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Daniel……New York Senate Special: New Marist Poll spells some HUGE Trouble for Gillibrand EVEN without Pataki…..

Hello Dog!

A new Statewide Survey in the Empire State spells some huge Trouble for Junior Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY). True this isn’t reflected in the Head-to-Head Match-Ups BUT if you have only a 27 %!!! Job Approvals you’re in some serious dudu. So even if Pataki doesn’t run (which as of now doesn’t seem likely) DON’T COUNT OUT other Candidates like Bruce Blakeman (R-NY).

2008 Recap: Who would have thought then Senator Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) would lose against a little known State Senator named Kay Hagan (D-NC)? Candidates do matter and if you run a decent Campaign you can still win even if you’re the UNDERDOG.

Marist Research Survey

New York Senate Special 2010

Republican Primary (with Pataki)

George Pataki  62 %
Joseph DioGuardi  7 %
Bruce Bakeman  4 %
David Malpass  2 %
Daniel Senor  2 % (Note: Senor dropped out last week)
Undecided  23 %

Republican Primary (without Pataki)

Joseph DioGuardi  18 %
Bruce Blakeman  10 %
David Malpass  9 %
Daniel Senor  4 % (Note: Senor dropped out last week)
Undecided  59 %

General Election

Former New York Governor George Pataki (R)  47 %
Incumbent Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D)  45 %
Undecided  8 %

Incumbent Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D)  54 %
Attorney Bruce Blakeman (R)  25 %
Undecided  21 %

Incumbent Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D)  54 %
Former U. S. Rep. Joseph DioGuardi (R)  27 %
Undecided  19 %

Incumbent Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D)  54 %
Economist David Malpass (R)  25 %
Undecided  21 %

Major Candidates Websites (Links):

http://www.kirstengillibrand.com/home

http://blakeman2010.com

http://www.truthingovernment.org (DioGuardi )

Job Approvals

President Barack Obama (D)

Approve  53 %
Disapprove  47 %

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D)

Approve  27 %
Disapprove  51 %

Senator Charles “Chuck” Schumer (D)

Approve  51 %
Disapprove  45 %

Full Results at:

Note: Remainder: May I say to you that Cuomo still isn’t in the Governor Race so plenty of time for Pataki to decide.

Analysis:

This doesn’t look good for Gillibrand with a 27 % JA EVEN if she leads DioGuardi & Blakeman by around 20 Points. That can disappear very fast once a Campaign gets started. AND until Pataki goes before CAMERA and says NO I’m still hopeful. The Filling Deadline in New York isn’t until June 14th.

Daniel G.

Daniel….I TOLD YOU…..I TOLD YOU….ITOLD YOU!…she is not the best candidate the Democrats could have……I am not at all surprised…she may win…but she is going be skating on very thin ice till November 5th……

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March 29, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Media, Men, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Updates, Women | , , , , | 21 Comments

Daniel……New York Governor & Senate Special: Marist, Zogby give Cuomo huge leads in the Governor Race; Zogby sees Gillibrand in a Toss-Up with Pataki ….

Hello Dog!

Two new Statewide Surveys in your Home State of New York give State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) 2 to 1 leads over Republicans, former U. S. Rep. Rick Lazio (R-NY) and Suffolk County Executive Steve Levy (R-NY). Lazio also leads Levy big in the Republican Governor Primary. Meanwhile a new Zogby International Interactive Survey shows Incumbent Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) in a Toss-Up Race against Former Governor George Pataki (R-NY)

Marist Research Survey

New York Governor 2010

Republican Primary

[ Lazio and Levy ]

Former U. S. Rep. Rick Lazio  53 %

Suffolk County Executive Steve Levy  21 %
Undecided  26 %

General Election

State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D)  61 %
Former U. S. Rep. Rick Lazio (R)  30 %
Undecided  9 %

State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D)  65 %
Suffolk County Executive Steve Levy (R)  26 %
Undecided  9 %

Major Candidates Websites:

http://lazio.com/
http://www.levyforgovernor.com

Zogby International Interactive Survey

New York Governor 2010

State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D)  52 %
Former U. S. Rep. Rick Lazio (R)  26 %

New York Senate Special Election 2010

Incumbent Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D)  41 %
Former New York Governor George Pataki (R)  38 %
Others  12 %
Undecided  10 %

http://www.kirstengillibrand.com/
http://georgepataki.com/

Analysis:

Cuomo will win I’ve no doubt about it. Interesting: Pataki seems to still have some kind of Campaign Website up. Presumably this is his old Governor Campaign Website.

Daniel G.

Daniel…Steve Levy may never get out of the gate….with these initial poll numbers…be ashamed if he switched parties and fell flat on his face?

And Pataki still makes me wonder….. we have heard nothing from the guy…… zilch????

Great numbers, but…….Is he gonna run?

March 26, 2010 Posted by | Other Things | , , , , , | 4 Comments

New Yorks' Senator Chuck Schumer's polling numbers move downward……..

Senator Chuck Schumer’s once rock solid approval rating has taken a slide.  For the first time in nearly nine years, Schumer’s approval rating has fallen below 50%.  According to the latest Marist Poll in New York, 47% of registered voters statewide report Schumer is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  31% rate the job he is doing as fair, and 17% view him as performing poorly.  This is Schumer’s lowest job approval rating since April 2001 when 49% of voters approved of the job he was doing.

Click Here for Complete February 1, 2010 NYS Schumer Poll Release and Tables

The approval rating of New York’s senior senator has declined over the past couple of months. In  Marist’s last survey on January 15th, 51% said Schumer was doing an above average job.  In November, he received a thumbs-up from54% of registered voters in New York, and just last September, his approval rating was 58%.

Schumer’s decline is most pronounced in New York City.  51% of New York City voters currently give Schumer high marks while 57% did the same two weeks ago, 64% in November, and 66% in September.

“Senator Schumer is not immune from the anti-incumbent sentiment among voters, but it would take a major effort to unseat him,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist Institute for Public Opinion.

However, this is not Schumer’s lowest approval rating.  That occurred in March 2000 when The Marist Poll found 39% of registered voters statewide gave Schumer good grades.

The senior Senator from New York owns this seat…..But he needs to back away from the Gillibrand vs Ford thing….and let the voters decide who THEY want….

February 2, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Updates | , , | 2 Comments

New Yorks’ Senator Chuck Schumer’s polling numbers move downward……..

Senator Chuck Schumer’s once rock solid approval rating has taken a slide.  For the first time in nearly nine years, Schumer’s approval rating has fallen below 50%.  According to the latest Marist Poll in New York, 47% of registered voters statewide report Schumer is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  31% rate the job he is doing as fair, and 17% view him as performing poorly.  This is Schumer’s lowest job approval rating since April 2001 when 49% of voters approved of the job he was doing.

Click Here for Complete February 1, 2010 NYS Schumer Poll Release and Tables

The approval rating of New York’s senior senator has declined over the past couple of months. In  Marist’s last survey on January 15th, 51% said Schumer was doing an above average job.  In November, he received a thumbs-up from54% of registered voters in New York, and just last September, his approval rating was 58%.

Schumer’s decline is most pronounced in New York City.  51% of New York City voters currently give Schumer high marks while 57% did the same two weeks ago, 64% in November, and 66% in September.

“Senator Schumer is not immune from the anti-incumbent sentiment among voters, but it would take a major effort to unseat him,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist Institute for Public Opinion.

However, this is not Schumer’s lowest approval rating.  That occurred in March 2000 when The Marist Poll found 39% of registered voters statewide gave Schumer good grades.

The senior Senator from New York owns this seat…..But he needs to back away from the Gillibrand vs Ford thing….and let the voters decide who THEY want….

February 2, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Updates | , , | 2 Comments

Merlin on the New York Senate primary's and general……

Hello Dog!

New York’s Junior Kirsten Gillibrand leads Harold Ford Jr. in a new Statewide Survey. She also leads her likely Republican Opponent Bruce Blakeman unless former Governor George Pataki jumps into this Contest.

Marist Poll

New York Senate Special

Democratic Primary

Incumbent Senator Kirsten Gillibrand  44 %
Former Rep. Harold Ford Jr.  27 %
Jonathan Tasini  5 %
Undecided  25 %

General Election

Former Governor George Pataki (R)  49 %
Incumbent Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D)  43 %
Undecided  8 %

Incumbent Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D)  52 %
Bruce Blakeman (R)  30 %
Undecided  18 %

Former Governor George Pataki (R)  52 %
Former Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D)  35 %
Undecided  13 %

Former Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D)  39 %
Bruce Blakeman (R)  35 %
Undecided  26 %

Full Results at http://maristpoll.marist.edu

Merlin’s Thought:

One thing seems clear: Harold Ford is a much, much weaker General Election Candidate then Senator Gillibrand.

Merlin

The Dog agree’s that right now the undeclared candidate Harold Ford Jr. trails the appointed Senator Gillibrand……But the Dog is worried that Pataki and old GOP retread could still be leading the Junior Senator from New York…..Ford is not out it..being only 17% behind….he can easliy make the democratic primary close by declaring and campaigning…as I mention in the 17th Amendment post…let the voters decide….The Dog is all for Harold Ford Jr. primarying Kirsten Gillibrand……may the best person win…and go on to knock Pataki out…….

February 1, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, PoliticalDogs Merlin, Politics, Polls, Updates, Women | , , , , | 12 Comments

Merlin on the New York Senate primary’s and general……

Hello Dog!

New York’s Junior Kirsten Gillibrand leads Harold Ford Jr. in a new Statewide Survey. She also leads her likely Republican Opponent Bruce Blakeman unless former Governor George Pataki jumps into this Contest.

Marist Poll

New York Senate Special

Democratic Primary

Incumbent Senator Kirsten Gillibrand  44 %
Former Rep. Harold Ford Jr.  27 %
Jonathan Tasini  5 %
Undecided  25 %

General Election

Former Governor George Pataki (R)  49 %
Incumbent Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D)  43 %
Undecided  8 %

Incumbent Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D)  52 %
Bruce Blakeman (R)  30 %
Undecided  18 %

Former Governor George Pataki (R)  52 %
Former Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D)  35 %
Undecided  13 %

Former Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D)  39 %
Bruce Blakeman (R)  35 %
Undecided  26 %

Full Results at http://maristpoll.marist.edu

Merlin’s Thought:

One thing seems clear: Harold Ford is a much, much weaker General Election Candidate then Senator Gillibrand.

Merlin

The Dog agree’s that right now the undeclared candidate Harold Ford Jr. trails the appointed Senator Gillibrand……But the Dog is worried that Pataki and old GOP retread could still be leading the Junior Senator from New York…..Ford is not out it..being only 17% behind….he can easliy make the democratic primary close by declaring and campaigning…as I mention in the 17th Amendment post…let the voters decide….The Dog is all for Harold Ford Jr. primarying Kirsten Gillibrand……may the best person win…and go on to knock Pataki out…….

February 1, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, PoliticalDogs Merlin, Politics, Polls, Updates, Women | , , , , | 12 Comments

From Merlin……First Gillibrand vs Ford direct poll is out…..

Hi Dog again!

This might be interesting for you Dog. Despite the real Threat from Fmr. Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D) Junior Senator from New York State beats him by 19 Points. Gillibrand leads the General Election by 3 against Pataki; Ford Jr. loses in the General.

Marist Poll

New York Senate Special Election

Democratic Primary

Inc. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand  43 %
Fmr. Rep. Harold Ford Jr.  24 %
Undecided  33 %

General Election

Ind. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D)  45 %
Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R)  42 %
Undecided  13 %

Fmr. Governor George Pataki (R)  42 %
Fmr. Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D)  36 %
Undecided  22 %

Job Approval Kirsten Gillibrand (D)

Only 24 % give Gillibrand a good Approval

Full Results can be found at http://maristpoll.marist.edu/

P.S.

I’ll hope we’ll get some Governor Poll also very soon. (so do we )

Merlin

Ok…while the poll is out…..we have few things to add to Merlins comments………

First this from the poll story….

……43% of registered Democratic voters in New York State say they would back Gillibrand in this fall’s Democratic primary while 24% would cast their ballot for Ford.  Although Gillibrand has a double-digit lead over Ford, a notable proportion — 33% — are unsure about whom they’d support……

Woa!…did you see the undecideds???

and then there is this……

Nearly two-thirds of Democrats in New York State say a candidate who is more conservative than most Democrats in the state can still get their vote.  This includes 42% who report it makes no difference to them if a candidate is more conservative and 23% who say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who is more conservative than most Democrats in the state.  35%, though, would be less likely to vote for such a candidate.

and this……

48% of Democratic voters statewide view Kirsten Gillibrand favorably while 20% have an unfavorable impression of her.  32% have either never heard of the senator or are unsure how to rate her.

Her potential opponent for the Democratic nomination has a lot of work to do if he wants to become a household name in the state.  When it comes to Democrats’ impressions of Ford, a whopping 52% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  34%, though, have a positive view of Ford while 14% have an unfavorable impression of him.

While Gillibrand beats Ford even in the city and downstate now…we have to remember that Ford has not campaign one single bit…..hasn’t introduced himself to the voters and still is only 19% behind Gillibrand….this is good for the senator…but could be trouble also…with the left, liberals and some party people throwing everything at Ford not to run…a strong anti-establishment themed run could hurt Gillibrand…..

Good numbers off the bat…but there could be serious trouble up ahead……

I see PoliticalWire has mentioned something about an Indie run for Ford…..such a run would surely fail in the state…..

The Dog

Update:…..more on the numbers from the Observer’s PoliticerNY…..link.

January 15, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, PoliticalDogs Merlin, Politics, Polls, Updates | , , , , | 2 Comments

New Yorks don't really know or like Kirsten Gilibrand…..

That’s the result of a new Marist Poll, and I’m not surprised…Kirsten Gillibrand really doesn’t fit the mold…being from upstate, and  a hard blue-dog democrat, who is trying to come across a bit more to the left….

While the democrats outside New York City have been able to swallow the idea of her as the junior senator from the Empire State…a whole lot of people in New York City haven’t…..

If you’ve been here before you know that I believe Pataki and Rudy are has been as New York republicans…but both, yes both, currently out poll Gillibrand….

My solution…..Schumer won’t like it (he sold her to Paterson)…but she should be premiered…she doesn’t belong in the spot…..

November 23, 2009 Posted by | Government, Politics | , , , | 2 Comments

New Yorks don’t really know or like Kirsten Gilibrand…..

That’s the result of a new Marist Poll, and I’m not surprised…Kirsten Gillibrand really doesn’t fit the mold…being from upstate, and  a hard blue-dog democrat, who is trying to come across a bit more to the left….

While the democrats outside New York City have been able to swallow the idea of her as the junior senator from the Empire State…a whole lot of people in New York City haven’t…..

If you’ve been here before you know that I believe Pataki and Rudy are has been as New York republicans…but both, yes both, currently out poll Gillibrand….

My solution…..Schumer won’t like it (he sold her to Paterson)…but she should be premiered…she doesn’t belong in the spot…..

November 23, 2009 Posted by | Government, Politics | , , , | 2 Comments

Lee Miringoff of the Marist Poll…..

Here’s a piece on the main man at the Marist Poll for those of you interested in Polling…..

November 22, 2009 Posted by | Government, Media, Other Things, Politics | , , | Leave a comment