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Abbreviated Pundit Round-up from Dailykos….11/7/10…The GOP won, Nevada, Rasmussen, Lame duck’s, Linda McMahon, CT Gov

by DemFromCT

Sunday opinion.

Ezra Klein:

The votes are (mostly) counted. The Republicans have clearly and decisively won. But did the Democrats actually lose?

They lost the election, certainly. And many of them lost their jobs. But the point of legislating isn’t job security. It’s legislation. And on that count the members of the 111th Congress succeeded wildly, even historically.

Didn’t someone say “elections have consequences”? The 2008 one did.

Mark Blumenthal:

In Nevada, polls predicted the wrong winner of this week’s Senate election. Or did they? While public media polls in late October consistently gave a slight advantage to Republican Senate challenger Sharron Angle, the internal campaign polls gave Democrat Harry Reid the edge and campaign pollsters on both sides attribute the difference to a combination of greater care in modeling the demographics of the electorate, more persistence in reaching all sampled voters and the added value of registered voter lists.

Nate (just a blogger) Silver continues to take apart Rasmussen.

Rasmussen Reports didn’t do any of these three things [to address pre-election GOP bias]. Its pollsters didn’t provide cogent explanations of why their results were different; the only explanation they offered — that it had to do with their likely voter model — turned out not to hold water. Rasmussen also didn’t “fix” its house effect: it was quite persistent throughout the whole cycle. And their polls did quite poorly, rather than extremely well, on Election Day.

 

Nor has Rasmussen been any more willing to engage in a discussion about the issues in its polling after the fact. When I asked Scott Rasmussen for comment Friday morning, he wrote me a terse e-mail that said he “can’t imagine any need to respond,” and he has been similarly dismissive with other reporters.

Rasmussen doesn’t respond to bloggers. Or the NY Times. And how this plays out will be interesting in terms of whether the NYT connection helps Nate any (he was doing fine without it.)

Frank Rich:

President Obama can make a comeback, but only if he figures out what he has to come back from and where he has to go.

Don’t worry. That’s what we’re here for.

NYT Editorial:

If the lame duck Congress is responsible — a big if — it will require the wealthy to pay more and shield the vulnerable from increases.

Everyone else would keep their tax breaks in the near term, but be put on notice that fixing the budget will require tax increases and spending cuts as the economy recovers. Then the next Congress must pick up where the lame ducks leave off, by undertaking broad tax-and-spending reform to bring revenues in line with outlays.

Indulge me. Because I live in true blue CT, the Land of Steady Habits:

CT Post:

When a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate sinks $50 million into a losing campaign, it’s natural for the less-monied runners-up for the GOP nomination to wonder if they would have performed better.

Neither uttered the specific words “I told you so,” but in separate interviews former U.S. Rep. Rob Simmons and economist/radio host Peter Schiff maintained they were better candidates than wrestling executive Linda McMahon.

Given that the media savvy McMahon was surprisingly unlikeable (43/50 fav/unfav in the last Q-poll), we have seen it’s hard to separate the nasty campaign from the candidate. Simmons would have been stronger, Schiff would have been a national joke.

Colin McInroe on the CT Gov election:

It started on Tuesday night when I realized that the city of Bridgeport, although dimly aware that there was some kind of election thingy happening, had not obtained anywhere near enough ballots. This is like inviting 25 people over to your house when you have a six-pack of beer in the refrigerator.

Their back-up plan, I believe was to allow people to circle the entrée that most resembled their favorite candidate on a Cheesecake Factory menu and put that through the scanner, but this is, strictly speaking, not considered standard electoral practice.

New Haven Register editorial:

A win is a win. A day after Dan Malloy is inaugurated as the state’s next governor, it won’t matter if he won by one vote or 100,000. But, Malloy’s apparent squeaker of a victory is certainly no mandate. He barely beat his Republican opponent, Tom Foley, who did far better than the rest of the Republican ticket in attracting unaffiliated voters.

 

November 7, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Government, Media, Politics, Updates | , , | Leave a comment

Midday open thread @ Dailykos…..

by kos


  • There are 26 days until the November 2 elections. Early voting is now taking place in AlaskaArizona,CaliforniaGeorgiaIndianaIowaMaineNew MexicoOhioSouth DakotaVermontWisconsin, and Wyoming.Virginia allows early absentee voting under certain circumstances — check here and see if you qualify.
  • Sarah Palin’s approval rating: 22 percent. I’d love for her to get the nomination, but she won’t run. She’s too lazy to do the work.She’ll just lead people on for as long as possible in order to stay relevant, on TV, and getting the big speaking gigs.
  • The American Taliban is losing the culture wars:

    Polls this year have found that more Americans favor allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally than did so just last year. In two polls conducted over the past few months, based on interviews with more than 6,000 adults, 42% favor same-sex marriage while 48% are opposed. In polls conducted in 2009, 37% favored allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally and 54% were opposed. For the first time in 15 years of Pew Research Center polling, fewer than half oppose same-sex marriage.

    gay marriage trends

    That’s what progress looks like!

  • Lou Dobbs, hypocrite:

    In Lou Dobbs’s heyday at CNN, when he commanded more than 800,000 viewers and a reported $6 million a year for “his fearless reporting and commentary,” in the words of former CNN president Jonathan Klein, the host became notorious for his angry rants against “illegal aliens.” But Dobbs reserved a special venom for the employers who hire them, railing against “the employer who is so shamelessly exploiting the illegal alien and so shamelessly flouting US law” and even proposing, on one April 2006 show, that “illegal employers who hire illegal aliens” should face felony charges […]

    But with his relentless diatribes against “illegals” and their employers, Dobbs is casting stones from a house—make that an estate—of glass. Based on a yearlong investigation, including interviews with five immigrants who worked without papers on his properties, The Nation and the Investigative Fund at The Nation Institute have found that Dobbs has relied for years on undocumented labor for the upkeep of his multimillion-dollar estates and the horses he keeps for his 22-year-old daughter, Hillary, a champion show jumper.

  • RNC pushes study that shows that Democrat’s tax plan isbetter for Americans than the Republican one.
  • CA-Sen: Crazy ass spending:

    New campaign finance reports show that Whitman has picked up the pace of her round-the-clock spending rate since her last filing and has now lavished a 24/7 average of nearly $10,000 an hour since announcing her candidacy in February 2009…….. More….

 

October 7, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Counterpoints, Open thread, Politics, Updates | | Leave a comment

Abbreviated Pundit Round-up from Dailykos……

From DemFromCT @ Dailykos...

Sunday funnies.

Brown v Whitman, via LA Times:

“Let’s be sympathetic and let’s really empathize with the millions of people who are in the shadows and you want to keep them in the shadows and now you’re trying to evade responsibility,” he said. “Don’t run for governor if you can’t stand up on your own two feet and say, ‘Hey I made a mistake, I’m sorry, let’s go on from here.’ You have blamed her, blamed me, blamed the left, blamed the unions but you don’t take accountability.”

NY Times:

Republicans carry substantial advantages as they move into the final month of the fall campaign, but the resilience of vulnerable Democrats is complicating Republican efforts to lock down enough seats to capture the House and take control of the unsettled electoral battleground.

Ari Melber:

Indeed, historians may stress how the tea party rose at exactly the same time that traditional print journalism crashed into the earth like an asteroid, instantly sinking underground and far from political relevance.  Some already are.

At the panel, Harvard historian Jill Lepore, who just published a book on the role of contested historical narratives in tea party organizing, said the “disequilibrium” created by newspapers’ demise is fueling a new type of politics.

“Our political and newspaper culture were born at the same time,” Lepore noted, pointing to the partisan papers founded to oppose John Adams.  With the decline of print, she proposed, comes a decline in local news coverage, a demise of the local “form of community,” and ultimately a distortion of “proportion” – where people have less sense of which developments are actually significant.  We may even look back on this period, Lepore suggested, and realize that we spent far too much time on the tea party. Coming from someone who just wrote a book on the subject, that’s saying something.

Newsweek………...More….

October 3, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Media, Men, Politics, Taxes, The Economy, Updates, Women | , | Leave a comment

Daniel…..Research 2000 parts ways with DailyKos…..

Hello Folks!

Man, I’m glad this has happened. KOS parted ways with his Polling Company Research 2000.

Fewer work for me as I don’t have to post KOS Polls in my Polling Summaries anymore.

Read the Kos Write-Up:
I have decided to part ways with our current pollster, and will be looking for a new polling partner to finish out this election cycle. The decision was made, in part, on the results of Nate Silver’s new pollster rankings.

Research 2000’s past results aren’t actually as bad as people will try and make them out to be. In fact, if there’s one thing that’s striking about the chart, is how closely clumped together those pollsters actually are. The difference in accuracy between the best and worst pollsters (omitting Zogby’s genuinely crappy internet poll) isn’t very big. As Nate told me via email as he walked me through the results:

The absolute difference in the pollster ratings is not very great. Most of the time, there is no difference at all.

And while many will focus on R2K’s misses in Alabama and Arkansas, fact is they nailed several others, like the Hawaii special, the Nevada primaries, NY-23, etc. Every pollster has hits and misses, and R2K was no different. But in an industry measured in percentages, fact is they underperformed their peers.

I believe in accountability, in accuracy, and in making sure we provide the absolute best information not just to this wonderful community, but also to the outside world. As such, Daily Kos will be on polling hiatus the next several months as we evaluate our options and decide how to best proceed.

Daniel G.

Nate got’m …Huh?

June 9, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Politics, Polls, Updates | , , , | 1 Comment

Daniel……DailyKos…..Lincoln still up over Halter in the Arkansas Senate Democratic Primary………..

New DKOS/R2000 Poll has Lincoln up 45-33 over Halter.

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2010/4/14/AR/473

From the DailyKos piece…..

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 4/12-14. Likely voters. MoE 4% (3/22-24 results)

Democratic primary MoE 5%

Blanche Lincoln (D) 45 (44)

Bill Halter (D) 33 (31)
Other 6 (0)
Undecided 16 (25)

Favorable/Unfavorable/No opinion among Democrats

Lincoln 65/31/4 (62/34/6)
Halter 69/11/23 (68/10/27)

That +1 gain for Halter in the horserace is well within the poll’s margin of error, and presents nothing more than float. The favorabilities are actually quite the story — the Lincoln campaign has been relentlessly negative on Halter, yet none of that mud (all of it ridiculous and false) has tainted Halter. He’s shrugged off all attacks with nary a problem.

On the other side, Lincoln has faced a barrage of negative ads from Halter allies in labor, yet those have done little to damage Lincoln. In fact, she’s up a net +6 in her favorabilities. Apparently, Arkansas Democrats aren’t paying too much attention to the negativity.

On the other hand, we’ve seen “other” shoot up from nothing two weeks ago, to six percent this week. That “other” is D.C. Morrison, who scored 10 percent in a poll for Arkansas business publication Talk Business. Morrison is a no-name conservadem spending no money in the race. But in a race turning nasty, he’s starting to pick up support by virtue of not being the other two candidates.

More……..

Listen Folks…..This seat is probably lost to the Democrats……..

I just don’t see Halter getting a win here…..He’s probably going to inch up on Lincoln…..and the primary could actually be close…..but I see this seat just about gone with either of the two….

April 15, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Updates, Women | , , , , | 6 Comments

Daniel…..Washington Senate: Markxist Daily Kos Poll puts Murray ahead over Rossi by 11 and Reichert by 8……

Hello Dog!

The ULTRA LEFTISTS from Daily Kos partnering with Research 2000 released a new Poll last Night showing Incumbent Senator Patty Murray (D-WA) leading Congressman Dave Reichert (R-WA) by 8 and ’04 & ’08 Gubernatorial Nominee Dino Rossi (R-WA) by 11 Points. I don’t believe it. Murray maybe up a bit but not by 11 in this Climate.

Meanwhile Dino Rossi (R-WA) has made pretty loud noises this week that he is seriously weighing a run against Murray. Hotline On Call reported this yesterday. Rossi also spoke with RNC Chairman Michael Steele (R-MD) and NRSC Chairman John Cornyn (R-TX) this week.

Research 2000 / Daily Kos Survey

Washington Senate 2010

General Election

Incumbent Senator Patty Murray (D)  51 %
U. S. Rep. Dave Reichert (R)  43 %
Undecided  6 %

Incumbent Senator Patty Murray (D)  52 %

’04/’08 Governor Candidate Dino Rossi (R)  41 %
Undecided  7 %

Incumbent Senator Patty Murray (D)  54 %
State Senator Tom Benton (R)  35 %
Undecided  11 %

Note: KOS also polled Republican Paul Akers (R-WA) who would be the weakest Candidate but he’ll not run.

Major Candidates Websites:

http://www.pattymurray.com/
http://www.bentonforsenate.com/

Full Results of the Poll including Candidates Favorables can be found here:

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2010/3/24/WA/461

Analysis:

I don’t believe this Poll. BTW I also don’t believe the RAS Poll which had Rossi up 2 at the beginning of the month. Considering that Silver says R2000 is screwing around 4.5 Percentage Points to the left the Results are likely somewhat in between Murray up 11 (DKOS) and Rossi up 2 (RAS). I think Murray is up 5 or so right now. The Campaign in this State hasn’t even begun so Rossi would certainly make this Race a competitive one should he pull the trigger.

Daniel G.

You know Daniel I just posted this up…I never really read it...I can see why you don’t like it….Patty Murray comes out fine here contrary to the Rasmussen lean…..we’ll have to see what follows……

March 26, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Counterpoints, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, Politics, Polls, Updates | , , , | Leave a comment

Obama and Pelosi get a bounce in the polls….Boehner does not…….

From PolitcalWire…..

Obama Gets Small Health Care Bounce

The latest DailyKos/Research 2000 weekly tracking poll shows President Obama receiving a slight bounce in his favorability rating — up five points — since signing a health care reform bill earlier this week.

For comparison, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is up three points while House Minority Leader John Boehner is down five points. Congressional Democrats are up three points while Congressional Republicans are down seven points.

Read more: http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/03/26/obama_gets_small_health_care_bounce.html#ixzz0jIbanB24

I have no comment…..He, he, he…

March 26, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Government, Healthcare, Law, Media, Men, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Updates | , , , , | Leave a comment

Merlin on the Texas Governor GOP Primary and General…..

Hi Dog!

Yes I know we already have a lot of those Surveys but here is another Texas Republican Governor Primary Survey.

Research 2000 / DailyKos Survey

Texas Governor 2010

Republican Primary

Incumbent Governor Rick Perry  42 %
Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison  30 %
Debra Medina  17 %
Undecided  11 %

General Election

Incumbent Governor Rick Perry (R)  46 %
former Houston Mayor Bill White (D)  42 %
Undecided  12 %

Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison (R)  47 %
former Houston Mayor Bill White (D)  41 %
Undecided  12 %

GOP Tea Party Activist Debra Medina (R)  44 %
former Houston Mayor Bill White (D)  43 %
Undecided  13 %

Full Results can be found here:

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2010/2/10/TX/444

Merlin’s Observation:

There will be many more Primary Polls coming in the next 2 weeks.

Ah, Perry still not above 50%….The Dog smells a run-off in the making!

Merlin

February 13, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDogs Merlin, Politics, Polls, Updates | , , | 6 Comments

Merlin on Indiana Senate Race and the entry of Dan Coats…..

Hello Dog!


This surely will make you happy. A new Statewide Survey in the Hoosier State shows Incumbent Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) has BIG leads over 2 potential Republican Opponents.

Research 2000 / DailyKos Survey

Indiana Senate 2010

General Election

Incumbent Senator Evan Bayh (D)  55 %
former Senator Daniel Ray Coats (R)  35 %
Undecided  10 %

Incumbent Senator Evan Bayh (D)  53 %
former U. S. Rep. John N. Hostettler (R)  37 %
Undecided  10 %

Favorables

President Obama

Favorable  46 %
Unfavorable  49 %

Governor Mitch Daniels (R)

Favorable  56 %
Unfavorable  34 %

Senator Richard Lugar (R)

Favorable  64 %
Unfavorable  29 %

Senator Evan Bayh (D)

Favorable  61 %
Unfavorable  33 %

The Full Poll can be seen here:  http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2010/2/10/IN/443

Merlin’s Observation:

This Poll is highly, highly dubious to me especially because Research 2000 claims Bayh has a 40-Point lead!?!? with Independent Voters. That’s simply not true, it can’t be. Every other National or Statewide Poll is showing Indies moving away from Democrats.

There is one highly respected Pollster who hopefully starts polling this Race very shortly: The Iowa Selzer & Co. Polling Company. They nailed the 2008 Presidential Contest right on the notch for Obama.

Merlin

First of all look at Bayh’s favorables…….

The Dog isn’t happy for the Democrats in this race…The Dog has simply said from the start that Dan Coats is not a good choice to run against Evan Bayh…..other polls will confirm this….Coats has not been in politics for a decade..he has led a good life that makes problems for someone who re-enters politics…. which has an unrealistic  expectation for people to live up to……

February 11, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Government, Media, PoliticalDog Calls, PoliticalDogs Merlin, Politics, Polls, Updates | , , , , , | 3 Comments

Merlin with another New Hampshire Poll……

Hello Dog!

Finally we’ve gotten the first Poll on the Republican New Hampshire Primary and it shows although Ex Attorney Genral Kelly A. Ayotte leads her lead isn’t all that big. Ayotte also leads Hodes in a potential General Election Match-Up while Hodes leads the other two Republican declared Candidates Lamontagne & Binnie by 10 Points. Meanwhile Governor John Lynch is cruising to Reelection.

Research 2000 / DailyKos Survey

New Hampshire Senate 2010

Republican Primary

former Attorney General Kelly A. Ayotte  36 %
Ovide Marc Lamontagne  27 %
William H. “Bill” Binnie  4 %
Undecided  33 %

General Election

former Attorney General Kelly A. Ayotte (R)  46 %
U. S. Rep. Paul W. Hodes (D)  39 %
Undecided  11 %

U. S. Rep. Paul W. Hodes (D)  46 %
Ovide Marc Lamontagne (R)  36 %
Undecided  13 %

U. S. Rep. Paul W. Hodes (D)  45 %
William H. “Bill” Binnie (R)  35 %
Undecided  15 %

New Hampshire Governor 2010

Incumbent Governor John Lynch (D)  59 %
Businessman Jack Kimball (R)  13 %
Undecided  26 %

Full Results can be found here:

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2010/2/23/NH/440

Note: The Republican U. S. Senate Primary Poll is the first one we’ve got so far.

Interesting Thought:

As the Dog mentioned earlier WMUR / UNH will release Results for those Races next week.

Merlin

February 5, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDogs Merlin, Politics, Polls, Updates | , , , | 4 Comments