of the people analysing the race have no reason for why Green did alright in GOP area’s except to say that most people already think DeMint has the seat on lockdown….

The reviewers DO NOT think there was a deliberate vote for Greeene by Republicans…..


To Sum up….

Greene thru the circimstances in play……first name on the ballot….. the base black vote….. done, it appears on his name…since virtually no one had heard,  or seen him before the vote…Rawl wasn’t popular…..so he didn’t even garner enough votes in the white area’s..those people stayed home…..

And lastly …….Greene seemed to get votes in the white area’s also…..even though people had no idea who he was….

No matter what…..Not a good case for Rawl….I’d think…..

Check the last sentence below on DeMint…..

Could there be another upset down the road?


From FivethirtyEight.…..

That leaves what I think are now two scenarios:

A. The first is a combination of the first and second possibilities of my initial post: Greene was a nobody, but Rawl was darn near close to a nobody, and thus Greene’s alphabetical ballot position, coupled with whatever signal the spelling of his surname sent to some African Americans that he might be (and in fact is) an African American, with a dash of Rawl’s high disapproval among the 18 percent of survey respondents who had heard of him, combined to take what in theory might otherwise have been a 50/50 split among two broadly unknown candidates and turned it instead into a 59/41 race.

B. Somebody with access to software and machines engineered a very devious manipulation of the vote returns–but not so devious that he/she/they were unable to cover the tracks of the digit patterns in those results.

UPDATE: The second commenter to this post, along with a variety of commenters to the previous post and several analysts, have all posed this question about vote-tinkering: Why would the GOP or DeMint or conservatives bother to do so in this race? The assumption is that DeMint will cruise. And he probably will. But given that he was expected to run against a virtual unknown in Rawl, DeMint’s head-to-head numbers were pretty dismal in this (presumably internal) poll, and put him not entirely out of reach even in this PPP poll taken a week or so before the primary. So I’m not entirely sure DeMint, though very safe, was a lock to win re-election.

…see also 


Advertisements

June 12, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates | , , , | 19 Comments