commentary on Politics and a little bit of everything else

BP is a Strong stock buy in some places…….The Company WILL survive…..It has to…..

The number crunchers have figured out what the Dog indistinctly has known since the beginning of this thing…

In the end…

A couple of years from now….


Is going to be fine….

And people are going make money on the stock when it comes back…..and it will…

I mean that….

By early summer the oil leak will be capped…

Money will be dispersed…

Some BP people may have serious legal problems….

But the company WILL survive this…

As bad as things are for the American Gulf coast states……

The Brits are not gonna stand by while their American cousins wipe out their equity in their premier oil company…A lot of Brits have their life savings in that stock….

The new government will not stand for the economic shock of the company going out of business giving all its money to the American’s in the South….

The Gulf of Mexico will survive this…

The people of the Gulf states will suffer a LOT…….

But…..Oil companies will still be taking oil out of the ground in the Gulf of Mexico

Mark the Dogs words…

I’m right on this…..

J.P. Morgan Chase analyst Fred Lucas is going where few analysts dare to go.

In a research note this morning, following a 16% drop in BP’s share price on Wednesday, Lucas declares “Latest technical rout reveals unprecedented value” in the oil giant’s battered shares.

Lucas has a “buy” rating on BP and presents a back-of-the-envelope case for why the company’s $84 billion loss in market value is overblown by a factor of more than 2X. That’s right–Lucas is arguing that BP shares have sold off twice as much as they should have since the spill.

Here are some of Lucas’s calculations, which he admits are based on rough estimates.

Clean up costs: A total of $5 billion, based on a rate of spending $60 million a day. This is about double the $28 million BP has said it has spent daily in the past 51 days. But it also assumes that the clean up will take about 120 days, which seems rosy given that it took several years to clean up the oil spilled from the Exxon Valdez in 1989. Only a few years ago, scientists were still finding oil from the spill along the Alaskan coast.

Federal Fines: While it’s difficult to know for sure the exact amount of oil leaking into the Gulf, Lucas assumes a worse-case scenario of about 1.9 million barrels in total. He also assumes that BP can cap the leak by July 4th. This implies a fine of $2.1 billion based on the Clean Water Act penalties of $1,100 a barrel. If BP is found to be grossly negligent, the fine could rise to $8.1 billion, at a per-barrel penalty of $4,300. This also doesn’t take into consideration fines from the many Gulf states affected by the spill.

Litigation Costs: Lawsuits will likely come from the tourism and fishing industries. According to Lucas, total annual revenue from tourism from the affected states is Alabama ($3 billion) Louisiana ($9 billion) Mississippi ($2 billion) and Florida ($57 billion). Fishery revenue from the affected states is Alabama ($1 billion) Louisiana ($3 billion) Mississippi ($0 billion) and Florida ($5 billion). Lucas says if these industries lose half that revenue in 2010 and 2011, then the total cost to BP would be $16 billion.

All told, his estimated cost is $29 billion

Loss in market value since the spill is $84 billion.

June 11, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Ecology, Government, Health, Law, Media, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Projections, The Economy, Updates | , , , , , , , | 11 Comments

Arizona Gov. Brewer to meet Obama…..She vows to fight for the new State Immigration Law……

President Obama and Gov. Jan Brewer are set to meet face-to-face at the White House on Thursday to discuss Arizona's efforts to combat illegal immigration.

This story has been REALLY hyped up……

The new law goes into effect sometime in July….

It will surely be fought by the US Justice Department as an infringement on the FEderal Governments right to enforce immigration law…..

Which is a Federal repsopnsibilty….NOT a state one…..

The popular opinion is the Feds will probably win this one….

Arizona Governor Brewer knows  this, so does the Arizona legislators that passed the Bill…

To them this is just a cry out for help on a problem that they see Washington doesn’t understand …or take seriously enough..

The problem is that Immigration can never be solved by JUST enforcement…

The Cops know that….and they have come down against the bill’s mandates also…

But it politics time …

So instead of working for a comprehensive approach to solve the problem….

Obama…like George Bush before him…..

Will be drawn by media polls into offering a military approach to satisfy the red meat crowd……..

This again puts any complete solution on the back burner…and makes Brewer look good at home……

The tough-talking Arizona governor will be taking her case for border security to President Obama on Thursday, and has no plans to back down.

Gov. Jan Brewer, who has been both cheered and jeered for supporting a law aimed at fighting illegal immigration that some call “racist,” plans to take the White House to task for failing to secure the nation’s border.

“Mr. President, we need our borders secured,” she told CNN‘s John King on Tuesday night. “How can we work together to get it done? We need your help.”

She may find herself in an uphill battle, however.

The President has called Arizona’s anti-illegal immigration effort “misguided,” and the Attorney General has raised the possibility of filing a lawsuit to stop it.

If that happens, Brewer told CNN: “We’ll see [Obama] in court.”

“I have a pretty good record of winning in court,” she added.

Brewer indicated she would not agree to postpone the law, which is set to go into effect at the end of July.

“Eighty percent of American[s] agree with me, agree with the state of Arizona, and I think it’s important that the President and I sit down and discuss why it is important.”

President Obama announced last month that he plans to ship 1,200 more National Guard troops to the border to beef up security, and also seeks to send $500 million to fund improvements.


June 2, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Law, Media, Men, Military, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates, Women | , , , | 1 Comment

The New Arizona Law is going to court……

They are lining up to fight this one….From the ACLU to maybe the Department of Justice…..

While the politician’s in Washington DC don’t want any part of the issue before November…

There are plenty of organizations that will be going after the upcoming law in Federal Court…..

Other action’s against similar bills in other states suggest that the law will hard to defend against challenges that it usurps the Federal Government’s primary function as the enforcer of Immigration law and policy….

The demonstrations against the law have begun also…..

As the furor over Arizona’s strict new immigration law escalates, immigrant advocates are preparing to move the fight to the courtroom, where their legal challenges have successfully sunk other high-profile laws against illegal migrants.

The American Civil Liberties Union, Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund and the National Immigration Law Center are set to announce in Phoenix on Thursday plans to challenge the measure. U.S. Atty. Gen. Eric Holder said this week that he was considering a possible legal challenge to the law.

The law, which is set to take effect in midsummer, makes it a state crime for illegal migrants to be in Arizona, requires police to check for evidence of legal status and bars people from hiring or soliciting work off the streets.

The key legal issue, according to lawyers on both sides, will be one that also was at the center of the court fight over Proposition 187 in California — whether the state law interferes with the federal government’s duty to handle immigration.

The announcement of legal action, one of several expected as attorneys across the country scrutinize the law for weaknesses, comes after days of frantic e-mails, conference calls and lengthy strategy sessions. Attorneys haven’t finalized a date when a court challenge would be filed, but said it would be before the law takes effect.

“The entire country has been galvanized,” said Marielena Hincapie, executive director of the National Immigration Law Center. “People within the legal community are trying to figure out what we can do…. We have seen an enormous amount of energy responding to this.”

Attorneys who successfully challenged laws against illegal immigrants in California, Texas and elsewhere argue that the Arizona law faces a similar fate because of the federal/state issue. Immigrant advocates also argue that the law could violate guarantees of equal protection if selectively enforced against certain ethnic groups.

“The Arizona law is doomed to the dustbin of other unconstitutional efforts by local government to regulate immigration, which is a uniquely federal function,” said Peter Schey, a Los Angeles attorney who led successful challenges to the 1975 Texas law denying illegal migrant children free public schooling and the 1994 California initiative that would have barred public services to illegal migrants. Schey said he also planned to file a separate lawsuit.

April 29, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Law, Media, Men, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Travel, Updates, Women | , , , | 5 Comments

FiveThirtyEight on the SEC going after Goldman-Sachs……

Hale “Bonddad” Stewart over @ FiveThirtyEigth gives us a rundown on the SEC compliant……

First, the document filed by the SEC is a complaint. The purpose of this document is to define the issues for trial. Usually, the person filing the complaint has done a lot of investigation before filing the document — so much so that they can more or less anticipate what the defendant will do.

Then goes over the specifics…..

a) Use of interstate commerce for purpose of fraud or deceit….to wit……..

It shall be unlawful for any person, directly or indirectly, by the use of any means or instrumentality of interstate commerce or of the mails, or of any facility of any national securities exchange—

He then makes Seven more points……

Then gives this analogy on why the SEC should win the case……

Let me add this personal thought. I have very high hopes that the SEC wins this case. As I mentioned above, they have a good case. But the real reason is best illustrated by a story. This year my wife and I went to opening day at Wrigley Field (which should be a national holiday). While we were walking around the streets that surrounded Wrigley we saw a group of four cops — and I mean cops. All I could think of when I saw these guys was one of them saying to a someone, “don’t make me.” My guess is at least two of them were ex-football players. They were standing in a group talking and basically making their presence quietly felt. At this point I knew nothing bad was going to happen on that street. Why? Because of this group of cops — they would make sure nothing bad happened. In essence, you felt this quiet law enforcement presence on the street. That’s what the SEC needs to do — or more importantly, needs to establish. Right now, there is no law enforcement presence on Wall Street at all. Wall Street needs to know there is a cop on the beat to deal with excesses in the system.

For the whole Post…..and the numerous comments…..

The Dog still thinks Goldman-Sachs will still be proudly standing after this whole thing is all over…for those you who want to read another Goldmen-Sach caper…..

Dig this.…….

April 26, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Law, Media, Men, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, The Economy, Updates | , , , , | 1 Comment

The SEC will not be the only problem fro Goldmen-Sachs…..

The  Attorney General’s of New York and Massacuetes have already went to court against the financial giant……

And the line is forming for more legal action……

After discussions with the office of state Attorney General Martha Coakley (D), Goldman last year agreed to pay up to $60 million to end that investigation, the first major settlement involving Wall Street’s role in the subprime mortgage crisis.

“Goldman was particularly active with respect to facilitating the lending by two of the more notorious and unsound subprime lenders — Fremont and New Century,” Coakley said Wednesday. “Goldman was especially active with these companies in the latter stages of the subprime lending boom . . . when it should have been increasingly clear to any responsible person that the subprime loan pools underlying securitizations suffered serious problems.”

Even before the Securities and Exchange Commission sued Goldman last week, accusing it of creating a complex financial product designed to fail and selling it to unknowing investors, the firm had been a frequent target of investigators. In courts and in Congress, Goldman has been accused of a range of misdeeds, from manipulating oil prices to using taxpayer money for handsome bonuses.

The company has maintained that it did nothing improper in any of those cases, and in the Massachusetts settlement it admitted to no wrongdoing. Yet, to many Goldman critics, the SEC lawsuit underscores their worst image of the bank as a cold firm that places its profit before anything else — client interests, customer needs and its obligation to society as a leading American corporation.


In 2008, Goldman agreed to pay tens of millions of dollars to settle allegations by the New York state attorney general, who argued that it misled investors about the safety of an instrument known as an auction-rate security. Late last year, several pension funds filed lawsuits charging the company’s directors with breach of duty in connection with outsize executive paydays; Goldman has said the suit lacks merit.


April 21, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Law, Media, PoliticalDog Calls, Updates | , , | Leave a comment

Ex-AIG employees want their full bonuses restored and may go to court…….

The Dog called this one from the jump……

If your employer promises you a lot of money …he should pay it…..

While I understand the media and then the politicians leaned on the management of AIG…( the company is now 80% owned by the taxpayers )……

The former employees had a deal……

AIG is holding back $21 million from retention bonuses for current and former employees of its Financial Products unit. That unit nearly caused the insurer’s collapse in September 2008.

The insurer is asking former employees who are eligible for the payout what they earned after leaving AIG so it can reduce the retention bonus payments by that amount, said Gary Phelan, a partner at law firm Outten & Golden, which represents eight current and former employees.

“They have asked them a series of questions, explaining that this is part of their due diligence,” Phelan said. “But those same questions have been asked and answered before already.

“They’ve had several months to determine whether or not any payment should be offset,” Phelan said. “Unless there’s a very quick payment made of the balance, 25 percent, I think [a lawsuit] is inevitable.”

Andrew Goodstadt, a partner at Thompson Wigdor & Gilly, which is representing about a dozen current and former employees, said they were also considering all options.

AIG declined to comment.


March 16, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Law, Media, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, The Economy, Updates | , , , | 10 Comments

Marvel fights in court for its Spider-Man, Fantastic Four and X-Men brands in court…..

The fight in Federal Court is between Marvel and the heirs of artist Jack Kirby ( who passed away in 1994 ) who want to gain control over the artists work while he was in the employ of Marvel……employ copyright could run out in 2014……and I’m sure we are talking about  a good amount of money here…..

January 9, 2010 Posted by | Entertainment, Family, Media, Men, Updates | , , , , , | Leave a comment