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Merlin on the New Hampshire Senate and House races…….

Hello Dog and good morning!

There could be a huge change in the New Hampshire Congressional Delegation according to a new Statewide Survey. Things don’t look good for Democrats.

WMUR / Granite State Poll Survey (University of New Hampshire Survey Center)

New Hampshire Senate 2010

General Election

Former NH Attorney General Kelly A. Ayotte (R)  41 %
U. S. Rep. Paul W. Hodes (D)  33 %
Others  1 %
Undecided  25 %

U. S. Rep. Paul W. Hodes (D)  38 %
Ovide Marc Lamontagne (R)  29 %
Others  2 %
Undecided  30 %

U. S. Rep. Paul W. Hodes (D)  36 %
Businessman Jim Bender (R)  27 %
Others  2 %
Undecided  35 %

U. S. Rep. Paul W. Hodes (D)  34 %
Businessman William H. “Bill” Binnie (R)  30 %
Others  2 %
Undecided  33 %

Note: Unfortunately yet another Poll without an Republican Primary Poll. I’ll hope that changes soon.

New Hampshire 1st Congressional District

General Election

Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta (R)  43 %
U. S. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D)  33 %
Others  2 %
Undecided  22 %

Rich Ashooh (R)  36 %
U. S. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D)  33 %
Others  3 %
Undecided  28 %

Bruce Bestani (R)  36 %
U. S. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D)  32 %
Others  2 %
Undecided  30 %

RNC Committeeman Sean Mahoney (R)  39 %
U. S. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D)  32 %
Others  1 %
Undecided  28 %

New Hampshire 2nd Congressional District

Former U. S. Rep. Charles “Charlie” Bass (R)  39 %
Ann McLane Kuster (D)  28 %
Others  1 %
Undecided  32 %

Former U. S. Rep. Charles “Charlie” Bass (R)  37 %
’04 Candidate Katarina Swett (D)  30 %
Others  1 %
Undecided  33 %

’08 Candidate Jennifer Horn (R)  28 %
Ann McLane Kuster (D)  25 %
Others  3 %
Undecided  44 %

’04 Candidate Katerina Swett (D)  30 %
’08 Candidate Jennifer Horn (R)  26 %
Others  0 %
Undecided  43 %

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2010_winter_congapp20810.pdf

Merlin’s Observation:

Hodes can’t break 40 % in the Senate Race; Shea-Porter is in huge trouble if Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta is the Nominee and Charlie Bass looks like he can grab his old House Seat again. Things for Democrats look ominous in the Granite State.

Merlin

The Dog reminds those of you checking this post …..these comments are from the pollsters…..

…….But with more than a year until the election, most voters have not yet decided on who they will support. Only 10% say they

have definitely decided who they plan to vote for, 11% say they are leaning toward a candidate, and 78% say they have

considered some candidates, but are still trying to decide who to support.

February 9, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Media, PoliticalDogs Merlin, Politics, Polls, Updates | , , , | 15 Comments

Merlin with another New Hampshire Poll……

Hello Dog!

Finally we’ve gotten the first Poll on the Republican New Hampshire Primary and it shows although Ex Attorney Genral Kelly A. Ayotte leads her lead isn’t all that big. Ayotte also leads Hodes in a potential General Election Match-Up while Hodes leads the other two Republican declared Candidates Lamontagne & Binnie by 10 Points. Meanwhile Governor John Lynch is cruising to Reelection.

Research 2000 / DailyKos Survey

New Hampshire Senate 2010

Republican Primary

former Attorney General Kelly A. Ayotte  36 %
Ovide Marc Lamontagne  27 %
William H. “Bill” Binnie  4 %
Undecided  33 %

General Election

former Attorney General Kelly A. Ayotte (R)  46 %
U. S. Rep. Paul W. Hodes (D)  39 %
Undecided  11 %

U. S. Rep. Paul W. Hodes (D)  46 %
Ovide Marc Lamontagne (R)  36 %
Undecided  13 %

U. S. Rep. Paul W. Hodes (D)  45 %
William H. “Bill” Binnie (R)  35 %
Undecided  15 %

New Hampshire Governor 2010

Incumbent Governor John Lynch (D)  59 %
Businessman Jack Kimball (R)  13 %
Undecided  26 %

Full Results can be found here:

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2010/2/23/NH/440

Note: The Republican U. S. Senate Primary Poll is the first one we’ve got so far.

Interesting Thought:

As the Dog mentioned earlier WMUR / UNH will release Results for those Races next week.

Merlin

February 5, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDogs Merlin, Politics, Polls, Updates | , , , | 4 Comments

SE on the New Hamsphire Races……

From SE……

Here’s a rundown of how I think the NH races will go:

Governor: Incumbent Democratic Governor John Lynch is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Lynch. On the GOP side, Businessman Jack Kimball and Religious Right Activist and Author Karen Testerman are in the running. I expect Kimball to prevail 63-37 and lose by a lesser than expected margin(59-41) to Lynch. DEM HOLD.

US Senate: Incumbent GOP US Senator Judd Gregg is retiring. On the GOP side, former State Representative Tom Alciere, former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, Businessmen Jim Bender and Bill Binnie, and former State Board of Education Chair Ovide LaMontage are in the running. The Democrats have unified behind US Representative Paul Hodes. The Libertarians have unified behind Realtor Ken Blevens. I expect LaMontage to teabag Ayotte to death in the Primary and defeat Hodes 51-47. GOP HOLD.

NH-01: Incumbent Democratic Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Shea-Porter. On the GOP side, Defense Contractor Rich Ashooh, Businessman and Economist Peter Bearce, International Banking Executive Bob Bestani, Cook Mike Castaldo, Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta, and Kevin Rondeau are in the running. I expect Guinta to handily defeat the rest of the field and prevail over Shea-Porter 53-47. GOP GAIN.

NH-02: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Paul Hodes is running for US Senate. On the Democratic side, State Representative John DeJoie, Attorney Ann McLane Kuster, and Political Consultant Katrina Swett are in the running. On the GOP side, former Congressman Charlie Bass, former State Representative Bob Giuda, Bristol Town Budget Committee Chairman Andrew Hemingway, Radio Talk Show Host Jennifer Horn, and Milford School Board Member Len Mannino are in the running. The Libertarians have unified behind Howie Wilson. I expect DeJoie and Bass to emerge from their Primaries. I predict Bass over DeJoie 50-48. GOP GAIN.

January 21, 2010 Posted by | Government, Media, Other Things, PoliticalDogs SE posts, Politics, Updates | , , | Leave a comment