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Daniel……Pennsylvania – 12 Special Election: Cook moves the Seat from “Toss-Up” into “Leans Republican”

Hello Folks!

Looks like the Pundits falling in Line for the Pennsylvania – 12 Special Election:

Charlie Cook just moved the Race from “Toss-Up” into “Leans Republican”

Cook’s Write-Up:

[ Critz and Burns ]

Three weeks out, most polls show the PA-12 race to replace deceased Democratic Rep. John Murtha a dead heat, with GOP businessman Tim Burns and former Murtha district director Mark Critz hovering around 40 percent of the vote. But polls don’t always paint the whole picture, and for special election watchers who think this is the same kind of animal we saw in NY-20 and NY-23 last year, it’s time to think again. In this climate and corner of Pennsylvania, Democrats’ path to 50 percent is considerably more uphill than Republicans’, and the GOP is well-positioned to snap its disheartening string of special election losses.

http://cookpolitical.com/races/house/chart.php

Daniel G.

Here’s a CNN piece on the race…….

Two hard-hitting new ads are heating up the Pennsylvania battle for the late Rep. Jack Murtha’s congressional seat.

Republican Tim Burns is facing off against Democrat Mark Critz in a the May 18 special election. The race has stepped up in intensity in recent weeks, with both campaigns as well as national party committees going up with television ads.

The Burns campaign came out Tuesday with a new television commercial that questions the ethics of Critz, a longtime aide to Murtha, a Democrat who represented the district for 18 terms until he passed away earlier this year.

“Mark Critz. A Washington bureaucrat bankrolled by Pelosi. Critz was investigated by the congressional ethics office and Critz was in charge of the finances for a company caught on paying their taxes,” says the narrator in the ad.

More……..….Check the comments…Daniel could be on to something..although the District was solid Democrat…..



April 27, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates | , , , | 1 Comment

Daniel……Pennsylvania – 12 Special Election: Cook moves the Seat from "Toss-Up" into "Leans Republican"

Hello Folks!

Looks like the Pundits falling in Line for the Pennsylvania – 12 Special Election:

Charlie Cook just moved the Race from “Toss-Up” into “Leans Republican”

Cook’s Write-Up:

[ Critz and Burns ]

Three weeks out, most polls show the PA-12 race to replace deceased Democratic Rep. John Murtha a dead heat, with GOP businessman Tim Burns and former Murtha district director Mark Critz hovering around 40 percent of the vote. But polls don’t always paint the whole picture, and for special election watchers who think this is the same kind of animal we saw in NY-20 and NY-23 last year, it’s time to think again. In this climate and corner of Pennsylvania, Democrats’ path to 50 percent is considerably more uphill than Republicans’, and the GOP is well-positioned to snap its disheartening string of special election losses.

http://cookpolitical.com/races/house/chart.php

Daniel G.

Here’s a CNN piece on the race…….

Two hard-hitting new ads are heating up the Pennsylvania battle for the late Rep. Jack Murtha’s congressional seat.

Republican Tim Burns is facing off against Democrat Mark Critz in a the May 18 special election. The race has stepped up in intensity in recent weeks, with both campaigns as well as national party committees going up with television ads.

The Burns campaign came out Tuesday with a new television commercial that questions the ethics of Critz, a longtime aide to Murtha, a Democrat who represented the district for 18 terms until he passed away earlier this year.

“Mark Critz. A Washington bureaucrat bankrolled by Pelosi. Critz was investigated by the congressional ethics office and Critz was in charge of the finances for a company caught on paying their taxes,” says the narrator in the ad.

More……..….Check the comments…Daniel could be on to something..although the District was solid Democrat…..



April 27, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates | , , , | 1 Comment

Daniel…..Cook rating…..Stupak Retirement Moves MI-01 from Solid Democratic to Toss Up……

This from Charlie Cook…..
Rep. Bart Stupak’s decision not to seek a tenth term in his northern Michigan district moves yet another previously safe Democratic seat into the Toss Up column and brings the number of highly vulnerable Democratic open seats to a dozen (still only about half the number of vulnerable open seats Democrats had to defend in 1994). During the health care fight, Stupak may have attracted more national notoriety than any representative in the Upper Peninsula ever has, but most of his critics were well outside his district and Stupak was very unlikely to lose the primary or general elections.

Without Stupak on the ballot, however, expect a free-for-all. This geographically huge district is as politically mixed as they come. In fact, no district voted more narrowly for President Obama in 2008. Here, deep roots in the community matter more than party affiliation. When Stupak (who is from Menominee on the Upper Peninsula) first won this seat in 1992, 54 percent of 1st CD residents lived on the Upper Peninsula. Due to population loss and redistricting, 53 percent of residents now live south of the Mackinac Bridge. Prior to Stupak’s election, Republicans had held this seat since 1966.

To keep this seat in the current political environment, Democrats will need to field a culturally conservative candidate with impeccable northern Michigan credentials. Look for plenty more Republicans besides the only current announced candidate, surgeon Dan Benishek, to take a look at the race. This seat moves from the Solid Democratic column to the Toss Up column.
Read on

http://cookpolitical.com/

Daniel

April 9, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates | , , | 4 Comments

Daniel……Charlie Cook makes some notable Governor & House Rating changes…….

Hello Dog!

One of the two leading Political Handicappers in the Nation Charlie Cook made some notable Chances on some Governor & House Races this morning
New Governor Race Ratings:

Maine Governor

“Likely Democrat” into “Lean Democrat” (Open Seat)

Massachusetts Governor

“Lean Democrat” into “Toss-Up” (Deval Patrick)

Michigan Governor

“Toss-Up” into “Lean Republican” (Open Seat)

Wyoming Governor

“Lean Republican” into “Likely Republican” (Open Seat)

Alaska Governor

“Likely Republican” into “Solid Republican” (Sean Parnell)

South Dakota Governor

“Solid Republican” into “Likely Republican” (Open Seat)

http://cookpolitical.com/governors

New House Ratings:

Arizona – 1

“Likely Democrat” into “Lean Democrat (Kilpatrick, D)

Florida – 24

“Lean Democrat” into “Toss-Up” (Kosmas, D)

Illinois – 11

“Likely Democrat” into “Lean Democrat” (Halvorson, D)

New York – 24

“Lean Democrat” into “Toss-Up” (Arcuri, D)

Oregon – 5

“Likely Democrat” into “Lean Democrat” (Schrader, D)

Pennsylvania – 3

“Likely Democrat” into “Lean Democrat” (Dahlkemper, D)

Virginia – 11

“Likely Democrat” into “Lean Democrat” (Connolly, D)

With these Changes Democrats NOW at least have to defend 54 Seats who are either in the Lean or Toss-Up Column.

http://cookpolitical.com/races/house/chart.php

Obviously the biggest price today for Republicans was the Michigan Governor Race. Republicans are now projected to win at least 4 Democratic Held State Houses (Wyoming, Kansas, Tennessee and Michigan).

Daniel G.

I’m still doubtful the dem’s lose the House…Call me crazy…..That’s my call…..

The Dog

March 25, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates, Women | , | 16 Comments

Daniel ……Hawaii 1st Special Election: Charlie Cook moves Race from “Leans Democrat” into “Toss-Up”…..

Hello Dog!

First of all many, many thanks to your Hawaii Article last week. It was superb. “The Dog” and I talked over this Race countlessly last week and WE BOTH came to the conclusion because of the two Democrats running splitting the Party Vote this Race should be a “Toss-Up”.

Well, we were right. It’s now a Toss-Up as Charlie Cook, 1 of the 4 leading Political Handicappers moved it from “Leans Democrat” into “Toss-Up” today.

http://cookpolitical.com/races/house/chart.php

Even Cilizza had a lengthy Article in his House Line last Friday saying Democrats should be worried. I’m sure the Dog is worried now too.

I’ll promise you one thing:

There will be at least one more Poll out from Mason-Dixon as they polled this Race in January.

Here are the Candidates Websites:

http://www.edcase.com/
http://www.hanabusa2010.com/index
http://www.djou.com/

Daniel G.

Thanks for the compliment…the real question there will be…… does the dem’s get someone to drop out?

The Dog

March 19, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Politics, Polls, Updates, Women | , , | 7 Comments

Daniel ……Hawaii 1st Special Election: Charlie Cook moves Race from "Leans Democrat" into "Toss-Up"…..

Hello Dog!

First of all many, many thanks to your Hawaii Article last week. It was superb. “The Dog” and I talked over this Race countlessly last week and WE BOTH came to the conclusion because of the two Democrats running splitting the Party Vote this Race should be a “Toss-Up”.

Well, we were right. It’s now a Toss-Up as Charlie Cook, 1 of the 4 leading Political Handicappers moved it from “Leans Democrat” into “Toss-Up” today.

http://cookpolitical.com/races/house/chart.php

Even Cilizza had a lengthy Article in his House Line last Friday saying Democrats should be worried. I’m sure the Dog is worried now too.

I’ll promise you one thing:

There will be at least one more Poll out from Mason-Dixon as they polled this Race in January.

Here are the Candidates Websites:

http://www.edcase.com/
http://www.hanabusa2010.com/index
http://www.djou.com/

Daniel G.

Thanks for the compliment…the real question there will be…… does the dem’s get someone to drop out?

The Dog

March 19, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Politics, Polls, Updates, Women | , , | 7 Comments

Follow-up on the MyDD and Charlie Cook discussion on the House in 2010…..

From Jonathan Singer over @ Mydd.Com as a follow up to this post.….

See full size image

Just a few weeks ago, Charlie Cook said that it’s “very hard to come up with a scenario where Democrats don’t lose the House.” The quote may seem familiar; I have referenced it a couple times in recent days.

If Cook is still looking for such a scenario, the respected pollster Ipsos, surveying the country for McClatchy newspapers, has provided it:

Looking ahead to November’s elections, 50 percent said they’d vote for Democratic candidates if the election were today, while 40 percent said they’d vote for Republicans.

The Democrats’ 10-point generic ballot lead in the Ipsos-McClatchy poll represents a net improvement of 3 percentage points since early November, a move within the survey’s margin of error.

It is worth noting that these numbers do not look the latest trend estimate from Pollster.com, which actually gives the GOP a narrow 43.0 percent to 42.4 percent lead in a nationwide race for Congress. However, that narrow Republican advantage is the result of the plethora of data from a single pollster: Rasmussen Reports. When these surveys are excluded, the numbers shift more than 6 points towards the Democrats, with a Democratic edge of 47.1 percent to 41.5 percent.

So there definitely is a universe in which it is “very hard to come up with a scenario where Democrats don’t lose the House”: that of Rasmussen polling. And that may be the reality on the ground come November. But in the reality represented by the composite of all other polling, including this latest Ipsos survey, the Democrats’ goose is not nearly cooked.

March 4, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Media, Other Things, Politics, Updates | , , , | Leave a comment

MyDD and Charlie Cook discuss his call on the Democrats chances in 2010…..

MyDD’s Jonathan Singer exchanged thoughts with Charlie Cook on his call that Democrats could lose up to 30 seats in the House in November’s mid-term elections……

From Singer……

The past few weeks and months I have been writing quite a bit about my view, contrary to those held by many inside the Beltway and Charlie Cook specifically, that the Democrats’ control of the United States House of Representatives is all but lost at present. Don’t get me wrong, I am not so obtuse to believe that the political environment favors the Democrats. But I just don’t buy the notion that the Republicans are on the verge of retaking the House in the upcoming midterm elections.

Yesterday I wrote a post noting internal Democratic polling showing one of the red state Democratic incumbents the Cook Political Report currently rates in the “tossup” category leading by margins well in excess of 20 points against named challengers. “If the Republicans can’t even be competitive in an R+16 district featuring a freshman Democrat in a race Cook now labels as ‘a tossup,'” I asked, “how, exactly, are they supposed to win back the 40 seats they need to regain a majority in the chamber?”

Charlie has been kind enough to respond with four comments on my post. I have included the full text of each comment below the fold, for those interested. Here are a few grafs culled from these comments that seem to be representative.

Jonathan, I think what this poll suggests is that Democrats in tough districts who have opposed the Democratic Congressional leadership and the President on just about every important matter, have a decent chance of surviving.

My job, having started the Cook Political Report in 1984, is to call them as I see them. We saw a big wave coming in 1994 but underestimated it then. In 2006 we saw one and nailed it. We saw signs of problems and began writing and talking about it last summer and see little sign that we are wrong. If more Democrats had the cover that Bright had, maybe we would be.

Yes, we have been writing “Dems in trouble” for about eight months now, but it isn’t much different from when we were writing that Republicans were in trouble during the 2006 and 2008 cycles. And Republicans were in fact in trouble. Our job is to watch races individually and look for trends. If the partisans for the side on the short end of the trends don’t like it, they typically attack the messenger. you can be sure that Republicans weren’t happy with what we were writing in the months leading up to the 2006 election, but we were right.

All of the points that Charlie makes are fair…….

What I would like to note, however, is that while I don’t dispute the particular points that Charlie is making, I still don’t buy his overall thesis. This isn’t the first time that the two of us haven’t seen eye-to-eye. The last time he came on the site to comment on one of my posts, back in December 2007, it was to defendthe projection made by his publication that the Democrats would pick up between two and eight seats in the House in the 2008 election — a projection I believed to be too dour towards the Democrats, about whom I wrote, “I’d be surprised if [they] didn’t net a pick up of at least 10-15 seats in the House next fall.” As it turned out, the Democrats netted a 21-seat pickup in the House that fall. In May 2006, hecommented similarly, downplaying my reading of his House race analysis as a major shift towards the Democrats (while, in fairness, also saying “one could reasonably say that the House is close to 50-50, perhaps a bit better for Democrats”). Earlier that year he stopped by MyDD to comment on a post I wrote questioning whether the Democrats would necessarily be worse off in the event that GOP Congressman Bob Ney retired instead of running for reelection. Cook wrote, “If you are a Democrat, you need to really hope that Bob Ney does NOT retire.” In the end, Ney did retire, but the Democratic nominee, Zack Space, won by a 24-point margin nonetheless.

For the entire piece.……

And the Dog also believes that Cook’s numbers are too high…...

March 3, 2010 Posted by | Counterpoints, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Updates | , , , , , | 10 Comments

Charlie Cook hedges his bets on Massachsetts senate race……with slight Brown lead….

Here’s his latest call…….

January 17, 2010
Massachusetts Special Election Update This past Thursday, January 14, The Cook Political Report moved the open Massachusetts Senate seat rating from Lean Democrat to Toss Up, having moved it from Solid Democrat to Lean Democratic on January 7. We continue to see this race as very much of a Toss Up, with Republican state Sen. Scott Brown holding onto a very narrow, single-digit lead over Democratic state Attorney General Martha Coakley. Given the vagaries of voter turnout, particularly in lower participation level special elections, this race could still go either way, but we put a finger on the scale for Brown. Last minute Democratic attacks on Brown have driven his negatives up some and slightly diminished the incredible intensity of support that Brown enjoyed, but it looks more likely than not to hold.

Note:…..The Dog added the italics……

Note#2.……The Dog thinks he’s trying to have it both ways…..he, he, he……

January 17, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Government, Media, Men, Politics, Polls, Updates | , , | 12 Comments

The Charlie Cook read on the 2010 Senate races……

Here’s the current outlook for the United States Senate 2010 races from the Cook Political Repirt….

December 2, 2009 Posted by | Media, Politics | , , | 12 Comments