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Q poll……Crist +4 in Florida…..

From Talkandpolitics….


Qunnipiac Poll: Crist v. Rubio 37-33, Meek at 17.

Source.

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June 9, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Government, Media, Men, Politics, Polls, TalkandPolitcs, Updates | , , , , | 12 Comments

Daniel…..Florida Senate: Mason-Dixon confirms Rasmussen; Governor Charlie Crist (I-FL) leads by 6 Points…..

Hello Folks!

“THE BEST” State Pollster down in the Sunshine State finally released a Survey with Crist as Independent confirming the earlier Rasmussen Reports Survey from this week showing Florida Governor Charlie Crist (I-FL) clinging to a 6-Point lead.

Orlando Sentinel / Mason-Dixon Survey

Florida Senate 2010

The poll, done by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for news clients, shows Crist with 38 percent among likely Florida voters.

Incumbent Governor Charlie Crist (I)  38 %

Former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio (R)  32 %
U. S. Rep. Kendrick B. Meek (D)  19 %
Undecided  11 %

Major Candidates Campaign Websites:

http://charliecrist.com/
http://www.marcorubio.com/
http://www.kendrickmeek.com/

Link:

http://www2.tbo.com/content/2010/may/06/061647/poll-no-party-crist-takes-early-lead-over-rubio-me/news-breaking/

Analysis:

This is BIG. Mason-Dixon confirming RAS. It really looks like Crist is in the lead here. I’m not that all surprised. We’ll see how long this will last. Nevertheless WE NOW HAVE A FIGHT on our hands. Let’s stand up. Donate to Marco. We can’t allow the Flip-Flopper to take away OUR SENATE SEAT.

Daniel G.

The Dog will now concede that baring anything major…this race is between Rubio and Crist…..

The Dog can live with a Crist win…Sorry Kendrick…..CD was right…you have no chance……..
A warning Here…..Crist is likely to a line himself with the Democrats if he wins………
Obama WILL go to bat for him……
Daniel I told ya Rubio is now stuck to the right…..

And we haven’t heard a peep from him for a while, huh?

May 6, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, PoliticalDogs Merlin, Politics, Polls, Updates | , , , | 9 Comments

Nate Silver doesn’t think Crist has a good chance to win in Florida……Even as an Indie……

Nate Silver @ FiveThirtySeven …who is longwinded…..breaks it down to this…..

By switching out of the party Charlie Crist loses what left of his moderate GOP base and money……

Also…..He feels ( I agree with him ) that Rubio will immediately track to the middle…..trying keep his right support with him ..thus  cementing a win against Meek….

This same thing happened with Obama in the primaries…where he got the left in Iowa and came back to the center for the rest of the states……

This from PoliticalWire who got it from FiveThirtySeven……....

Crist’s Chances

Nate Silver looks at the odds of Florida Gov. Charlie Crist winning the U.S. Senate seat in Florida by running as an independent. The outlook isn’t pretty:

“Right now, Crist is preferred to Rubio by about one-third of Republican registered voters, according to Quinnipiac. But, even though there are some moderate Republicans in Florida (38 percent of the Republican presidential primary electorate in 2008 described themselves as moderate or liberal), it’s asking a lot of a Republican identifier to continue to support a candidate who has just ditched the party — particularly when it seems to be motivated by expediency rather than ideological resolve (Crist’s lack of grivatas, even when compared with someone like Arlen Specter or Joe Lieberman, will hurt him here). Plus, Rubio, already very well liked by conservatives, will get to do a bit of a victory lap as the sole viable candidate on the primary ballot, and can immediately turn his attention to broadening his appeal among party moderates. This might not even require all that much effort; Rubio’s favorability rating among Republicans is 67-7 (!) according to Quinnipiac, and while quite conservative, he seems from a distance to avoid coming across as any kind of dangerous extremist.”

Read more: http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/04/22/crists_chances.html#ixzz0lwt0Aawj

April 23, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Updates | , , | 1 Comment

Nate Silver doesn't think Crist has a good chance to win in Florida……Even as an Indie……

Nate Silver @ FiveThirtySeven …who is longwinded…..breaks it down to this…..

By switching out of the party Charlie Crist loses what left of his moderate GOP base and money……

Also…..He feels ( I agree with him ) that Rubio will immediately track to the middle…..trying keep his right support with him ..thus  cementing a win against Meek….

This same thing happened with Obama in the primaries…where he got the left in Iowa and came back to the center for the rest of the states……

This from PoliticalWire who got it from FiveThirtySeven……....

Crist’s Chances

Nate Silver looks at the odds of Florida Gov. Charlie Crist winning the U.S. Senate seat in Florida by running as an independent. The outlook isn’t pretty:

“Right now, Crist is preferred to Rubio by about one-third of Republican registered voters, according to Quinnipiac. But, even though there are some moderate Republicans in Florida (38 percent of the Republican presidential primary electorate in 2008 described themselves as moderate or liberal), it’s asking a lot of a Republican identifier to continue to support a candidate who has just ditched the party — particularly when it seems to be motivated by expediency rather than ideological resolve (Crist’s lack of grivatas, even when compared with someone like Arlen Specter or Joe Lieberman, will hurt him here). Plus, Rubio, already very well liked by conservatives, will get to do a bit of a victory lap as the sole viable candidate on the primary ballot, and can immediately turn his attention to broadening his appeal among party moderates. This might not even require all that much effort; Rubio’s favorability rating among Republicans is 67-7 (!) according to Quinnipiac, and while quite conservative, he seems from a distance to avoid coming across as any kind of dangerous extremist.”

Read more: http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/04/22/crists_chances.html#ixzz0lwt0Aawj

April 23, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Updates | , , | 1 Comment

Charlie Crist has everyone waiting……..

Until he lets the world know if he’s stay with the party and presumably drop his bid for the Senate and run for the office he has…..Governor of Florida…….

or

Decides to throw the dice and run as an Independent for the Senate….

We’ll all just running in place……

If he chooses to run as an independent, Mr. Crist would be betting that the prevailing political logic of the moment is wrong — that despite the Tea Party’s rise, the broader electorate still wants the pragmatic approach that propelled Barack Obama to victory here.

Leading a campaign that would most likely lack major fund-raising and a party’s street-level support, Mr. Crist would be running in the hope of turning out “the silent majority” thatRichard M. Nixon identified in 1969. Experts say the governor’s odds are long, but not impossible.

“There is a huge gap between the leadership, at both the elite and grass-roots level, and your mainstream Republican voter in this state,” said Daniel A. Smith, director of the political campaigning program at the University of Florida.

Washington Republicans, Mr. Smith added, may be reading Florida entirely wrong: “In many ways, what Americans want is pragmatism.”

Mr. Crist has only hinted at his intentions. He has until April 30 to decide, and some of his closest confidants — including his former campaign manager, George LeMieux, whom Mr. Crist appointed to the Senate when Mel Martinez retired — say he has not tipped his hand.

Many Republican officials at the county level describe the governor as hunkered down. But a trickle of clues have made a Crist run with no party affiliation look more likely.

More……..

April 22, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Updates | , | 4 Comments

Daniel……IF the Southern Political Report (Usually a pretty reliable Source) is to be believed Florida Governor Charlie Crist (R-FL) will continue his Senate Run as Independent…..

Hello Dog!

Here is a new Article on Crist.

From the Southern Political Report:
SPR exclusive bulletin: Crist to run for Florida Senate as an independent

By Matt Towery
April 20, 2010

It may be the worst-kept secret in American politics today, and it’s apparently about to become a reality. Reliable sources informed me today that embattled Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, whose early lead in his US Senate Republican primary race against former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio has essentially reversed itself in the polls, is preparing to announce sooner rather than later that he will leave the GOP and continue his run for Senate as an independent. Sources add that the speech Crist will use in his announcement is now being drafted.

Of course Crist is known from time to time for running political misdirections that surprise even political experts at the last minute. But the tea leaves Crist has left trailing behind him in recent weeks – particularly his about-face in vetoing an education reform bill dear to Florida Republicans – certainly seem to portend an abandonment of the party. Throw in, too, that he has recently been losing support from national and Florida GOP honchos – such as Mitt Romney and Crist’s now ex-campaign chair, former US Sen. Connie Mack, among other various Florida Republican luminaries.

Plus, Crist has mostly positioned himself as a moderate, and is largely perceived that way by Florida voters. Thus he likely sees an independent candidacy as his best and only hope of winning the Senate race. The most recent polls of a three-way general election race among Crist, Republican Rubio and presumed Democratic nominee Kendrick Meeks show that Crist is at least even with Rubio, and ahead of Meeks.

It’s unclear the effect an independent run by Crist would have on other Republican candidates in Florida this year, particularly with the added ingredient of the loose network of activists and candidates known in media as Tea Partiers. But if Crist follows through with what my sources tell me is a done deal, things will go one of two ways: It’s possible voters from the conservative wing of the GOP will overwhelm the polls in November and lift candidates such as Rubio in major elections both in Florida and across the nation. It’s also possible that liberal, independent and centrist-minded voters may react to the increasingly polarizing political atmosphere in the nation by embracing avowedly moderate candidates like Crist.

It’s always been puzzling to me why Gov. Crist decided to forego a relatively safe shot at a second term as Florida governor to instead make a go at becoming a part of the minority Republican conference in the US Senate.

In any event, the April 30 qualifying deadline for a Crist decision is drawing near. Again, based on what my sources are telling me, and in line with much speculation, Charlie Crist will soon become an independent candidate for Senate. Among whatever else that may bring about, it will almost certainly mean – once again – that Florida will provide America with some of the most entertaining politics of the season.

Daniel G.

Ok Daniel a few things…..First…..this is just another rumor piece…..the guy writes IF…..

Second….Crist ran because early on before the Rubio out the woods right turn…he was ASKED to run by the party……

He, he, he…I’ll bet they don’t remember that part….since Rubio is now the golden boy……

Third……. the author of the piece clearly says this piece IS speculation……

Last….NOBODY Knows what’s going on except Charlie Crist…..period!

April 20, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Counterpoints, Fiction, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Projections, Updates | , , , | 5 Comments

Daniel……Florida Senate; BREAKING NEWS: Republican Leadership writing of Crist; Believe he'll run as Independent….

Hello Dog Folks and Good Morning!

I know, I know the Polling News is interesting BUT before we come to that we’ve a potentially MAJOR DEVELOPING STORY regarding the Republican Senate Primary in Florida.

Sources telling Hotline On Call that the “Republican Leadership”  looks like they have OFFICIALLY written of Florida Governor Charlie Crist (R-FL).

Top Officials in Washington D. C. now believe it’s VIRTUALLY a CERTAIN THING that Crist will bolt Republicans and run as Independent.

A Decision by Governor Crist looks IMMINENT

Here is the Article:
Top GOP officials in DC now believe it is a virtual certainty that FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R) will bolt the GOP and run instead as an independent, sources tell Hotline OnCall.

Over the weekend, Crist pulled TV advertisements that had been running in key markets, slamming ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R). Those ads, on which Crist spent close to $1.5M so far, were aimed at moving poll numbers that showed Crist losing badly.

In taking the ads down, top GOP officials have surmised both that Crist has made his decision to run as an independent, and that the attacks weren’t having an impact on the race.

Privately, GOP officials have even tried to broach the idea that Crist drop out of the race. NRSC chair John Cornyn called Crist on Friday, intending to make it clear that Crist should drop out if he doesn’t believe he can win a party primary. Crist did not answer the phone, a source close to Cornyn said, and as of today Cornyn’s call hasn’t been returned.

Party leaders spent the weekend sending more overt warnings. Cornyn told Politico last week Crist would be ending his GOP career by running as an independent, while Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell told CNN Crist would lose party backing if he leaves.

Instead of from party leaders, insiders believe Crist is getting advice from Sen. George LeMieux (R), the man Crist hopes to replace. LeMieux ran Crist’s ’06 GOV race and has served as his top aide in the past.

LeMieux has denied he knows anything about a potential party switch. During a conference call with reporters last week, LeMieux told Hotline OnCall he expected Crist to run as a GOPer, comments he echoed this morning.

Crist has yet to ask his staff whether they would stay on if he runs as an independent, but several top advisors have already told party sources they would sever ties. GOP ad expert Stuart Stevens, of The Stevens and Schriefer Group, would leave the campaign, and party officials say they believe most senior staff would exit too.

Crist’s pollster, Glen Bolger, is also expected to leave, though he would not comment for this story. Bolger already lost one client this year — Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) — after a party switch.

As GOP leaders have replaced idle gossip that Crist may switch parties with near certainty that a public announcement is imminent, the party has sought to illustrate the severity of the consequences.

The once-popular FL gov. is walking a tightrope as he considers whether to run on his own, whether to drop out or whether to plod along in his bid against Rubio. If he runs as an independent, angry donors could ask for their money back, and Crist might not be able to find the financial resources to replace it.

And with no party apparatus to rely on, Crist’s organizational options would be seriously limited. A successful FL campaign relies on an early voting strategy, and without the FL GOP executing that strategy on his behalf, Crist would face a serious organizational deficit.
The most CLEAR INDICATION Hotline mentions ARE Crist’s TV-Ads worth 1,5 Mio $ aimed at Rubio to move Poll Numbers.

Here are my thoughts:

1. I’m not sold just yet on an Indie Bid by Crist.

2. By pulling his TV-Ads it could also mean that he could drop out of the Race altogether.

Daniel G.

Daniel…on this….. I agree with ya…..lets wait for a few days…….

April 19, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Projections, Updates | , , , | 22 Comments

Daniel……Florida Senate; BREAKING NEWS: Republican Leadership writing of Crist; Believe he’ll run as Independent….

Hello Dog Folks and Good Morning!

I know, I know the Polling News is interesting BUT before we come to that we’ve a potentially MAJOR DEVELOPING STORY regarding the Republican Senate Primary in Florida.

Sources telling Hotline On Call that the “Republican Leadership”  looks like they have OFFICIALLY written of Florida Governor Charlie Crist (R-FL).

Top Officials in Washington D. C. now believe it’s VIRTUALLY a CERTAIN THING that Crist will bolt Republicans and run as Independent.

A Decision by Governor Crist looks IMMINENT

Here is the Article:
Top GOP officials in DC now believe it is a virtual certainty that FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R) will bolt the GOP and run instead as an independent, sources tell Hotline OnCall.

Over the weekend, Crist pulled TV advertisements that had been running in key markets, slamming ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R). Those ads, on which Crist spent close to $1.5M so far, were aimed at moving poll numbers that showed Crist losing badly.

In taking the ads down, top GOP officials have surmised both that Crist has made his decision to run as an independent, and that the attacks weren’t having an impact on the race.

Privately, GOP officials have even tried to broach the idea that Crist drop out of the race. NRSC chair John Cornyn called Crist on Friday, intending to make it clear that Crist should drop out if he doesn’t believe he can win a party primary. Crist did not answer the phone, a source close to Cornyn said, and as of today Cornyn’s call hasn’t been returned.

Party leaders spent the weekend sending more overt warnings. Cornyn told Politico last week Crist would be ending his GOP career by running as an independent, while Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell told CNN Crist would lose party backing if he leaves.

Instead of from party leaders, insiders believe Crist is getting advice from Sen. George LeMieux (R), the man Crist hopes to replace. LeMieux ran Crist’s ’06 GOV race and has served as his top aide in the past.

LeMieux has denied he knows anything about a potential party switch. During a conference call with reporters last week, LeMieux told Hotline OnCall he expected Crist to run as a GOPer, comments he echoed this morning.

Crist has yet to ask his staff whether they would stay on if he runs as an independent, but several top advisors have already told party sources they would sever ties. GOP ad expert Stuart Stevens, of The Stevens and Schriefer Group, would leave the campaign, and party officials say they believe most senior staff would exit too.

Crist’s pollster, Glen Bolger, is also expected to leave, though he would not comment for this story. Bolger already lost one client this year — Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) — after a party switch.

As GOP leaders have replaced idle gossip that Crist may switch parties with near certainty that a public announcement is imminent, the party has sought to illustrate the severity of the consequences.

The once-popular FL gov. is walking a tightrope as he considers whether to run on his own, whether to drop out or whether to plod along in his bid against Rubio. If he runs as an independent, angry donors could ask for their money back, and Crist might not be able to find the financial resources to replace it.

And with no party apparatus to rely on, Crist’s organizational options would be seriously limited. A successful FL campaign relies on an early voting strategy, and without the FL GOP executing that strategy on his behalf, Crist would face a serious organizational deficit.
The most CLEAR INDICATION Hotline mentions ARE Crist’s TV-Ads worth 1,5 Mio $ aimed at Rubio to move Poll Numbers.

Here are my thoughts:

1. I’m not sold just yet on an Indie Bid by Crist.

2. By pulling his TV-Ads it could also mean that he could drop out of the Race altogether.

Daniel G.

Daniel…on this….. I agree with ya…..lets wait for a few days…….

April 19, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Projections, Updates | , , , | 22 Comments