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Nate Silver on the Obama bounce…..

Beyond Obama’s Bin Laden Bounce

By NATE SILVER

A week after the news broke of the American raid that killed Osama bin Laden, bettors at Intrade, a political futures market, are barely any more likely to think that Barack Obama will win re-election.

As of this writing, Mr. Obama’s Democrats are given a 60.3 percent chance of winning next year’s presidential election. By contrast, the day before Bin Laden was killed, the market’s estimation of the Democrats’ chances had been 59.7 percent. That’s less than a full percentage point worth of improvement. Is this the appropriate reaction?

The “bounce” in Mr. Obama’s approval ratings has been fairly small — probably about 5 or 6 percentage points on average, although with some variability from survey to survey. I had been expecting a somewhat larger reaction.

At the same time, as I’ve repeatedly advised, the bounce is not necessarily the right lens through which to perceive the long-run electoral impact of the news.

The attraction of bounces is that they seem easy to quantify. Mr. Obama’s approval rating in the Gallup tracking poll improved from 46 percent before the Bin Laden announcement to a peak of 52 percent, before ticking down to 51 percent, where it remains now. There have been a few other things going on — the release of Mr. Obama’s long-form birth certificate, the tornadoes in Alabama, various economic reports, and so forth. But the Bin Laden coverage (rightly) has dominated the news, and there’s no doubt that most of the movement in Mr. Obama’s polling is attributable to it.

As time passes, however, the bounce will become blurrier, for two reasons. First, its magnitude will become smaller. And second, other events will intervene, and will either favorably or unfavorably affect Mr. Obama’s numbers.

Perhaps if we were able to control for all the other factors, the bounce would look something like this……

More….

From Politicaldog101….

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May 10, 2011 Posted by | Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Media, Men, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates | , , , | Leave a comment

Daniel…..Colorado Senate: INCREDIBLE POLL STUNNER: Weld County District Attorney Kenneth R. "Ken" Buck (R-CO) leads former Lt. Governor Jane Norton (R-CO) in the Republican Senate Primary

Hello Folks!

Did anyone remember my little Analysis in my Polling Summary about former Colorado Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton (R-CO)?

I said quote:“Jane Norton could be Sue Lowden, Part Deux”

It’s incredible HOW RIGHT I AM

A new Survey from Republican Independent Pollster Magellan Strategies (R, and they did a heck of a job in the GOP Primaries already this year) shows Weld County District Attorney Kenneth R. “Ken” Buck (R-CO) ahead by 10 Points over Jane Norton (R-CO) in the Republican Senate Primary.

I case you don’t know: I ENDORSED BUCK FOR SENATE IN MAY.

Magellan Strategies Survey (R)

Colorado Senate

Republican Primary

Weld County District Attorney Kenneth R. “Ken” Buck  42 %
Former Colorado Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton  32 %
Undecided  26 %

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/Magellan-Colorado-US-Senate-GOP-Primary-Survey-Release-and-Toplines-060910-Final.pdf

Daniel G.

Amazing! Daniel…..Another male over female thing?……..Lets see if it sticks……

June 10, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates, Women | , , , , | 11 Comments

Daniel…..Colorado Senate: INCREDIBLE POLL STUNNER: Weld County District Attorney Kenneth R. “Ken” Buck (R-CO) leads former Lt. Governor Jane Norton (R-CO) in the Republican Senate Primary

Hello Folks!

Did anyone remember my little Analysis in my Polling Summary about former Colorado Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton (R-CO)?

I said quote:“Jane Norton could be Sue Lowden, Part Deux”

It’s incredible HOW RIGHT I AM

A new Survey from Republican Independent Pollster Magellan Strategies (R, and they did a heck of a job in the GOP Primaries already this year) shows Weld County District Attorney Kenneth R. “Ken” Buck (R-CO) ahead by 10 Points over Jane Norton (R-CO) in the Republican Senate Primary.

I case you don’t know: I ENDORSED BUCK FOR SENATE IN MAY.

Magellan Strategies Survey (R)

Colorado Senate

Republican Primary

Weld County District Attorney Kenneth R. “Ken” Buck  42 %
Former Colorado Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton  32 %
Undecided  26 %

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/Magellan-Colorado-US-Senate-GOP-Primary-Survey-Release-and-Toplines-060910-Final.pdf

Daniel G.

Amazing! Daniel…..Another male over female thing?……..Lets see if it sticks……

June 10, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates, Women | , , , , | 11 Comments

DSD……How are Political Parties gonna do in November?

While I’m hardly sanguine about the Democratic prospects this year, the rule about a new administration’s first mid-term election is hardly a universal truth.

Two clear exceptions would be 1934 and 2002, both, it must be admitted, in extreme circumstances. (1962 was a wash, with the GOP losing 2 Senators and gaining 2 Representatives.) How extreme or urgent things will look to the average voter this year I don’t know: unemployment may increase, the disaster in the Gulf has every prospect of turning into a decades-long catastrophe, and neither the financial markets nor foreign affairs look at all certain.

Which party those contingencies might favor I’m certainly not smart enough to predict.

May 21, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Counterpoints, DSD @PoliticalDog101, Government, Media, Politics, Projections, Updates | , , | 9 Comments

SE's May 4th Senate Predictions…..

Tonight, there’s going to be Senate Primaries in NC, OH, and IN. Here’s my predictions for the races:

IN-SEN: Incumbent Democratic US Senator Evan Bayh is retiring. Congressman Brad Ellsworth is unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Bank Branch Manager Don Bates Jr., Plumbing Contractor Richard Behney, former US Senator Dan Coats, former Congressman John Hostettler, and State Senator Marlin Stutzman are in the hunt for the GOP nomination. I see Hostettler winning 39-36-23-1-1 over Coats, Stutzman, Behney, and Bates Jr.

NC-SEN: Incumbent Republican Senator Richard Burr is running for re-election. Senator Burr, Asheboro City Councilman Eddie Burks, Electronics Store Owner Brad Jones, and former State Representative Larry Linney are in the hunt for the GOP nomination. Former State Senator Cal Cunningham, Accountant Susan Harris, Attorneys Kenneth Lewis and Marcus Williams, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, and Minister W. Ann Worthy are in the hunt for the Democratic nomination. I see Burr dominating Linney, Burks, and Jones 90-7-2-1. I see Marshall avoiding a runoff over Cunningham, Lewis, Williams, Harris, and Worthy 50-34-11-4 with Harris and Worthy polling at or below 1%.

OH-SEN: Incumbent Republican Senator George Voinovich is retiring. Former Bush OMB Director Rob Portman is unopposed for the GOP nomination. Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner and Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher are in the hunt for the Democratic nomination. I see Fisher crushing Brunner 67-33.

SE-779….Send him your comments……

( The Dog wishes to apologise to SE who did this post at 9:39 AM..….)

May 4, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Other Things, PoliticalDogs SE posts, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates | , | 1 Comment

SE’s May 4th Senate Predictions…..

Tonight, there’s going to be Senate Primaries in NC, OH, and IN. Here’s my predictions for the races:

IN-SEN: Incumbent Democratic US Senator Evan Bayh is retiring. Congressman Brad Ellsworth is unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Bank Branch Manager Don Bates Jr., Plumbing Contractor Richard Behney, former US Senator Dan Coats, former Congressman John Hostettler, and State Senator Marlin Stutzman are in the hunt for the GOP nomination. I see Hostettler winning 39-36-23-1-1 over Coats, Stutzman, Behney, and Bates Jr.

NC-SEN: Incumbent Republican Senator Richard Burr is running for re-election. Senator Burr, Asheboro City Councilman Eddie Burks, Electronics Store Owner Brad Jones, and former State Representative Larry Linney are in the hunt for the GOP nomination. Former State Senator Cal Cunningham, Accountant Susan Harris, Attorneys Kenneth Lewis and Marcus Williams, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, and Minister W. Ann Worthy are in the hunt for the Democratic nomination. I see Burr dominating Linney, Burks, and Jones 90-7-2-1. I see Marshall avoiding a runoff over Cunningham, Lewis, Williams, Harris, and Worthy 50-34-11-4 with Harris and Worthy polling at or below 1%.

OH-SEN: Incumbent Republican Senator George Voinovich is retiring. Former Bush OMB Director Rob Portman is unopposed for the GOP nomination. Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner and Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher are in the hunt for the Democratic nomination. I see Fisher crushing Brunner 67-33.

SE-779….Send him your comments……

( The Dog wishes to apologise to SE who did this post at 9:39 AM..….)

May 4, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Other Things, PoliticalDogs SE posts, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates | , | 1 Comment

CD……His NBA picks so far……

……..My NBA Playoff picks so far:

Western Conf. 1st Round
Game 4: Lakers over Thunder (Sat)
Game 3: Spurs over Mavs (just to piss off Daniel)-tonight
Game 4: Suns over Trailblazers (Sat)
Game 3: Jazz over Nuggets(tonight)

Eastern Conf. 1st Round
Game 4: Cavs over Bulls (Sun)
Magic over Bobcats (Sat)
Bucks over Hawks (Sat)
Heat over Celtics (tonight)

April 23, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Entertainment, Men, Sports, Updates | , , , | 4 Comments

CD's early NFC Football Predictions……

My NFL Division 2010 predictions:


AFC East: NY Jets (going out on a limb here since they were a heartbeat away from making the Super Bowl last year)

AFC North: Cincinnati (due to Big Ben’s 6 game suspension at Pittsburgh).

AFC South: Indianapolis: the defending AFC Champions are PISSED they got embarrassed by New Orleans and want to make sure nobody will ever “out-uppity” them again.

AFC West: San Diego

NFC East: Dallas (Philly is dead, stick a fork in them once they kicked McNabb to the curb, it was over).

NFC South: New Orleans: the defending Super Bowl champions are going to win this division for 2 consecutive years and make the playoffs, whether they go back to the SB remains to be seen.

NFC North: Green Bay

NFC West: TOSS-UP between Arizona and San Francisco

April 23, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, CD @ PolitcalDog, Entertainment, Media, Men, Projections, Sports, Updates | , , | Leave a comment

CD’s early NFC Football Predictions……

My NFL Division 2010 predictions:


AFC East: NY Jets (going out on a limb here since they were a heartbeat away from making the Super Bowl last year)

AFC North: Cincinnati (due to Big Ben’s 6 game suspension at Pittsburgh).

AFC South: Indianapolis: the defending AFC Champions are PISSED they got embarrassed by New Orleans and want to make sure nobody will ever “out-uppity” them again.

AFC West: San Diego

NFC East: Dallas (Philly is dead, stick a fork in them once they kicked McNabb to the curb, it was over).

NFC South: New Orleans: the defending Super Bowl champions are going to win this division for 2 consecutive years and make the playoffs, whether they go back to the SB remains to be seen.

NFC North: Green Bay

NFC West: TOSS-UP between Arizona and San Francisco

April 23, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, CD @ PolitcalDog, Entertainment, Media, Men, Projections, Sports, Updates | , , | Leave a comment

CD's….. NBA Playoff's Prediction's……

From CD……

Folks, these are my NBA Playoff predictions:

Western Conf. 1st round
LA Lakers over Oklahoma City in 6
Phoenix over Portland in 5
San Antonio over Dallas in 7
Utah over Denver in 7

Eastern Conf. 1st round
Cleveland over Chicago in 5
Atlanta over Milwaukee in 6
Orlando over Charlotte in 5
Miami over Boston in 7

Anybody else want to join this  post with their predictions?

Please do it in the comments……

April 19, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Entertainment, Media, Men, Other Things, Projections, Sports, Updates | , , | 1 Comment