State Employee Unions are the new bad guys?

After Halter’s loss in Arkansas….

I found this piece from a New York site….

About Indiana…..

Conservative politicians have a new enemy this election season: those evil, evil state worker unions. We see this in our own political discourse here in New York, but across the country it’s even stronger.Politico looked into the phenomenon, and…well, be thankful this isn’t Indiana.

“We have a new privileged class in America,” said Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, who rescinded state workers’ collective bargaining power on his first day in office in 2006. “We used to think of government workers as underpaid public servants. Now they are better paid than the people who pay their salaries.”

“It’s a part of a very large question the nation’s got to face,” Daniels told POLITICO in an interview. “Who serves whom here? Is the public sector—as some of us have always thought—there to serve the rest of society? Or is it the other way around?”

The current anti-public employee backlash is the result of a “perfect storm” of the housing market collapse, recession, and the subsequent budget crunch.

More…..A lot of comments….

Daniel with Part 1,2 and 3 of the May 18 Primary Primer…… A Viewers Guide for Kentucky, Arkansas, Pennsylvania and Oregon………..

Hello Folks!

Today is  “The Dogs” GIGANTIC Multiple State Primaries  ………..IT’S TIME to preview our “HOT RACES” for this May18th.

We’ll will have the “Special Election Night Results Thread” starting at 5pm ET on May 18th + GET READY FOR A POTENTIALLY VERY LONG NIGHT.

To keep EVERYBODY updated about those 4 States here is the Viewer Guide:

Kentucky (Bluegrass State): First Polls close at 6pm ET and all Polls will be closed at 7pm ET:

Two “Hot Races” here:

KY-SEN Republican Primary:

Establishment Candidate C. M. “Trey” Grayson vs. Challenger Dr. Randall “Rand” Paul

Will the Tea Parties claim another Scalp of Republicans? Republican Senate Minority Leader  Mitch McConnell (R-KY) handpicked Grayson for this Race, yet the Kentucky Secretary of State ran a horrible Campaign to date and didn’t really connect with Conservative Voters. Paul is leading in the Polls from anywhere between 10-15 Points.

I expect Paul to prevail over Grayson 45-35.

KY-SEN Democratic Primary:

Lt. Governor Daniel “Dr. Dan” Mongiardo vs. Attorney General Jack Conway

Mongiardo was endorsed by his Chief Governor Steve Beshear (D-KY) early on in this Campaign while Attorney General Conway ramped up the Washington Insider Endorsements from the DSCC and his two Kentucky Congressman John Yarmuth and Ben Chandler. Auditor “Crit” Luallen endorsed him also. Both, Chandler and Luallen themselves briefly considered jumping into this Race. Conway was pretty much flat-footed until the Final Weeks of the Campaign and closed the early Polling Gap with Mongiardo.
Will it be enough?

Toss-Up Race for me. Impossible to predict a Winner. Race could go into the later Hours of the Evening. I will re-evaluate this Race over the coming Days.

KY 6th Congressional District (Incumbent Democrat A. B. “Ben” Chandler):

6 Republicans vying to face Chandler in the Fall with former Attorney & Congressional Aide Andy Barr (R-KY) looking the strongest Candidate. Until the Defeat of Rep. Mollohan in WV Chandler had little to fear. Now that Mollohan was defeated and KY-6 borders WV-1 this Seat could move in more competitive Regions.

I expect Barr to prevail over his 5 Challengers.

Daniel G.

Note:…….There are two more parts to the May 18 preview….check below…….

Daniel’s Page #2…….Link……..Pennsylvana and Oregon

Daniel’s Page #3…….Link……..Arkansas

What’s this?……State Republicans tell national GOP: Keep out……..Success also brings trouble…..

From The Hill.….

Republicans in Arkansas and Nevada are telling the national GOP to stay out of their races as a pair of well-known politicians show renewed interest in running for the Senate

In both states, a field of candidates had already been going at it for months. And not only that, the current candidates have shown leads over wounded Sens. Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.).

The potential new GOP candidates — Arkansas Rep. John Boozman and Nevada Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki — are part of a recruiting surge that blossomed after Republican Scott Brown’s win in Massachusetts.

Former Nevada Gov. Bob List (R) told The Hill that he plans to call NRSC Chairman John Cornyn (Texas) to register his dismay.

“I’m going to encourage him to back off,” List said. “Krolicki would certainly not clear the field. All it will do is divide the party at the worst possible time.”

List said the committee hasn’t consulted the people it should have in Nevada.

“It really makes one wonder how they feel they can second-guess the people of Nevada on this,” he said. “People on the ground ought to be at least consulted.”

Sue Lowden’s campaign, which until now appeared to be the closest thing to an establishment favorite in the Nevada primary, also had some strong words for the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who has publicly encouraged Krolicki to join the race.

“The NRSC didn’t recruit Sue Lowden, and no senator recruited her,” Lowden campaign manager Robert Uithoven said.

“While there are some United States senators trying to influence who runs, we can say that it is Nevada voters who will decide this primary.”

Such statements have been boilerplate for outsider candidates from Florida to California to New Hampshire, where they have accused national Republicans of running interference. The GOP fields in Arkansas and Nevada appear to be headed down a similar road.

Arkansas state Sen. Gilbert Baker (R) is the early favorite in his primary and has raised the most money. But he was forced to bat back rumors this week that he might run for the House rather than the Senate if Boozman gets in, as appeared likely Wednesday.

A source close to Baker’s campaign said the NRSC needs to evaluate what Boozman’s entry would entail.

“We feel very confident that Gilbert Baker is the strongest candidate in the race, and I would hope that NRSC can see that,” the source said. “If they are continuing to recruit candidates at this late of an hour, I would ask that they would look at how this affects candidates so close to the filing deadline.”

Recruiting candidates has been a sticky situation for the NRSC ever since its support — perceived or actual — for certain candidates led to some ugly showdowns with conservatives. The committee has been tiptoeing gingerly around the process ever since.

It insists it’s not picking sides with Krolicki or Boozman, but that hasn’t been the perception. A source close to Krolicki suggested, whatever the public pronouncements, the NRSC would like Krolicki to get in.

“The NRSC does want him to run, but after Florida, they’re extremely gun-shy on primaries right now, especially one as volatile as this,” the source said. “We think the NRSC would prefer to have him in, and McCain’s endorsement is evidence of it.”

NRSC spokesman Brian Walsh said the committee is leaving things up to the voters and not getting behind any one candidate.

“Multiple Republican candidates in both races are capable of defeating them in November, and the NRSC is not endorsing in either of these races,” Walsh said.

— A.B.

The Dog has pointed out to Merlin …that Scott Brown’s election will cut two ways…..While Brown has shaken up the democrats…..the election of moderate Republicans is a precursor to an internal fight within the GOP…..In Florida Governor Crist is being thrown under the bus by a conservative…that will not happen in a lot of districts and states where GOP candidates cannot move to the right for fear that the democrats will nail them……

As with the democratic election of Barack Obama…sucess bring problems with it……

What's this?……State Republicans tell national GOP: Keep out……..Success also brings trouble…..

From The Hill.….

Republicans in Arkansas and Nevada are telling the national GOP to stay out of their races as a pair of well-known politicians show renewed interest in running for the Senate

In both states, a field of candidates had already been going at it for months. And not only that, the current candidates have shown leads over wounded Sens. Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.).

The potential new GOP candidates — Arkansas Rep. John Boozman and Nevada Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki — are part of a recruiting surge that blossomed after Republican Scott Brown’s win in Massachusetts.

Former Nevada Gov. Bob List (R) told The Hill that he plans to call NRSC Chairman John Cornyn (Texas) to register his dismay.

“I’m going to encourage him to back off,” List said. “Krolicki would certainly not clear the field. All it will do is divide the party at the worst possible time.”

List said the committee hasn’t consulted the people it should have in Nevada.

“It really makes one wonder how they feel they can second-guess the people of Nevada on this,” he said. “People on the ground ought to be at least consulted.”

Sue Lowden’s campaign, which until now appeared to be the closest thing to an establishment favorite in the Nevada primary, also had some strong words for the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who has publicly encouraged Krolicki to join the race.

“The NRSC didn’t recruit Sue Lowden, and no senator recruited her,” Lowden campaign manager Robert Uithoven said.

“While there are some United States senators trying to influence who runs, we can say that it is Nevada voters who will decide this primary.”

Such statements have been boilerplate for outsider candidates from Florida to California to New Hampshire, where they have accused national Republicans of running interference. The GOP fields in Arkansas and Nevada appear to be headed down a similar road.

Arkansas state Sen. Gilbert Baker (R) is the early favorite in his primary and has raised the most money. But he was forced to bat back rumors this week that he might run for the House rather than the Senate if Boozman gets in, as appeared likely Wednesday.

A source close to Baker’s campaign said the NRSC needs to evaluate what Boozman’s entry would entail.

“We feel very confident that Gilbert Baker is the strongest candidate in the race, and I would hope that NRSC can see that,” the source said. “If they are continuing to recruit candidates at this late of an hour, I would ask that they would look at how this affects candidates so close to the filing deadline.”

Recruiting candidates has been a sticky situation for the NRSC ever since its support — perceived or actual — for certain candidates led to some ugly showdowns with conservatives. The committee has been tiptoeing gingerly around the process ever since.

It insists it’s not picking sides with Krolicki or Boozman, but that hasn’t been the perception. A source close to Krolicki suggested, whatever the public pronouncements, the NRSC would like Krolicki to get in.

“The NRSC does want him to run, but after Florida, they’re extremely gun-shy on primaries right now, especially one as volatile as this,” the source said. “We think the NRSC would prefer to have him in, and McCain’s endorsement is evidence of it.”

NRSC spokesman Brian Walsh said the committee is leaving things up to the voters and not getting behind any one candidate.

“Multiple Republican candidates in both races are capable of defeating them in November, and the NRSC is not endorsing in either of these races,” Walsh said.

— A.B.

The Dog has pointed out to Merlin …that Scott Brown’s election will cut two ways…..While Brown has shaken up the democrats…..the election of moderate Republicans is a precursor to an internal fight within the GOP…..In Florida Governor Crist is being thrown under the bus by a conservative…that will not happen in a lot of districts and states where GOP candidates cannot move to the right for fear that the democrats will nail them……

As with the democratic election of Barack Obama…sucess bring problems with it……

Merlin’s line up for Arkansas………

Here is how I think it’ll come down

Governor

Beebe is staying in

Senate

Clark ve. Boozman

AR-2 (Berry)

Attorney General

Dustin McDaniel (R) will run. If he wins I don’t know.

AR-3 (Boozman)

Former Rep. Asa Hutchinson will run and be elected again to his old House Seat.

AR-2 (Snyder)

Lt. Governor Halter will run. In the end the Race will be very close.

Merlin

Merlin's line up for Arkansas………

Here is how I think it’ll come down

Governor

Beebe is staying in

Senate

Clark ve. Boozman

AR-2 (Berry)

Attorney General

Dustin McDaniel (R) will run. If he wins I don’t know.

AR-3 (Boozman)

Former Rep. Asa Hutchinson will run and be elected again to his old House Seat.

AR-2 (Snyder)

Lt. Governor Halter will run. In the end the Race will be very close.

Merlin

Merlin with another Quickie…..on the race in Arkansas…..

Hi Dog!

Things are really heating up in Arkansas.

Judging from a New York Times piece…..Rep. John Boozman (R-AR 3) seems ready to challenge Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln.

Quote from Rep. Boozman……

Representative John Boozman, Republican of Arkansas, said the results in Massachusetts had pushed him toward challenging Senator Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, a vulnerable Democrat. “If the people of Massachusetts are upset, you can imagine how the people of Arkansas feel,” Mr. Boozman said in a telephone interview Sunday night.

Merlin

Merlin Quick in…..a Arkansas House seat becoming open…..

Hi Dog!

An evening post for you…..

More bad News for the Democrats in Arkansas….. Rep. Marion Berry (D-AR 1) to announce Retirement tomorrow.

This will make the second Open Congressional Seat for Democrats in Arkansas to defend.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/house/marion-berry-to-retire.html

Merlin

Merlin with an Election Update for Arkansas…….Numerous Updates below!

Hello Dog!

Well, the real Pollsters such as Maxon-Dixon finally starting to poll the competitive Senate Races this year. Congrats to them getting of the huck and polling REAL Races. Usually I don’t take swipes at Pollster but I will do now with Rasmussen. Scott, please stop polling at a likely Voter Model for General Election Match-Ups at least until the Summer. It doesn’t give you credit doing so right now.

Mason-Dixon / Arkansas News Bureau Survey

Arkansas Senate 2010

Incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln  52 %
Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter  34 %
Undecided  12 %

Incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln  63 %
State Senate President Bob Johnson  22 %
Undecided  15 %

Dates: Jan. 18-20 / 303 Likely Primary Voters / MOE 6.0 Percentage Points. The Primary is May 18th. Strangely M/D didn’t poll a GOP Primary but that may well come out tomorrow.

General Election

State Senate Minority Leader Gilbert Baker (R)  43 %
Incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln (D)  39 %
Undecided  18 %

2004 Senate Candidate Jim Holt (R)  43 %
Incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln (D)  37 %
Undecided  20 %

Incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln (D)  40 %
Businessman Curtis Coleman (R)  39 %
Undecided  21 %

Incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln (D)  41 %
Retired Army Officer Conrad Reynolds (R)  38 %
Undecided  21 %

Incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln (D)  43 %
State Senator Kim Hendren (R)  38 %
Undecided  19 %

Incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln (D)  41 %
Businessman Tom Cox (R)  38 %
Undecided  21 %

Dates: Jan. 18-20 / 625 Registered Voters / MOE 4.0 Percentage Points

Full Results here:

http://arkansasnews.com/2010/01/22/poll-shows-lincoln-neck-and-neck-with-gop-challengers/

Merlin’s Take:

Lincoln is in a dire Position no question about it. Merlin hasn’t shifted the Race out of “Toss-Up” into “Lean Republican” mainly because the Republicans haven’t a unified Candidate so far.

To complicate things for Lincoln Merlin getting word of that the lone Republican is the Arkansas Congressional Delegation John Boozman looking at the Race. Boozman who has a very high reputation in Arkansas GOP Circles would likely start the GOP Primary as Frontrunner.

Merlin

Update:.…a hour after this post went up….Merlin got this…..

HUGE News for the GOP in Arkansas. Hotline On Call is just reporting that Rep. John Boozman (R-AR) is making Senate Calls.

Some Candidates in the Race already have assured Boozman that they’ll drop out in favor of him.

Boozman is expecting a Call from NRSC Chair John Cornyn (R-TX) and he’ll meet with Sen. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) on Monday morning.

From my perspective it looks like this is a done Deal.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/01/boozman_making.php

To put this in another Perspective:

Boozman is No. 2 in Popularity in Arkansas in GOP Circles just behind Mike Huckabee.

Lincoln is GONE with his pending Entry. She is not gonna beat Boozman for sure. ( Ok we will see….it’s a bit early )

You can see all comments on this post here:
http://politicaldog101.com/2010/01/22/merlin-with-an-election-update-for-arkansas/#comments

Another Update:……

With Boozman likely IN it’s very unlikely that Halter is challenging Lincoln in the Primary.

The only Democrat who could likely beat Boozman is current Governor Mike Beebe and he just announced at the beginning of the week he’s seeking Reelection.

The Democrats HAVE A MASSIVE Headache now.  (one Nevers knows…do they?….but this is NOT good news for the Dem’s)

Another Update……

Any Democrat who thinks that they can get Boozman’s House District should be thinking twice before entering.

According to Cook Arkansas 3 has a PVI R + 13 which means the District is 13 times more Republican than the Nation.

Another, Another Update:…..
It’s getting funny in Arkansas. Former Rep. Asa Hutchinson (R-AR) is now making calls gauging support for a Congressional Run in the 3rd District which Boozman would vacate when he runs for Senate.

Hutchinson ran for Governor in 2006 losing to current Governor Mike Beebe (D-AR)

http://www.talkbusiness.net/Weblogs/WeblogItemDetail.aspx?WebLogItemID=ea9dd535-43b4-4e89-bc39-18c052f8b613&WeblogID=cc24fc6b-d9a7-4647-b991-53b1cec2eec4

IF Hutchinson runs…. will this mean the Democratic headache goes away Merlin?……he, he, he

Merlin on the Survey USA.. AR-2, OH-1 and NY-1 House races…..

Ok….This is all Merilin’s House races….

Hi Dog!

Man, I’m so greatful Survey USA finally got of the hock this year, and did some House District Polls. I’m listing the newest Poll first…….

Indiana 9th

fmr. Rep. Mike Sodrel (R)  49 %
Rep. Baron Hill (D)  41 %
Undecided  10 %

New York 1st

Rep. Tim Bishop (D)  47 %
Randy Altschuler (R)  45 %
Undecided  8 %

Ohio 1st

fmr. Steve Chabot (R)  56 %
Rep. Steve Driehaus (D)  39 %
Undecided  5 %

Arkansas 2nd

Tim Griffin (R)  55 %
Rep. Vic Snyder (D)  39 %
Undecided  5 %

Note: One Day after this Poll came out Snyder announced his Retirement.

Merlin Take:

I talked a lot in my Ohio Projections about Hamilton County which is a Swing County. Well, OH-1 is in Hamilton County, and I’d have to say….. things are looking ominous for Driehaus. Without Obama on the Ballot, he’s unlikely to win.

Ditto for Rep. Baron Hill, who lives in a Swing District, and a potential Pence Candidacy would make matters worse.

Bishop is in the Race for his Political Life  also.

Full Results at http://elections.firedoglake.com

Merlin