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The Massachusetts final numbers for Senate Election….from Merlin…

Hello Dog!

Here are the Final Official certified Results for the Massachusetts Senate Special Election:

State Senator Scott P. Brown (R)  1.168.178 Votes

Attorney General Martha Coakley (D)  1.060.861 Votes

Joseph L. Kennedy (L)  22.388 Votes

Source: Massachusetts Secretary of State

Merlin

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February 4, 2010 Posted by | Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDogs Merlin, Politics, Updates | , , | Leave a comment

Fact….every other major politcian in Masachusetts is a Democrat……

Did we forget to mention that?

Massachusetts is the home of the Kennedy family, and routinely votes for the Democratic Party in federal elections: it was the most populous state to have an all-Democratic Congressional delegation (ten representatives and two senators). Democrats hold all of the state’s other state-wide elected offices as well, making Massachusetts the only state where all congressional seats and all statewide-elected offices are held by a single party. As of the 2006 election, the Republican party holds less than 13% of the seats in both legislative houses of the General Court: in the House, the balance is 141 Democratic to 19 Republican, and in the Senate, 35–5.[56]

Although Republicans held the governor’s office continuously from 1991 to 2007, they have mostly been among the most liberal Republican leaders in the nation, especially William Weld (the first of four recent Republican governors). In presidential elections, Massachusetts supported Republicans through 1924, and was considered a swing state until the 1980s. More recently, it has gradually shifted to the Democratic Party since 1988. In the 2004 election, Massachusetts gave native son John Kerry 61.9% of the vote and his largest margin of victory in any state.[57] In 2008, President Barack Obama carried the state with 61.8% of the vote.[58] In a stunning upset in the 2010 Senate Special Election widely held to represent a repudiation of Obama’s policies, Republican Scott Brown defeated Democrat Martha Coakley by a 52% to 47% margin.

From Wiki ……

So after all of the dancing by the Republican’s in the street…and the BS wishes…..the fact remains that Scott Brown is gonna have to get along with the Democrats…who own the state political process….

Just wanted to mention that fact………

January 21, 2010 Posted by | Government, Media, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Updates | , , | 5 Comments

After the Massachusetts vote….The President just wants a Healthcare Bill…..any kind of Healthcare Bill……He'll take what he can get….

From The Hill.Com…….

Earlier in the day, senior Senate Democratic aides said White House officials had been pressing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) behind the scenes to take up the Senate-passed healthcare bill.

But the White House strategy seemed to soften in the face of stiff resistance from rank-and-file House Democrats. Many have criticized a range of provisions in the Senate measure, including a tax on high-cost insurance plans and less strict regulations on insurance coverage for abortions.

Seeking to quell fighting within his party, Obama in his interview with ABC News urged lawmakers to focus on the most popular parts while leaving aside controversial measures such as the tax on so-called Cadillac insurance plans.

“We know that we need insurance reform. The health insurance companies are taking advantage of people. We know that we have to have some form of cost containment because if we don’t, then our budgets are going to blow up,” he said.

“And we know that small businesses are going to need help so that they can provide health insurance for their families. Those are the core, some of the core elements of this bill.”

An option the White House floated earlier in the week was for the House to pass the Senate bill, then move changes in a separate bill that would be forced through the Senate using special budget rules that require only a simple majority.

The problem with this Bill from the beginning has been that the White House and Obama in particular was unwilling to sell the darn thing to the public….after the Brown will…c orrectly or incorrectly …..Congressmen will no longer stand in front while Obama ‘cools out’ while they take the hits on the Bill….no way….

Rep. Chris Van Hollen (Md.), the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said the solution might be to change the party’s message by focusing on individual reforms in the massive healthcare bill.

Van Hollen noted to reporters that polls show voters support the individual reforms of the Democrats’ healthcare package.

Yep…you got it Rep. Van Hollen…will some ring up the President a tell him he’s got to let the American people know this….so that the democratic legislators can breath again…..

Van Hollen said Democrats need to “make sure people understand why we’re moving forward on this.”

I said a long time ago when the thing started….in the end…President Obama will settle for a Bill….any Bill…just the passage of… ‘A’ Bill…and that’s what’s going to happen….

January 20, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Healthcare, Law, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, The Economy, Updates | , , , , | 2 Comments

After the Massachusetts vote….The President just wants a Healthcare Bill…..any kind of Healthcare Bill……He’ll take what he can get….

From The Hill.Com…….

Earlier in the day, senior Senate Democratic aides said White House officials had been pressing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) behind the scenes to take up the Senate-passed healthcare bill.

But the White House strategy seemed to soften in the face of stiff resistance from rank-and-file House Democrats. Many have criticized a range of provisions in the Senate measure, including a tax on high-cost insurance plans and less strict regulations on insurance coverage for abortions.

Seeking to quell fighting within his party, Obama in his interview with ABC News urged lawmakers to focus on the most popular parts while leaving aside controversial measures such as the tax on so-called Cadillac insurance plans.

“We know that we need insurance reform. The health insurance companies are taking advantage of people. We know that we have to have some form of cost containment because if we don’t, then our budgets are going to blow up,” he said.

“And we know that small businesses are going to need help so that they can provide health insurance for their families. Those are the core, some of the core elements of this bill.”

An option the White House floated earlier in the week was for the House to pass the Senate bill, then move changes in a separate bill that would be forced through the Senate using special budget rules that require only a simple majority.

The problem with this Bill from the beginning has been that the White House and Obama in particular was unwilling to sell the darn thing to the public….after the Brown will…c orrectly or incorrectly …..Congressmen will no longer stand in front while Obama ‘cools out’ while they take the hits on the Bill….no way….

Rep. Chris Van Hollen (Md.), the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said the solution might be to change the party’s message by focusing on individual reforms in the massive healthcare bill.

Van Hollen noted to reporters that polls show voters support the individual reforms of the Democrats’ healthcare package.

Yep…you got it Rep. Van Hollen…will some ring up the President a tell him he’s got to let the American people know this….so that the democratic legislators can breath again…..

Van Hollen said Democrats need to “make sure people understand why we’re moving forward on this.”

I said a long time ago when the thing started….in the end…President Obama will settle for a Bill….any Bill…just the passage of… ‘A’ Bill…and that’s what’s going to happen….

January 20, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Healthcare, Law, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, The Economy, Updates | , , , , | 2 Comments

Aftermath……Coakley loses…..Obama takes it on the Chin….and the reality vs the perception……

Last night one thing actually happened….Martha Coakley a Democrat….lost the Massachusetts Special Election for the vacated Senate seat to Scott Brown, a Republican……

The fact is as Nate Silver over at FiveThirtySeven relates……
Overall, we have a 31-point swing in the vote to explain: from Barack Obama’s roughly 26-point victory in November 2008, to Martha Coakley’s roughly 5-point loss today.

At a bare minimum, 10 of those points must be assigned to the national environment.Generic ballot polling suggests that the Democrats’ position has worsened by a net of 10 points since November 2008, from winning the House popular vote by 10 points in 2008 to being dead even with Republicans today.

Also at a bare minimum, 11 points of blame should be assigned to Coakley. That represents the difference between the 58 percent of vote that she received at her high-water mark in the polls to the 47 percent she received on Election Day. A fairly large number of voters, it appears, actually turned away from Coakley; it was not just a matter of undecided ones turning toward Brown.

That leaves us with 10 more points of blame to assign; let’s just dole those out as evenly as possible, giving 3 more points to Coakley, 3 more points to the national environment, and 4 to Massachusetts-specific special contingencies — it gets the extra point because it hadn’t received any yet.

That would make the final score: national environment 13, Coakley 14, special circumstances 4.

If you follow through on the math, this would suggest that Coakley would have won by about 8 points, rather than losing by 5, had the national environment not deteriorated so significantly for Democrats. It suggests that the Democrats would have won by 9 points, rather than losing by 5, had the candidate been someone other than Coakley. And it suggests that the race would have been a 1-point loss (that is, basically too close to call), rather than a 5-point loss, even if Coakley had run such a bad campaign and even if the national environment had deteriorated as much as it has, but had there not been the unusual circumstances associated with this particular election.

Folks….. I think Silver nails the analytical side of yesterday…..

Bad candidate, bad economic enviroment, bad campaign = one loss……..

Now we deal with the media and perceptions….

President Obama went to campaign for Coakley last Sunday….even the Dog suggested that….but it was too little…. too late (remember NJ?)……but the media and the politicians are at the point….they see bloods in the water…

….they are viewing last night not as a bad run, and a bad economic event…..but as referendum on Healthcare and the President….of which in reality it is neither….

Martha Coakley pissed her voters off….as an P1 commenter pointed out yesterday…no Mass AG has won election to higher offiice….as Silver pointed our…even democratic voters…in a democratic town!

Now I checked the papers and myself here….the Dog joined the crowd last night in pointing out that the perspective is going to point President Barack Obama…..I’m just as guilty as everyone else in jumping to perseptions…I admit it….

The second story we get today ….to pile on the President, is that the nominee for TSA Head, Erroll Southers is withdrawing his name….Oops!….the President takes another hit!

Then I go further down the page, and I see another punch thrown at the Obama adminbstration…..A complaint that the increase in the minimum wage is the reason for higher unemployment?

It’s gonna go on like this for a while…..

This the aniversity of President Obama taking his oath of office……

It is also the day after a senate race in one state is going to be tied to the ENTIRE DEMOCRATIC AGENDA….whether it deserves to …..or not…..

The Dog suggests that if President Obama and the democratic party wants to continue (and they will ) with any chance of suscess..they better sit down with the leader of their party and point out that he cannot afford to stay above the fry any longer…..even if it’s to work to support and get better candidates (a prime example is Kirsten Gillibrand in NY…let Ford primary her…let the voters pick the stronger candidate… less the same thing happen in New York also )

The race was the race…it’s over …the Democrat lost…the perscption war now begins with the GOP embolden to continue attacking everything and anything with Obama’s name on it…and all things Democratic…..

The economy has given birth to pent-up anger…..bad candidates and no help from the leader of the party may doom this country to a halt in eventing political and a JimmY carter one term wonder Presidency……

Just for the record…even with loss…the Democrats maintain their majority in BOTH HOUSES…….


January 20, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Healthcare, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, The Economy, Updates, Women | , , , , , , | 12 Comments

Scott Brown wins the Mass Special Senate Seat!……

In a result that no one…I really mean …..no one could have forcasted…..Scott Brown, the Republican running for the Senate Seat held by the Teddy Kennedy…….has won…..

The Dog congratulates Scott Brown, the winner……

Martha Coakley the state’s Attorney General, and a Democrat…has managed to do what was done in the last two major races in New Jersey and Virgina…… she  literally threw the race away…….going vacation during the Holidays, making the Curt Shillings ‘Yankee’ mikstake…and not campaigning seriously until the last week…..( nevermind that Obama made the trip on Sunday….he did that in New Jersey, and Democrats lost that one also)

This from the Boston Globe……

Republican Scott Brown pulled off one of the biggest upsets in Massachusetts political history tonight, defeating Democrat Martha Coakley to become the state’s next United States senator and potentially derail President Obama’s hopes for a health care overhaul.

The victory caps a dramatic surge in recent days as Brown, a state lawmaker from Wrentham once thought to have little chance of beating a popular attorney general, roared ahead of Coakley to become the first Republican senator elected from Massachusetts since 1972.

With 93 percent of precincts reporting, Brown had 52 percent and Coakley had 47 percent.

In a race that became the center of national attention, Brown’s win is widely seen as a vote against the president’s agenda from one of the most reliably Democratic states. And in a particularly ironic twist, Brown, in succeeding Edward M. Kennedy — the late liberal lion who deemed health care “the cause of my life” — may well be the 41st vote to prevent the Democratic-led plan from moving forward.

While Republicans around the country may be excited….the Dog says this…….

ok… tonight…you  people sound like the Democrats right after Obama won….the Democrats are not going to table everything and just sit there with their thumbs up their you know what……

Also…….

…..This is a message to one person…..

PRESIDENT OBAMA…He can no longer just cruise above the fray…he has to get his hands dirty….to sell his programs (starting with Healthcare) and providing cover for the troops in Congress…they can survive together..or they sink together….

Note:……here’s a link to th Boston Globe chrono……

Ah, this is another one Merlin the magician got right…in the end……nobody could grasp this one…and most of the pollster’s… hedgeed their bets……

January 19, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Government, Healthcare, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, PoliticalDogs Merlin, Politics, Polls, The Economy, Updates | , , , , , , , | 11 Comments

Merlin on what to watch for today in the Massachusetts special senate race….

Hello Dog and good morning!

Election Day has arrived in the Bay State to fill the Seat vacated by the late Senator Edward M. “Ted” Kennedy (D).

Here is Merlin’s Exclusive Election Preview: What should we watch for?

1. What we know from the Polls is that Independent Voters (the largest Voting Bloc in Massachusetts) are breaking heavily for Republican Scott Brown….. so how much can Coakley afford lose, and still win the Election (70-30?; 65-35?; 60-40?)

2. Democratic Intensity has popped up in recent Days…. but by how much?

3. How organized are the Democrats in Massachusetts?

4. High Turnout doesn’t necessarily mean Coakley pulls it out……It could also mean Indies are fed up with Washington, and want to send a message …..so be aware of Reports of High Turnout, the breakdown of that number is VERY important.

Merlin’s Exclusive Election Night Prediction:

Scott Brown (R)  50 %
Martha Coakley (D)  47 %
Joe Kennedy (L)  3 %

Note…………

I’ll be putting up an Election Night Results Thread some time around 6pm ET.

Merlin

The Dog hopes for Coakley, with dem’s coming to her rescue….But…the Dog can see a Brown victory………

Update:…..It’s snowing lightly  in the Bay State this morning…..

January 19, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Government, Media, PoliticalDogs Merlin, Politics, Polls, Updates | , | 8 Comments

Ok…enough already!….Merlin with the summation of the last polling in the Mass Senate race…..

Hi Dog!

Here my Summary of the Massachusetts Senate Polls:

Public Policy Polling   (51-46)  =    Brown + 5
American Research Group   (52-45)   =    Brown + 7
Politico/Insider Advantage   (52-43)  =    Brown + 9
Daily Kos/Research 2000   (48-48)   =   Tie
7News/Suffolk University    (50-46)   =   Brown + 4
Cross Target/Pajamas   (52-42)   =   Brown + 10
Inside Medford/MRG   (51-41)    = Brown + 10
Rasmussen Reports   (49-47)   =   Coakley + 2

EVERY Poll this week has Brown ahead (except Koss). Democrats need a “Clinton New Hampshire Miracle” to win.

Update:…….

One more Poll for tomorrows Massachusetts Senate Special Election. (I really do hope that this is the Final Poll on this Race). This time it’s coming from American Research Group.

The Numbers (previous Numbers in parentheses):

State Senator Scott P. Brown (R)    52 % vs  (48 %)
Attorney General Martha Coakley (D)   45 %  vs  (45 %)
Joseph L. Kennedy (L)  2 % vs  (2 %)
Undecided  1 %   vs (5 %)

Full Results at…..

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com

Merlin….

From the Dog…this from a New York Times piece.…..

Obama needs Coakley, the state’s attorney general, to win to deny Republicans the ability to block his initiatives — specifically the near-complete health care plan — with a filibuster-sustaining 41st Republican vote. A Coakley loss also would be an embarrassment, particularly because Obama has put so much political capital on the line.

A Suffolk University survey taken Saturday and Sunday shows Brown with double-digit leads in three counties the poll identified as bellwethers: Gardner, Fitchburg and Peabody. But internal statewide polls for both sides show a dead-heat.

Backers of Coakley and Brown worked feverishly to identify their supporters and persuade undecided voters to move their way. Each side deployed armies of volunteers to man phone banks and trudge door to door through ice and snow to encourage people to vote.

and this from Jerome Armstrong @Mydd.Com ……

Ya kind of have to chuckle at the two-step pattern that the Obama administration does with these ‘losses’ ahead of time. Gibbs/Axlerod/Emanual go off the record to lower the boom that they expect Coakley to lose, with only an Obama-inspired miracle to to hope for… and then trot Bill Burton out to say on the record, ‘no no no’ and play the line. For the media, its a game, a bit of a secret they are in on, and so, who is the joke on?

and finally this from the Washington Post……

The last-minute tussles were sideshows to a campaign that has centered on Brown’s effort to tap into voter anger with soaring unemployment and multi-trillion-dollar deficit spending. That’s helped Brown win a large majority of the independent voters, who make up about half the electorate in Massachusetts.

The Dog….

Update..…Manilla Calling over at P1 with these tidbits…..

Confidence is high but their are a lot of Democrats who will be out and I still wonder about the demographics. Weather looks fair to poor and if that effects turnout it is supposed to help Brown. At this point if he doesn’t win it will be a surprise. Even with the President yesterday morale is horrible over there. It’s almost like a death watch. People have to get out and vote with the radio talk show crowd now spouting that if Brown can win big enough he can be certified quickly.

Add to that the fact that MA AG’s have been unable to win any office higher than AG in decades could be at work right now too.  You make enemies you do not even know about.

January 18, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Government, Healthcare, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, PoliticalDogs Merlin, Politics, Polls, The Economy, Updates | , , , , , | Leave a comment

Merlin on the final polling numbers……..Who knows?

Hello Dog!

The Final Pre-Election Poll of tomorrows Massachusetts Senate Special Election has just been released. I doubt Rasmussen will release another one. Here are the Numbers:

Research 2000 / DailyKos Survey

Massachusetts Senate Special Election

State Senator Scott P. Brown (R)  48 %
Attorney General Martha Coakley (D)  48 %
Joseph L. Kennedy (L)  3 %
Undecided  1 %

Full Results at http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2010/1/17/MA/429

Key Demographic Group

Independent Voters

Brown (R)  65 %
Coakley (D)  29 %
Kennedy (L)  5 %
Undecided  1 %

That’s HUGE.

Note:

Sources telling Merlin MSNBC’s Hardball Talk Show Host spoke with Suffolk Pollster today and they’re saying Brown is leading in the 3 Bellwether Counties by DOUBLE DIGITS. Blowout???

Merlin’s Take:

After seeing this Race tied last weekend and during this week we could have an early Call tomorrow possible before 9.30pm ET.

Kiss that Seat Goodbye Democrats.

Merlin

The Dog notes that while the poll is by demoratic liberal Blog DailyKos….the numbers show the race to be dead even…that could be a sign that in the end, the denmocrats are coming home. While Merlin cites the MSNBC rumor…the Dog sticks with the thought that the democratic turnout will be the decider of this race…democrats out number republicans and indie’s in the state….with some of the negative ads against Brown, and Obama coming to town….the dem’s know their votes are needed…..it’s going to be a close one….no doubt….

January 18, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, PoliticalDogs Merlin, Politics, Polls, Women | , , , , | 2 Comments

Charlie Cook hedges his bets on Massachsetts senate race……with slight Brown lead….

Here’s his latest call…….

January 17, 2010
Massachusetts Special Election Update This past Thursday, January 14, The Cook Political Report moved the open Massachusetts Senate seat rating from Lean Democrat to Toss Up, having moved it from Solid Democrat to Lean Democratic on January 7. We continue to see this race as very much of a Toss Up, with Republican state Sen. Scott Brown holding onto a very narrow, single-digit lead over Democratic state Attorney General Martha Coakley. Given the vagaries of voter turnout, particularly in lower participation level special elections, this race could still go either way, but we put a finger on the scale for Brown. Last minute Democratic attacks on Brown have driven his negatives up some and slightly diminished the incredible intensity of support that Brown enjoyed, but it looks more likely than not to hold.

Note:…..The Dog added the italics……

Note#2.……The Dog thinks he’s trying to have it both ways…..he, he, he……

January 17, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Government, Media, Men, Politics, Polls, Updates | , , | 12 Comments