Jamesb101.com

commentary on Politics and a little bit of everything else

Larry Sabado agrees with the Dog…..The House is likeley to still have a Democratic majority next January….

I have said this to Daniel all along……The Democratic loses in the House will NOT rise above 30ish….

Nancy Pelosi will keep her job as Speaker of the House come January…..

Apparently….Larry Sabado’s Crystal Ball agree’s with the Dog….

Like many beleaguered sports fans, as the calendar turned to 2010, Republicans across the country were conjuring up the same thought: “This is the year!” After disastrous House elections in 2006 and 2008, Republicans dropped from their high-water mark of 232 House seats—their largest total since 1949—to just 178—their lowest total in a decade and a half. This precipitous decline brought considerable frustration to the new minority party. 2010 appeared to offer the chance for historic rebirth—and in many ways it still does.

The real question of this midterm election is not whether a Republican tide is imminent, but how high it will be. From 1938 onwards, in only two of eighteen midterm elections (1998 and 2002) has the party shut out of the White House failed to gain House seats. With so many seats to defend, and dozens of them in Republican-leaning districts, Democrats have obvious, substantial disadvantages this year. However, the sizeable Democratic majority in Congress is not only a sign of opportunity for the GOP but a bulwark for Democrats. Even after winning a House special election in Hawaii’s 1st District to pick up a new seat last week, Republicans still need a net gain of 39 seats this November to retake the House majority. And the Hawaii seat is shaky indeed for the GOP.

Unlike some analysts, we have never once predicted that Republicans would win enough new House seats to take control of the chamber. They may well do so in November due to the factors with which we’re all familiar (a bad economy, sagging presidential popularity, public concern over spending and debt, and so on). But in our eyes, there has been and still is insufficient data to suggest an impending turnover……

More…..

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May 27, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Media, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Projections, Updates | , , | 17 Comments

Merlin likes Larry Sabado’s prediction’s….based on the Scott Brown Mass ‘bump’……

Hi Dog!

I have waited for this for a long time…….

Larry J. Sabato, of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, predicts, that if the 2010 Midterm Election’s were held today..Republican’s would  GAIN 7 seats…

…….reducing the Democratic Majority to just 52 Seats. (Problem is…the election is in November…so this is wishful thinking…but….)

Check it out here:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ljs2010012101/

Sabato currently predicts that Republicans will all hold their 6 Open Seats (Kansas, Kentucky, Ohio, Missouri,New Hampshire and Florida)

Sabato also currently predicts 7 Republican Takeovers in the following States:

Arkansas (Lincoln)

Colorado (Bennet)

Delaware (Open)

Illinois (Open)

Nevada (Reid)

North Dakota (Open)

Pennsylvania (Specter)

Though he also says and I quote:

“Democrats have plenty of chances to ward off this “Nightmare on November Street” if the economy and Obama’s approval ratings rebound over the next nine and a half months.

For the moment, though the Democrats nightmare is the Republican scenario, as our Senate rankings suggest.

Merlin

The Dog added the italics and color highlights……

Update:.………..Stu Rothenberg doesn’t like Blanche Lincoln’s numbers either now….he moves her race to Lean Takeover…..She has Obama and herself do move things back by Novemeber…if they can

January 21, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Healthcare, Media, PoliticalDog Calls, PoliticalDogs Merlin, Politics, Polls, The Economy, Updates | , , , , | 10 Comments

Merlin likes Larry Sabado's prediction's….based on the Scott Brown Mass 'bump'……

Hi Dog!

I have waited for this for a long time…….

Larry J. Sabato, of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, predicts, that if the 2010 Midterm Election’s were held today..Republican’s would  GAIN 7 seats…

…….reducing the Democratic Majority to just 52 Seats. (Problem is…the election is in November…so this is wishful thinking…but….)

Check it out here:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ljs2010012101/

Sabato currently predicts that Republicans will all hold their 6 Open Seats (Kansas, Kentucky, Ohio, Missouri,New Hampshire and Florida)

Sabato also currently predicts 7 Republican Takeovers in the following States:

Arkansas (Lincoln)

Colorado (Bennet)

Delaware (Open)

Illinois (Open)

Nevada (Reid)

North Dakota (Open)

Pennsylvania (Specter)

Though he also says and I quote:

“Democrats have plenty of chances to ward off this “Nightmare on November Street” if the economy and Obama’s approval ratings rebound over the next nine and a half months.

For the moment, though the Democrats nightmare is the Republican scenario, as our Senate rankings suggest.

Merlin

The Dog added the italics and color highlights……

Update:.………..Stu Rothenberg doesn’t like Blanche Lincoln’s numbers either now….he moves her race to Lean Takeover…..She has Obama and herself do move things back by Novemeber…if they can

January 21, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Healthcare, Media, PoliticalDog Calls, PoliticalDogs Merlin, Politics, Polls, The Economy, Updates | , , , , | 10 Comments