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Daniel……DailyKos…..Lincoln still up over Halter in the Arkansas Senate Democratic Primary………..

New DKOS/R2000 Poll has Lincoln up 45-33 over Halter.

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2010/4/14/AR/473

From the DailyKos piece…..

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 4/12-14. Likely voters. MoE 4% (3/22-24 results)

Democratic primary MoE 5%

Blanche Lincoln (D) 45 (44)

Bill Halter (D) 33 (31)
Other 6 (0)
Undecided 16 (25)

Favorable/Unfavorable/No opinion among Democrats

Lincoln 65/31/4 (62/34/6)
Halter 69/11/23 (68/10/27)

That +1 gain for Halter in the horserace is well within the poll’s margin of error, and presents nothing more than float. The favorabilities are actually quite the story — the Lincoln campaign has been relentlessly negative on Halter, yet none of that mud (all of it ridiculous and false) has tainted Halter. He’s shrugged off all attacks with nary a problem.

On the other side, Lincoln has faced a barrage of negative ads from Halter allies in labor, yet those have done little to damage Lincoln. In fact, she’s up a net +6 in her favorabilities. Apparently, Arkansas Democrats aren’t paying too much attention to the negativity.

On the other hand, we’ve seen “other” shoot up from nothing two weeks ago, to six percent this week. That “other” is D.C. Morrison, who scored 10 percent in a poll for Arkansas business publication Talk Business. Morrison is a no-name conservadem spending no money in the race. But in a race turning nasty, he’s starting to pick up support by virtue of not being the other two candidates.

More……..

Listen Folks…..This seat is probably lost to the Democrats……..

I just don’t see Halter getting a win here…..He’s probably going to inch up on Lincoln…..and the primary could actually be close…..but I see this seat just about gone with either of the two….

April 15, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Updates, Women | , , , , | 6 Comments

Daniel…..Arkansas Senate Primaries: Lincoln leads Halter by 7 in Democratic Primary; Boozman leads Baker by 30 in the Republican Primary according to a TALKBUSINESS/Zata3 Survey…..

Hello Dog Folks!

We’ve now the very first Survey on both Arkansas Primaries this year.

In the Democratic Primary Incumbent Senator Blanche Lambert Lincoln (D-AR) leads Arkansas Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter (D-AR) by only 7 Points.
A Mason-Dixon Poll done for the Arkansas News Bureau in January showed Lincoln with an 18-Point lead (52-34).

Meanwhile in the Republican Primary we’ve the very first Primary Survey for the entire Election Cycle showing U. S. Rep. John N. Boozman (R-AR) leading State Senate Minority Leader Gilbert Baker (R-AR) by a whopping 30 Point-margin, 44-14.

All other Candidates are in single digits.

TALKBUSINESS / Zata3 Survey

Arkansas Senate 2010

Democratic Primary

Incumbent Senator Blanche Lambert Lincoln  38 %
Arkansas Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter  31 %
D. C. Morrison 10 %
Undecided  20 %

Republican Primary

U. S. Rep. John N. Boozman  44 %
State Senate Minority Leader Gilbert Baker  14 %
`04 GOP Senate Nominee Jim Holt  8 %
Businessman Curtis Coleman  5 %
Randy Alexander  3 %
State Senator Kim Dexter Hendren  3 %
Conrad Reynolds  3 %
Fred Ramey  1 %
Undecided  17 %

Analysis:

Keep in mind that if none of these Candidates break 50 % on May 18th there will be a Run-Off.

Daniel G.

April 15, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates, Women | , | 1 Comment