A week after the news broke of the American raid that killed Osama bin Laden, bettors at Intrade, a political futures market, are barely any more likely to think that Barack Obama will win re-election.
As of this writing, Mr. Obama’s Democrats are given a 60.3 percent chance of winning next year’s presidential election. By contrast, the day before Bin Laden was killed, the market’s estimation of the Democrats’ chances had been 59.7 percent. That’s less than a full percentage point worth of improvement. Is this the appropriate reaction?
The “bounce” in Mr. Obama’s approval ratings has been fairly small — probably about 5 or 6 percentage points on average, although with some variability from survey to survey. I had been expecting a somewhat larger reaction.
At the same time, as I’ve repeatedly advised, the bounce is not necessarily the right lens through which to perceive the long-run electoral impact of the news.
The attraction of bounces is that they seem easy to quantify. Mr. Obama’s approval rating in the Gallup tracking poll improved from 46 percent before the Bin Laden announcement to a peak of 52 percent, before ticking down to 51 percent, where it remains now. There have been a few other things going on — the release of Mr. Obama’s long-form birth certificate, the tornadoes in Alabama, various economic reports, and so forth. But the Bin Laden coverage (rightly) has dominated the news, and there’s no doubt that most of the movement in Mr. Obama’s polling is attributable to it.
As time passes, however, the bounce will become blurrier, for two reasons. First, its magnitude will become smaller. And second, other events will intervene, and will either favorably or unfavorably affect Mr. Obama’s numbers.
Perhaps if we were able to control for all the other factors, the bounce would look something like this……
But my nose tell’s me right now Mike Huckabee is in the lead…..
While Mitt Romney is definitely qualified to run the place…
Huckabee stands in front of the line without half trying….
And I agree the fields weak….
Huckabee’s got to May I believe to let Fox News know if he’s going or not….
We actually have about 10 months before the primaries kick off and the GOP needs to start looking at who’s going to make the run
against President Obama….
I really think this is Obama’s to lose…
Which is unlikely ….
But you never know…..
Is anyone surprised with this?
A new report from Gallup finds that President Obama has remained more popular relative to Congress than all of his predecessors except George H. W. Bush, with an average 26 point gap between the president’s approval and that of Congress.
“Given all this, it appears that Obama is performing above par relative to the broader negative political climate, although the reason is not clear. His approval rating has been below 50% for most of this year — not good for his party heading into midterm elections — but given that Congress’ ratings are hovering around 20%, it could be much worse.”
It’s about time!
Now if the feeling can spread……
This would help the Democrats ….
Democrats across America can hope that California is a harbinger of things to come. Because if there is one clearly discernible trend towards the Democrats in the 2010 midterms, it can be found in the Golden State.
Consider the Senate race between incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer and GOP challenger Carly Fiorina:
Boxer has pulled into a narrow lead in recent weeks, a fact confirmed even by Rasmussen and SurveyUSA, two pollsters that have been quite bullish on GOP prospects this cycle. In August, the four polls of the race split evenly between Boxer and her challenger. In September, Boxer has led in the last eight polls released on the contest, creeping into the 50s in this weekend’s Los Angeles Times poll, which had her up by nine.
What’s going on here? Well, it could be any combination of three things:
- Recalcitrant Democrats might finally be coming home. Tom Jensen at PPP noted when they released their poll (PDF file) this month that the enthusiasm gap in California is not as acute as they have seen it elsewhere. The gap between the 2008 vote margin (+25 Obama) and the current sample by PPP (+21 Obama) was pretty minimal.
- Boxer always seems to close well. It is an article of faith among California Democrats that Boxer does better on Election Day than the polls would seem to predict. I checked out that theorem back in June, and found that (in 2004, at least) that was precisely the case.
- Boxer has been on the air in the second half of the month with a brutally effective ad regarding Fiorina’s tenure at HP:
A new Boston Globe poll in Massachusetts finds Charlie Baker (R) edging Gov. Deval Patrick (D) in the race for governor, 35% to 34%, with Tim Cahill (I) at 11% and Jill Stein (G) at 4%.
“The poll indicates that voter turnout on Election Day will be key. The current trend favors Baker, because Republicans are much more enthusiastic about the election than Democrats. Some 78 percent of likely GOP voters say they are excited about the race, compared with only 37 percent of likely Democratic voters.”
Said pollster Andrew Smith: “The energy in this election is certainly on the Republican side. That spells trouble for Patrick.”
It sure is easier to be in the public’s eye as Secretary of State then as President…..
By any measure — favorability ratings or job approval — Americans by a sizable margin have warmer views of the secretary of state than they do of the president. This is of little use to Clinton beyond bragging rights, but among Hillary ’08 fans there is some satisfaction that the woman Obama once cut down as “likable enough” is now more liked than he is. Depending on the measure and the poll, she leads him by roughly 10 to 25 percentage points.
To understand why, look no further than their calendars for Monday. The president was in Alabama and Mississippi, trying again to change the public perception that his administration has been weak in its response to the oil spill. The secretary of state was in Washington receiving plaudits for being a “passionate leader” and for taking a “resolute and genuine” stand against human trafficking and slavery.
In the ceremonial Ben Franklin Room of the State Department, the passionate and resolute Clinton vowed her commitment “to abolishing this horrible crime” against human dignity. “Traffickers must be brought to justice,” she said.
For a public figure, few issues are as politically safe; the slavery and exploitation lobby, after all, was unlikely to issue a rebuttal. Clinton finished her day Monday with a speech on the need for help in sub-Saharan Africa; no criticism from the keep-Africa-poor movement was heard.
Contrast that with Obama, who had only grim tidings for Gulf Coast residents about the BP oil spill. He spoke to them of a “fear that it could have a long-term impact on a way of life that has been passed on for generations.”
Give Obama points for honesty, but that’s not going to boost his poll numbers.
Previous secretaries of state Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice were both more popular than their boss, President George W. Bush. But such a trend is not universal: Warren Christopher didn’t have ratings as high as his boss, President Bill Clinton.
Hillary Clinton helped her situation by sticking to relatively low-profile issues. While the White House drove the divisive policies such as Afghanistan, she has busied herself in quieter corners of the world, enhancing the perception that she’s above the political fray.
From the Atlantic Magazine…..
Daniel…..Colorado Senate: INCREDIBLE POLL STUNNER: Weld County District Attorney Kenneth R. "Ken" Buck (R-CO) leads former Lt. Governor Jane Norton (R-CO) in the Republican Senate Primary
Did anyone remember my little Analysis in my Polling Summary about former Colorado Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton (R-CO)?
I said quote:“Jane Norton could be Sue Lowden, Part Deux”
It’s incredible HOW RIGHT I AM
A new Survey from Republican Independent Pollster Magellan Strategies (R, and they did a heck of a job in the GOP Primaries already this year) shows Weld County District Attorney Kenneth R. “Ken” Buck (R-CO) ahead by 10 Points over Jane Norton (R-CO) in the Republican Senate Primary.
I case you don’t know: I ENDORSED BUCK FOR SENATE IN MAY.
Magellan Strategies Survey (R)
Weld County District Attorney Kenneth R. “Ken” Buck 42 %
Former Colorado Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton 32 %
Undecided 26 %
Amazing! Daniel…..Another male over female thing?……..Lets see if it sticks……
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