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commentary on Politics and a little bit of everything else

Nate Silver doesn't think Crist has a good chance to win in Florida……Even as an Indie……

Nate Silver @ FiveThirtySeven …who is longwinded…..breaks it down to this…..

By switching out of the party Charlie Crist loses what left of his moderate GOP base and money……

Also…..He feels ( I agree with him ) that Rubio will immediately track to the middle…..trying keep his right support with him ..thus  cementing a win against Meek….

This same thing happened with Obama in the primaries…where he got the left in Iowa and came back to the center for the rest of the states……

This from PoliticalWire who got it from FiveThirtySeven……....

Crist’s Chances

Nate Silver looks at the odds of Florida Gov. Charlie Crist winning the U.S. Senate seat in Florida by running as an independent. The outlook isn’t pretty:

“Right now, Crist is preferred to Rubio by about one-third of Republican registered voters, according to Quinnipiac. But, even though there are some moderate Republicans in Florida (38 percent of the Republican presidential primary electorate in 2008 described themselves as moderate or liberal), it’s asking a lot of a Republican identifier to continue to support a candidate who has just ditched the party — particularly when it seems to be motivated by expediency rather than ideological resolve (Crist’s lack of grivatas, even when compared with someone like Arlen Specter or Joe Lieberman, will hurt him here). Plus, Rubio, already very well liked by conservatives, will get to do a bit of a victory lap as the sole viable candidate on the primary ballot, and can immediately turn his attention to broadening his appeal among party moderates. This might not even require all that much effort; Rubio’s favorability rating among Republicans is 67-7 (!) according to Quinnipiac, and while quite conservative, he seems from a distance to avoid coming across as any kind of dangerous extremist.”

Read more: http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/04/22/crists_chances.html#ixzz0lwt0Aawj

April 23, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Updates | , , | 1 Comment

Nate Silver doesn’t think Crist has a good chance to win in Florida……Even as an Indie……

Nate Silver @ FiveThirtySeven …who is longwinded…..breaks it down to this…..

By switching out of the party Charlie Crist loses what left of his moderate GOP base and money……

Also…..He feels ( I agree with him ) that Rubio will immediately track to the middle…..trying keep his right support with him ..thus  cementing a win against Meek….

This same thing happened with Obama in the primaries…where he got the left in Iowa and came back to the center for the rest of the states……

This from PoliticalWire who got it from FiveThirtySeven……....

Crist’s Chances

Nate Silver looks at the odds of Florida Gov. Charlie Crist winning the U.S. Senate seat in Florida by running as an independent. The outlook isn’t pretty:

“Right now, Crist is preferred to Rubio by about one-third of Republican registered voters, according to Quinnipiac. But, even though there are some moderate Republicans in Florida (38 percent of the Republican presidential primary electorate in 2008 described themselves as moderate or liberal), it’s asking a lot of a Republican identifier to continue to support a candidate who has just ditched the party — particularly when it seems to be motivated by expediency rather than ideological resolve (Crist’s lack of grivatas, even when compared with someone like Arlen Specter or Joe Lieberman, will hurt him here). Plus, Rubio, already very well liked by conservatives, will get to do a bit of a victory lap as the sole viable candidate on the primary ballot, and can immediately turn his attention to broadening his appeal among party moderates. This might not even require all that much effort; Rubio’s favorability rating among Republicans is 67-7 (!) according to Quinnipiac, and while quite conservative, he seems from a distance to avoid coming across as any kind of dangerous extremist.”

Read more: http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/04/22/crists_chances.html#ixzz0lwt0Aawj

April 23, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Updates | , , | 1 Comment

Marco Rubio has the IRS and other Feds snooping around……

He is under investigation in two connected cases of credit card usage……

One is a Federal case involving false statements in the usage of cards by party official’s….

The second case is a preliminary look by the IRS into Rubio and others usage or credit cards for personal…not offical usage….

There is a third state investigation into credit card usage that does NOT involve Rubio……

Rubio has admitted to double billing on his card to the state GOP for around $3,000 and promised to refund the money…but apparently has not done so yet…..

Stay tuned for more…..

This story has been out there…….

Here’s some of the piece…..

Federal law enforcement agencies have launched a criminal investigation into the use of American Express cards issued by the Republican Party of Florida to elected officials and staff, according to sources familiar with the inquiry.

The U.S. Attorney’s Office in Tallahassee, the FBI and the Internal Revenue Service are all involved in the inquiry, which grew out of the state investigation into former House Speaker Ray Sansom. He was indicted on criminal charges that he stashed $6 million in the state budget for an airplane hangar for a friend and campaign donor.

In the federal case, Sansom and others could be charged with making false statements on their tax returns and tax evasion stemming from hundreds of thousands dollars in charges on party credit cards.

A spokeswoman for the Republican Party of Florida, Katie Betta, said she could not confirm the investigation nor make any comments. Coming in a high-stakes election year, the investigation could expose the inner-workings of a party that has dominated state government and raked in millions of dollars from lobbyists and special interests.

More……..

Note .….In fairness to Rubio…

This story has been out there for a while……

And the story may do something unexpected…..

It may be free publicity for Rubio….in addtion to galvanizing his base to further come out and vote…..

We’ll see how this plays……

Up to now it hasn’t stopped Rubio from doing fine…..

If the Fed’s decide to do something..its gonna be more of a three-ring circus…..

Only actual charges would stop him I suppose…..

And maybe Crist going independant…He, he, he…..

April 21, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Government, Law, Media, Men, Politics, Updates | , , | 9 Comments

Let's Face it…..Democrats want Rubio to win the GOP primary…..

Daniel my buddy here and partner wants Marco Rubio to win the GOP primary….SO DO I !……

Daniel’s gonna give us the numbers…but the magic numbers for me…and the Democrats is this currently….

Rubio 42%….Meek 38%….

I have told Daniel from the jump that Meek runs better against Rubio , who tracks right of center…and I have been proven right so far…..

Daniel will have  more on this…..

Go Marco…Go!

April 15, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Counterpoints, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates | , , , | 5 Comments

Let’s Face it…..Democrats want Rubio to win the GOP primary…..

Daniel my buddy here and partner wants Marco Rubio to win the GOP primary….SO DO I !……

Daniel’s gonna give us the numbers…but the magic numbers for me…and the Democrats is this currently….

Rubio 42%….Meek 38%….

I have told Daniel from the jump that Meek runs better against Rubio , who tracks right of center…and I have been proven right so far…..

Daniel will have  more on this…..

Go Marco…Go!

April 15, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Counterpoints, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates | , , , | 5 Comments

Marco Rubio raises $3.6 million in the first quarter of 2010……

Not too shabby, huh?

In spite of that….. Charlie Crist isn’t going anywhere folks……

Rubio’s total doesn’t quite match Gov. Charlie Crist’s (R) $4.3 million effort in the second quarter of 2009 — his first quarter of fundraising when he was the presumptive nominee — but it does serve notice that the formerly popular governor’s days of being the financially superior GOP candidate are long past.

Crist’s big entree into Floriday’s GOP Senate primary stacked up well against the $340,000 Rubio raised between April and June last year, but since then, the table have turned considerably.

More……..

April 7, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Media, Men, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Updates | , , | 7 Comments

Daniel…… Florida Senate: Who is going to endorse the Marco Rubio for Senate Campaign on Monday???

Hello Dog!


I just received word that my Senate Candidate in Florida Marco Rubio will receive a “Major Endorsement” from one of the most prominent Republican on Monday. Who might that be?

The first one which comes to my mind is former Florida Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL) and I’d say if that’s him this would likely be the Final “Nail in the Coffin” for Governor Crist.

That could do it for Rubio.

Rubio Campaign Statement:

The Shark Tank has just received word from a very reliable source that  U.S. Senate candidate Marco Rubio will receive an endorsement from one of the most prominent names in politics, and that it will be announced on Monday April 5th. The Rubio for Senate campaign will hold a press conference to make the formal announcement at  the Renaissance Ballrooms located at 2340 SW 32 Avenue in Coral Gables, Florida at 10:30 AM.  All are invited to attend.

As for who the mystery endorser is, ‘mum’ is the word for now.  The editors of the Shark Tank have promised to keep their jaws shut and be content to lurk the depths of the coastal waterways until the appointed time.  I will add that loyalty to friends and family is of paramount concern in this crazy political world we choose to live in, and backstabbing will ultimately come around to bite you in the fin. hint hint, wink wink!

Daniel G.

April 2, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, Politics, Updates | , | 4 Comments

Daniel….Florida Senate: Some Thoughts and why I TRUST Mason-Dixon more than any other Pollster particular down in Florida…..

Hello Dog!

How far is is Marco Rubio really ahead of Governor Crist?.

Well, not by that huge margins you’re supposed to believe.
I KEPT SAYING patience folks AND there was a Reason behind it.
I knew at some Point this year One of America’s Leading State Pollster (Mason-Dixon) would sooner or later poll down in Florida. BTW, the other Golden State Pollster is Survey USA. You can all Toss these Robo-Polls like RAS or PPP.
We now have the first LIVE INTERVIEWER POLL and it shows Rubio only up by 11.!

Why I trust Mason-Dixon in their Polling PARTICULARLY when it comes to Florida:

1. They nailed the Bush-Gore Race in 2000.

2. They nailed the Bush-Kerry Contest as well as the Senate Race between Martinez and Castor.

3. They nailed Crist-Jim Davis in 2006 and the Senate Race Nelson-Harris

4. They nailed the McCain-Romney GOP Primary in 2008

AND

5. They nailed the Obama-McCain Contest in 2008

They BASICALLY did EVERY Statewide Race RIGHT over the last 8 years.

You need any more answers?

Probably not after I explained above.

Orlando Sentinel / Mason-Dixon Survey (PDF File to be included later in a Link)

Florida Senate 2010

Republican Primary

Former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio  48 %
Incumbent Governor Charlie Crist  37 %
Undecided  15 %

General Election

Incumbent Governor Charlie Crist (R)  50 %
U. S. Rep. Kendrick B. Meek (D)  26 %
Undecided  24 %

Former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio (R)  44 %
U. S. Rep. Kendrick B. Meek (D)  29 %
Undecided  27 %

Link to be posted in the Comment Section of the Post later on.

Major Candidates Websites:

http://www.marcorubio.com/
http://charliecrist.com/
http://www.kendrickmeek.com/

Analysis:

I am surprised at this Poll but I’ll take it.

I explained above.
Interesting: The Party Registration in this Sample is 43 D / 38 R / 19 I
I LOVE THESE Crosstabs. You’ll get them too after you post this Poll.
Here are the Crosstabs:

http://media.tbo.com/pdf/fl310pollpart1.pdf

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0310/35090.html

Daniel G.

I glad you like Mason-Dixon Daniel…..Meek continues to run better against Rubio…..
The Dog

March 26, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates | , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Marco Rubio hits a bump….little or large?

The mud-slinging is about taxes on expenses……

Marco Rubio speaks at CPAC. | AP Photo

Here’s the piece from Politico.…..

Rubio’s expenses

Florida politics is abuzz today with the leak of the statements for a Republican Party American Express card held by Marco Rubio, which shows some charges for things that look like personal expenses.

Rubio quickly denounced the story as a low blow from the Crist-controlled party, and he has the advantage that the sums he’s accused of spending are far lower than those Crist’s allies at the parties spent.

But the way this kind of story can become truly damaging — for him and for other Florida Republicans — is if it emerges that they spent party money on their own and didn’t pay taxes on the imputed income. It’s often the taxing, not the spending, that brings pols down in situations like this.

NOTE: Rubio says he paid back all the personal expenses which, if true, would eliminate any problem. [The paper reported:

Records show Rubio sent payments to American Express totaling $13,900 for his personal expenses during his tenure as House speaker. But those payments were not made monthly. He made no contributions to the bill during a six-month stretch in 2007, records show.]

Posted by Ben Smith

February 25, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Entertainment, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, Politics, Updates | , , | 12 Comments

Crist Agrees to Debate Rubio……

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) agreed to two nationally-televised debates with Marco Rubio (R) hosted by Meet The Press on March 7h and Fox News Sunday on March 28th.

February 19, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Entertainment, Government, Media, Men, Politics, Polls, Updates | , , | 2 Comments