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The Dogs take on Alvin Greene getting elected……

Ok…Its been few days now and after checking some stuff over at Fivethirtyeight and other media stories…I think I can GUESS on how the thing went down…..

Alvin Greene ran for the Senate from South Carolina ……we know that….

Why …or how he got the $10,400 filling check…we don’t know….

How he got elected seems to be like this…

Vic Rawl doesn’t have many friends….

From reports he isn’t really popular (18% negative numbers ) in the state…..

Alvin Geene was/is an unknown….

He says he went around the state informally campaigning…but most people doubt that….

And Greene’s name comes FIRST on the ballot.….

Now the good part….

Evidently in South Carolina …or down South…Everybody….Black and White knowns that if you spell your name Browne or Greene with an ‘e’ on the end……You’re black….

Greene took almost all the black  vote in the state….But also held his own in GOP counties also….

Most of the people analysing the race have no reason for why Green did alright in GOP area’s except to say that most people already think DeMint has the seat on lockdown….

The reviewers DO NOT think there was a deliberate vote for Greeene by Republicans…..


To Sum up….

Greene thru the circimstances in play……first name on the ballot….. the base black vote….. done, it appears on his name…since virtually no one had heard,  or seen him before the vote…Rawl wasn’t popular…..so he didn’t even garner enough votes in the white area’s..those people stayed home…..

And lastly …….Greene seemed to get votes in the white area’s also…..even though people had no idea who he was….

No matter what…..Not a good case for Rawl….I’d think…..

Check the last sentence below on DeMint…..

Could there be another upset down the road?


From FivethirtyEight.…..

That leaves what I think are now two scenarios:

A. The first is a combination of the first and second possibilities of my initial post: Greene was a nobody, but Rawl was darn near close to a nobody, and thus Greene’s alphabetical ballot position, coupled with whatever signal the spelling of his surname sent to some African Americans that he might be (and in fact is) an African American, with a dash of Rawl’s high disapproval among the 18 percent of survey respondents who had heard of him, combined to take what in theory might otherwise have been a 50/50 split among two broadly unknown candidates and turned it instead into a 59/41 race.

B. Somebody with access to software and machines engineered a very devious manipulation of the vote returns–but not so devious that he/she/they were unable to cover the tracks of the digit patterns in those results.

UPDATE: The second commenter to this post, along with a variety of commenters to the previous post and several analysts, have all posed this question about vote-tinkering: Why would the GOP or DeMint or conservatives bother to do so in this race? The assumption is that DeMint will cruise. And he probably will. But given that he was expected to run against a virtual unknown in Rawl, DeMint’s head-to-head numbers were pretty dismal in this (presumably internal) poll, and put him not entirely out of reach even in this PPP poll taken a week or so before the primary. So I’m not entirely sure DeMint, though very safe, was a lock to win re-election.

…see also 


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June 12, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates | , , , | 19 Comments

Daniel…..California Primaries: Whitman, Fiorina enjoying BIG leads BUT Campbell fares better than Fiorina in a General Election Match-Up new LA Times / USC / Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Survey shows

Hello Folks!

We’re 9 Days away from the “Golden States” Primaries and a new Statewide Survey comissioned by the Los Angeles Times and the University of Southern California done by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner shows the two Women running in the Republican Primaries holding BIG leads.

One BIG Caveat:

Are Republicans are about to nominate the weaker Republican Senate Candidate for November? The Survey shows former U. S. Rep. Tom Campbell (R-CA) would lead Incumbent Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) by 7 Points while former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R-CA) would trail Boxer by 6 Points.

Time and Time again I said that the GOP would only have a shot with Campbell as a Senate Candidate against Boxer. I WAS RIGHT spot on.

Mark my words: If Fiorina wins this (as it looks now most likely) it’s GAME OVER for Republicans in the California Senate Race.

Los Angeles Times / University of Southern California / Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Survey

California Governor

Republican Primary

Former Ebay CEO Meg Whitman  53 %
State Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner  29 %
Others  5 %
Undecided  12 %

General Election

Former California Governor Jerry Brown (D)  44 %
Former Ebay CEO Meg Whitman (R)  38 %
Others  5 %
Undecided  12 %

Former California Governor Jerry Brown (D)  45 %
State Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner (R)  31 %
Others  8 %
Undecided  14 %

California United States Senate

Republican Primary

Former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina  38 %
Former U. S. Rep. Tom Campbell  23 %
State Representative Chuck DeVore  16 %
Undecided  16 %
Others  2 %
Undecided  20 %

General Election

Incumbent Senator Barbara Boxer (D)  44 %
Former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R)  38 %
Others  4 %
Undecided  13 %

Former U. S. Rep. Tom Campbell (R)  45 %
Incumbent Senator Barbara Boxer (D)  38 %
Others  3 %
Undecided  13 %

Incumbent Senator Barbara Boxer (D)  46 %
State Representative Chuck DeVore (R)  36 %
Others  6 %
Undecided  10 %

Analysis:

See the top.

Daniel G.

May 30, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates, Women | , , , , | 1 Comment

Daniel……A look back at the 2008 Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary and what could it mean for Tuesdays Race between Specter and Sestak

Hello Folks!
[ Sestak and Specter ]
Hello Folks!

I decided to take a deeper look at the PA-SEN Race between Specter and Sestak,  and the best way to look at potential Outcomes is to look back at the 2008 Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary between Obama and Clinton.

Specter has huge support in the Philadelphia Area.

However in 2008 Obama clobbered Clinton in Philadephia by a 63-35 margin; Yet he still lost the State by 10 Points 55-45.

Link Map from a CNN Elections Results Page….

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/county/#PADEMMAPprimary

( As you can see if you hold your Mouse over the Counties in the Map Obama won Philly 65-35 and still lost the State. )

Turnout should be much, much lighter on Tuesday.
And here is the CNN Exit Poll for PA:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#PADEM


Daniel G.

We will see……

This IS close!

May 14, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Politics, Polls, Updates | , , , | 9 Comments