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Reid closes in Nevada……

Daniel’s Mason-Dixon poll shows that the Senate Majority Leader has closed on the GOP Senate race runners…

A new Mason-Dixon poll in Nevada shows Sue Lowden (R) barely edging Sharron Angle (R) for the Republican Senate nomination to challenge Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV), 30% to 29%, followed by Danny Tarkanian (R) at 23%.

In general election match ups, Lowden leads Reid, 42% to 39%, and Tarkanian leads Reid, 42% to 41%. However, Reid leads Angle, 42% to 39%.

It’s the first poll of this cycle that shows Reid could win re-election.

More….

The Washington Post also does the story……

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May 28, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Updates | , , | 11 Comments

Daniel…..Quick Florida Mason/Dixon Poll Governor race Numbers……

Comment:
Mason/Dixon Poll Florida

McCollum (R) 49 %
Sink (D) 34 %
Undecided  17 %

GOP Primary

McCollum  64 %
Dockery  9 %
Undecided  27 %

http://www2.tbo.com/content/2010/mar/29/mccollum-widens-lead-over-sink-governors-race/news-politics/

March 29, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Politics, Polls, Updates | , , , | 5 Comments

Daniel……More on the Florida Mason-Dixon Poll……..

Some Quick Hits from the Florida M/D Poll Part 2 (PDF will be available later when I post the Poll)

– Health Care opposed by a 54-34 margin

– Obamas Approval 37-52

– Sneak Peak of the Senate Race 2012. Jeb Bush leads Bill Nelson 50-36, Crist leads Nelson 47-37 and Rubio leads Nelson 42-38.

I told ya 2012 will be brutal for Dems in the Senate.

http://news.tboblogs.com/index.php/news/C520/

March 27, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Healthcare, Law, Media, Men, Politics, Polls, Updates | , , | 4 Comments

Daniel….Florida Senate: Some Thoughts and why I TRUST Mason-Dixon more than any other Pollster particular down in Florida…..

Hello Dog!

How far is is Marco Rubio really ahead of Governor Crist?.

Well, not by that huge margins you’re supposed to believe.
I KEPT SAYING patience folks AND there was a Reason behind it.
I knew at some Point this year One of America’s Leading State Pollster (Mason-Dixon) would sooner or later poll down in Florida. BTW, the other Golden State Pollster is Survey USA. You can all Toss these Robo-Polls like RAS or PPP.
We now have the first LIVE INTERVIEWER POLL and it shows Rubio only up by 11.!

Why I trust Mason-Dixon in their Polling PARTICULARLY when it comes to Florida:

1. They nailed the Bush-Gore Race in 2000.

2. They nailed the Bush-Kerry Contest as well as the Senate Race between Martinez and Castor.

3. They nailed Crist-Jim Davis in 2006 and the Senate Race Nelson-Harris

4. They nailed the McCain-Romney GOP Primary in 2008

AND

5. They nailed the Obama-McCain Contest in 2008

They BASICALLY did EVERY Statewide Race RIGHT over the last 8 years.

You need any more answers?

Probably not after I explained above.

Orlando Sentinel / Mason-Dixon Survey (PDF File to be included later in a Link)

Florida Senate 2010

Republican Primary

Former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio  48 %
Incumbent Governor Charlie Crist  37 %
Undecided  15 %

General Election

Incumbent Governor Charlie Crist (R)  50 %
U. S. Rep. Kendrick B. Meek (D)  26 %
Undecided  24 %

Former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio (R)  44 %
U. S. Rep. Kendrick B. Meek (D)  29 %
Undecided  27 %

Link to be posted in the Comment Section of the Post later on.

Major Candidates Websites:

http://www.marcorubio.com/
http://charliecrist.com/
http://www.kendrickmeek.com/

Analysis:

I am surprised at this Poll but I’ll take it.

I explained above.
Interesting: The Party Registration in this Sample is 43 D / 38 R / 19 I
I LOVE THESE Crosstabs. You’ll get them too after you post this Poll.
Here are the Crosstabs:

http://media.tbo.com/pdf/fl310pollpart1.pdf

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0310/35090.html

Daniel G.

I glad you like Mason-Dixon Daniel…..Meek continues to run better against Rubio…..
The Dog

March 26, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates | , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Merlin with an Election Update for Arkansas…….Numerous Updates below!

Hello Dog!

Well, the real Pollsters such as Maxon-Dixon finally starting to poll the competitive Senate Races this year. Congrats to them getting of the huck and polling REAL Races. Usually I don’t take swipes at Pollster but I will do now with Rasmussen. Scott, please stop polling at a likely Voter Model for General Election Match-Ups at least until the Summer. It doesn’t give you credit doing so right now.

Mason-Dixon / Arkansas News Bureau Survey

Arkansas Senate 2010

Incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln  52 %
Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter  34 %
Undecided  12 %

Incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln  63 %
State Senate President Bob Johnson  22 %
Undecided  15 %

Dates: Jan. 18-20 / 303 Likely Primary Voters / MOE 6.0 Percentage Points. The Primary is May 18th. Strangely M/D didn’t poll a GOP Primary but that may well come out tomorrow.

General Election

State Senate Minority Leader Gilbert Baker (R)  43 %
Incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln (D)  39 %
Undecided  18 %

2004 Senate Candidate Jim Holt (R)  43 %
Incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln (D)  37 %
Undecided  20 %

Incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln (D)  40 %
Businessman Curtis Coleman (R)  39 %
Undecided  21 %

Incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln (D)  41 %
Retired Army Officer Conrad Reynolds (R)  38 %
Undecided  21 %

Incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln (D)  43 %
State Senator Kim Hendren (R)  38 %
Undecided  19 %

Incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln (D)  41 %
Businessman Tom Cox (R)  38 %
Undecided  21 %

Dates: Jan. 18-20 / 625 Registered Voters / MOE 4.0 Percentage Points

Full Results here:

http://arkansasnews.com/2010/01/22/poll-shows-lincoln-neck-and-neck-with-gop-challengers/

Merlin’s Take:

Lincoln is in a dire Position no question about it. Merlin hasn’t shifted the Race out of “Toss-Up” into “Lean Republican” mainly because the Republicans haven’t a unified Candidate so far.

To complicate things for Lincoln Merlin getting word of that the lone Republican is the Arkansas Congressional Delegation John Boozman looking at the Race. Boozman who has a very high reputation in Arkansas GOP Circles would likely start the GOP Primary as Frontrunner.

Merlin

Update:.…a hour after this post went up….Merlin got this…..

HUGE News for the GOP in Arkansas. Hotline On Call is just reporting that Rep. John Boozman (R-AR) is making Senate Calls.

Some Candidates in the Race already have assured Boozman that they’ll drop out in favor of him.

Boozman is expecting a Call from NRSC Chair John Cornyn (R-TX) and he’ll meet with Sen. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) on Monday morning.

From my perspective it looks like this is a done Deal.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/01/boozman_making.php

To put this in another Perspective:

Boozman is No. 2 in Popularity in Arkansas in GOP Circles just behind Mike Huckabee.

Lincoln is GONE with his pending Entry. She is not gonna beat Boozman for sure. ( Ok we will see….it’s a bit early )

You can see all comments on this post here:
http://politicaldog101.com/2010/01/22/merlin-with-an-election-update-for-arkansas/#comments

Another Update:……

With Boozman likely IN it’s very unlikely that Halter is challenging Lincoln in the Primary.

The only Democrat who could likely beat Boozman is current Governor Mike Beebe and he just announced at the beginning of the week he’s seeking Reelection.

The Democrats HAVE A MASSIVE Headache now.  (one Nevers knows…do they?….but this is NOT good news for the Dem’s)

Another Update……

Any Democrat who thinks that they can get Boozman’s House District should be thinking twice before entering.

According to Cook Arkansas 3 has a PVI R + 13 which means the District is 13 times more Republican than the Nation.

Another, Another Update:…..
It’s getting funny in Arkansas. Former Rep. Asa Hutchinson (R-AR) is now making calls gauging support for a Congressional Run in the 3rd District which Boozman would vacate when he runs for Senate.

Hutchinson ran for Governor in 2006 losing to current Governor Mike Beebe (D-AR)

http://www.talkbusiness.net/Weblogs/WeblogItemDetail.aspx?WebLogItemID=ea9dd535-43b4-4e89-bc39-18c052f8b613&WeblogID=cc24fc6b-d9a7-4647-b991-53b1cec2eec4

IF Hutchinson runs…. will this mean the Democratic headache goes away Merlin?……he, he, he

January 22, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDogs Merlin, Politics, Polls, Updates, Women | , , , | 12 Comments

From Merlin……Nevada Senate 2010…… Poll shows Majority Leader Harry Reid starts in a hole….

Hello Dog,

Majority Leader Harry Reid starts in a hole In The Nevada Senate Race for 2010, right now, in his Reelection Bid.

Despite not nailing every State in the 2008 Presidential Race….. Merlin ….STILL HAS  HIGH REGARDS for the folks from Mason-Dixon Polling Research Inc. in Washington DC.

I hope they’ll do some more polling this year so that we can toss out some of the sometimes useless Rasmussen Polls. Don’t get me wrong: Rasmussen is still a great Pollster BUT Mason-Dixon as well as Survey USA (I hope they also start polling soon) ARE STILL the best when it comes to State Polling.

Harry Reid…….. if he’s listening…… should take these Numbers SERIOUSLY.

Las Vegas Review Journal / Mason Dixon Poll

Nevada Senate 2010

Republican Primary

Danny Tarkanian  28 %
Sue Lowden  26 %
Sharron Angle  13 %
Mark Amodei  1 %
Bill Parson  0 %
Robin Titus  0 %
Mike Wiley  0 %
John Chachas  0 %
Chuck Kozak  0 %

Nevada Senate 2010 General Election

Danny Tarkanian (R)  49 %
Harry Mason Reid (D)  41 %
Undecided 10 %

Sue Lowden (R)  50 %
Harry Mason Reid (D)  40 %
Undecided 10 %

Sharron Angle (R)  45 %
Harry Mason Reid (D)  40 %
Undecided 15 %

Now that Reid trails EVEN Sharron Angle should be something to tell that Harry is in BAD, BAD Shape.

Reid Favorables 33 %
Reid Unfavorables 52 %

These are Corzine like Numbers. Reid can only hope he passes a good Jobs Bill and the Economy improves

Full Results here:

http://www.lvrj.com/hottopics/politics/polls/jan_2010_1_polls.html

Stay tuned for the Governor Race Poll which should be out tomorrow.

Merlin

January 9, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDogs Merlin, Politics, Polls, The Economy, Updates | , , , , | Leave a comment