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Daniel…..California Primaries: Whitman, Fiorina enjoying BIG leads BUT Campbell fares better than Fiorina in a General Election Match-Up new LA Times / USC / Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Survey shows

Hello Folks!

We’re 9 Days away from the “Golden States” Primaries and a new Statewide Survey comissioned by the Los Angeles Times and the University of Southern California done by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner shows the two Women running in the Republican Primaries holding BIG leads.

One BIG Caveat:

Are Republicans are about to nominate the weaker Republican Senate Candidate for November? The Survey shows former U. S. Rep. Tom Campbell (R-CA) would lead Incumbent Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) by 7 Points while former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R-CA) would trail Boxer by 6 Points.

Time and Time again I said that the GOP would only have a shot with Campbell as a Senate Candidate against Boxer. I WAS RIGHT spot on.

Mark my words: If Fiorina wins this (as it looks now most likely) it’s GAME OVER for Republicans in the California Senate Race.

Los Angeles Times / University of Southern California / Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Survey

California Governor

Republican Primary

Former Ebay CEO Meg Whitman  53 %
State Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner  29 %
Others  5 %
Undecided  12 %

General Election

Former California Governor Jerry Brown (D)  44 %
Former Ebay CEO Meg Whitman (R)  38 %
Others  5 %
Undecided  12 %

Former California Governor Jerry Brown (D)  45 %
State Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner (R)  31 %
Others  8 %
Undecided  14 %

California United States Senate

Republican Primary

Former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina  38 %
Former U. S. Rep. Tom Campbell  23 %
State Representative Chuck DeVore  16 %
Undecided  16 %
Others  2 %
Undecided  20 %

General Election

Incumbent Senator Barbara Boxer (D)  44 %
Former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R)  38 %
Others  4 %
Undecided  13 %

Former U. S. Rep. Tom Campbell (R)  45 %
Incumbent Senator Barbara Boxer (D)  38 %
Others  3 %
Undecided  13 %

Incumbent Senator Barbara Boxer (D)  46 %
State Representative Chuck DeVore (R)  36 %
Others  6 %
Undecided  10 %

Analysis:

See the top.

Daniel G.

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May 30, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates, Women | , , , , | 1 Comment

Jeb Bush for President?

Can the ex-Governor of Florida get past the bad name association with his brother?

Is it long enough?

Can a guy with a Mexican-American wife get elected?

Is Romney being ahead now scaring the Republican’s enough to go back to the Bush well….

For a third time?…..

Jeb Bush is showing every sign he very much wants to remain in the political fray.

Were he not the brother of a recently departed and unpopular president, there is little doubt that former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush would be an obvious, and formidable, White House prospect for the GOP.

Yet even with the family baggage, many Republicans remain convinced Bush could be a strong contender.

While he hasn’t shown any inclination to run in 2012, Bush is showing every sign he very much wants to remain in the political fray.

With little fanfare, the former governor is keeping up an aggressive campaign travel schedule and even wading into party primaries. Since the start of the year, he has stumped for gubernatorial candidates in Ohio, Alabama, Wisconsin, Nevada and California. Next month, he’s slated to raise money and talk policy with state House Republicans in Pennsylvania.

For some candidates, including Alabama GOP gubernatorial hopeful Bradley Byrne, not only is Bush responding to requests; he’s actually the one offering to help.

Bush met Byrne, a former Alabama education official, at a Republican Governors Association event last year and directed his staff to work with the candidate’s staff on education issues.

Bush then came to Birmingham last month to talk education policy with Byrne and raise money for him.

Back home in Florida, meanwhile, Bush looms as large as ever. Reporters and columnists have taken to the state’s newspapers in recent weeks to chew over just how much influence he still retains over state politics. One prominent Democratic state legislator even joked that 2010 represented Bush’s best legislative session.

More……..

May 2, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Counterpoints, Family, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates | , , , | 3 Comments

Electionprojection.com…….

Electionprojection.com

So how does the Site work?

1. Click on the Governors Races Link.

2. Then click on the Illinois State Page for example.

3. On that Page you’ll see that Scott is tracking the Governor, Senate as well as the Race in IL-10 and IL-14.

As you can see Brady is currently projected by 8,5 % over Quinn; Kirk is projected by 4,0 % over Giannoulias, Dold is projected by 0,5 (very close indeed) over Seals and Foster is projected 3,5 % over Hultgren.

http://www.electionprojection.com/2010elections/statepages/il10.php

Tacking for the Races will be initiated after the Primaries so keep an Eye on Indiana, North Carolina and Ohio after May 4th.

So, how does Scott to his Projections:

It’s a Formula and it can be found here:

http://www.electionprojection.com/2008elections/formulas.shtml

I know this is for 2008 but it’ll be updated shortly.

Scott is using Polls and most importantly Pundits for his Projections.

A Pundit for example is weighted 100 % while a State Poll is only weighted 50 % so IF for example Cook shifts Arkansas into Leans Republican that’s more weighted than the latest State Polls.

I know it’s sometimes confusing but that’s how it is.

Daniel G.

April 17, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Other Things, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates | , , , | 3 Comments

Daniel……Charlie Cook makes some notable Governor & House Rating changes…….

Hello Dog!

One of the two leading Political Handicappers in the Nation Charlie Cook made some notable Chances on some Governor & House Races this morning
New Governor Race Ratings:

Maine Governor

“Likely Democrat” into “Lean Democrat” (Open Seat)

Massachusetts Governor

“Lean Democrat” into “Toss-Up” (Deval Patrick)

Michigan Governor

“Toss-Up” into “Lean Republican” (Open Seat)

Wyoming Governor

“Lean Republican” into “Likely Republican” (Open Seat)

Alaska Governor

“Likely Republican” into “Solid Republican” (Sean Parnell)

South Dakota Governor

“Solid Republican” into “Likely Republican” (Open Seat)

http://cookpolitical.com/governors

New House Ratings:

Arizona – 1

“Likely Democrat” into “Lean Democrat (Kilpatrick, D)

Florida – 24

“Lean Democrat” into “Toss-Up” (Kosmas, D)

Illinois – 11

“Likely Democrat” into “Lean Democrat” (Halvorson, D)

New York – 24

“Lean Democrat” into “Toss-Up” (Arcuri, D)

Oregon – 5

“Likely Democrat” into “Lean Democrat” (Schrader, D)

Pennsylvania – 3

“Likely Democrat” into “Lean Democrat” (Dahlkemper, D)

Virginia – 11

“Likely Democrat” into “Lean Democrat” (Connolly, D)

With these Changes Democrats NOW at least have to defend 54 Seats who are either in the Lean or Toss-Up Column.

http://cookpolitical.com/races/house/chart.php

Obviously the biggest price today for Republicans was the Michigan Governor Race. Republicans are now projected to win at least 4 Democratic Held State Houses (Wyoming, Kansas, Tennessee and Michigan).

Daniel G.

I’m still doubtful the dem’s lose the House…Call me crazy…..That’s my call…..

The Dog

March 25, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates, Women | , | 16 Comments

Daniel’s Projections for Illinois….Quinn and Kirk are leading…. but it’s slim…..

Hello Dog Folks!

Here are now my Election Projections for Illinois

Illinois Governor 2010

Incumbent Governor Patrick “Pat” Quinn (D)  49,65 %
State Senator Bill Brady (R)  45,34 %
Others  5,01 %

Illnois Senate 2010

U. S. Rep. Mark Steven Kirk (R)  49,18 %
State Treasurer Alexander “Alexi” Giannoulias (D)  46,38 %
Others  4,44 %

Analysis:

Quinn leads because he’s running stronger in Chicago Area. Both Republican Candidates getting huge leads out of the Collar Counties and downstate Illinois. Kirk is ahead because as would expect running strong in his own Congressional District. While Giannoulias runs stronger in the Chicago Metro Area Kirk is running stronger in the suburban Chicago Area.

Next week: Daniel G’s Election Projections is looking at the Texas Governor Race between Perry and White.

Have Fun.

Daniel G.

The Dogs call…right now….I still think Alexi pulls this out……This is Democratic country for the most part in the state….and the worst of the bank stuff is probably out there…also people in the state are used this stuff…..

Quinn is interesting…we all followed the pollsters and counted him out in the primary …only to see him come back and win…..I’m curious how his looking for an increase in state taxes is going to be received……if the taxes don’t do him in…I agree with ya Daniel..he’s back….

March 12, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Politics, Updates | , , | 2 Comments

Daniel's Projections for Illinois….Quinn and Kirk are leading…. but it's slim…..

Hello Dog Folks!

Here are now my Election Projections for Illinois

Illinois Governor 2010

Incumbent Governor Patrick “Pat” Quinn (D)  49,65 %
State Senator Bill Brady (R)  45,34 %
Others  5,01 %

Illnois Senate 2010

U. S. Rep. Mark Steven Kirk (R)  49,18 %
State Treasurer Alexander “Alexi” Giannoulias (D)  46,38 %
Others  4,44 %

Analysis:

Quinn leads because he’s running stronger in Chicago Area. Both Republican Candidates getting huge leads out of the Collar Counties and downstate Illinois. Kirk is ahead because as would expect running strong in his own Congressional District. While Giannoulias runs stronger in the Chicago Metro Area Kirk is running stronger in the suburban Chicago Area.

Next week: Daniel G’s Election Projections is looking at the Texas Governor Race between Perry and White.

Have Fun.

Daniel G.

The Dogs call…right now….I still think Alexi pulls this out……This is Democratic country for the most part in the state….and the worst of the bank stuff is probably out there…also people in the state are used this stuff…..

Quinn is interesting…we all followed the pollsters and counted him out in the primary …only to see him come back and win…..I’m curious how his looking for an increase in state taxes is going to be received……if the taxes don’t do him in…I agree with ya Daniel..he’s back….

March 12, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Politics, Updates | , , | 2 Comments